Why Toyota’s deeper NASCAR concern hides behind Chevrolet’s points lead

Since Chevrolet and Toyota are separated by only ten points in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series manufacturer standings, the presumption is to believe that both corporations are on the same performance scale. But that conceals the engineer-led struggle by Toyota to get its aero dialled in as well as tire management.

A narrow room to operate, and the difficulty to either shut the long-run pace gap--despite formidable short-run technologies, are factors more threatening to the title ambitions of Toyota than the plenitude of the difference in points can lead one to imagine.

Chevy's Edge

The Next Gen Camaro ZL1, currently manufactured by Chevrolet, is praised for being a product with tight aero development. Engineers at Chevy used a large amount of wind tunnel and CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) testing, more than any prior cup program, to refine the aerodynamic layout, balance, and velocity of the subject under the 650-hp package.

State-of-the-art simulation tools aided Chevy in wringing out more speed and consistency out of the required spec chassis, an advantage in qualifying and race pace on tracks of all shapes and sizes.

Toyota's headache

Although the points battle is close, Toyota teams have continued filing complaints of excessive tire wear, especially on long and clean-air stints. That is, although Toyota has the capability to begin stints in good form, they usually cannot sustain the performance throughout a full fuel tank, causing a fall in performance relative to the Chevys in the second halves of stages.

Another constant headache for Toyota is aerodynamic balance. Because the reduced overall downforce of the current Next Gen car and its emphasis on baseline parity in aero numbers have reversed into making tiny details such as body dynamics, nose construction and underbody air management very important indeed.

The latest nose update of Toyota was focused on future goals of reduced downforce, but this has complicated balancing the adjustments at most circuits. Aero corrections approved usually take effect only at racing pace, thus giving Toyota a more difficult time to achieve the same degree of stability and responsiveness as Chevrolet under varying racetracks.

On short tracks, the intermediate Chevrolet squads also have a significant mechanical edge in gripping and suspension tuning. Theoretical equality comes in the form of Next Gen independent rear suspension and 5-way adjustable dampers, but Chevy configurations tend to maximise traction out of corners and can run faster laps more readily. Improved suspension balance also enables Chevrolets to maintain the life of their rear tires longer, which means an improved long-run pace and winning speed in races is a skill Toyota has not been able to come to terms with.

Chevrolet has optimised its bodywork to deliver more consistent and predictable downforce distribution, particularly at the rear. This enables Chevy teams to manage tire temperatures and wear rates more efficiently over a full fuel stint. The balanced downforce helps Chevys maintain pace deeper into runs.