NCAA Football: 8 teams that control their own destiny

Two weeks remain in the college football regular season before the conference championships take place. After that, the College Football Playoff field will be decided. There are still plenty of teams fighting for those four spots in the College Football Playoff, but eight teams, in particular, are in great shape to make the field as long as they win out.

Here are the eight teams that control their own destiny:

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-0)

We'll start with the most obvious and work our way to the less obvious. Alabama are ranked #1 in the College Football Playoff rankings, so naturally, they control their own destiny and will, in fact, land their fourth College Football Playoff appearance in their four-year existence if they are able to end up 13-0.

FiveThirtyEight gives Alabama greater than a 99% chance of making the College Football Playoff if they win out, all other things being equal. The Crimson Tide take on the Mercer Bears this weekend before an Iron Bowl showdown with the #6 Auburn Tigers. The winner of that game will take on the #7 Georgia Bulldogs in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) championship game.

#2 Clemson Tigers (9-1)

Ranked #2 in the College Football Playoff rankings are the Clemson Tigers, and winning out will secure them a spot in their third consecutive College Football Playoff. While they did lose to the Syracuse Orange earlier this season, the fact that they are ranked #2 right now at 9-1 means a finish of 12-1 will get them in.

Just like with Alabama, FiveThirtyEight gives Clemson greater than a 99% chance of making the College Football Playoff if they win out, all other things being equal. The Tigers take on the Citadel Bulldogs this weekend before a clash with the South Carolina Gamecocks leading up to the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) championship game against the #3 Miami Hurricanes.

#3 Miami Hurricanes (9-0)

After two straight blowout wins against top 13 teams, including a 33-point victory over the then-#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Miami are in a great spot to get into the College Football Playoff for the first time ever. As one of three unbeaten Power Five conference teams, they control their own destiny, and a 12-0 finish as Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) champions (not 13-0 because their Week 2 game against the Arkansas State Red Wolves was cancelled due to Hurricane Irma) will certainly do the job.

Just like with Alabama and Clemson, FiveThirtyEight gives Miami greater than a 99% chance of making the College Football Playoff if they win out, all other things being equal. The Hurricanes go up against the Virginia Cavaliers this weekend before a matchup with the Pittsburgh Panthers leading up to the ACC championship game against #2 Clemson.

#4 Oklahoma Sooners (9-1)

After dropping out of the top four following a disappointing home loss earlier in the season to the Iowa State Cyclones, Oklahoma are back on the inside of the provisional College Football Playoff field at #4. If they are able to win each of their three remaining games and finish the season 12-1, they will stay in that field and compete in their second College Football Playoff in the last three seasons.

Similar to Alabama, Clemson and Miami, FiveThirtyEight gives Oklahoma an extremely great chance of making the College Football Playoff if they win out, all other things being equal. However, for those three teams, the chances are greater than 99%. For Oklahoma, the chances are 98%.

The Sooners go up against the Kansas Jayhawks this weekend before a game against the West Virginia Mountaineers to close out the regular season leading up to the Big XII conference championship game in which they will likely take on #12 Texas Christian Horned Frogs.

#5 Wisconsin Badgers (10-0)

Even as one of three undefeated Power Five conference teams, #5 Wisconsin would not be in the College Football Playoff if the season ended today. However, they still control their own destiny. Because #2 Clemson and #3 Miami will battle one another in the ACC championship game, one of them must lose, thus moving Wisconsin to the inside of the College Football Playoff bubble if they finish the season with a 13-0 record.

Like the first three teams on this list, FiveThirtyEight gives Wisconsin greater than a 99% chance of making the College Football Playoff if they win out, all other things being equal. The Badgers take on #24 Michigan Wolverines this weekend before a game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers to close out the regular season leading up to the Big Ten conference championship game in which they will likely take on #9 Ohio State Buckeyes.

#6 Auburn Tigers (8-2)

Even as a two-loss team, #6 Auburn still control their own destiny to make it into the College Football Playoff. If they win out, they will be SEC champions with an 11-2 record and a win against #1 Alabama, thus moving them up to #5 in the rankings at worst. And because #2 Clemson and #3 Miami will battle each other in the ACC championship game, one of them must lose, thus moving Auburn inside of the top 4 if they finish the season with an 11-2 record.

While no two-loss team has ever made it into the College Football Playoff before, FiveThirtyEight gives Auburn a 94% chance of making the College Football Playoff if they win out, all other things being equal. The Tigers take on the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks this weekend before ending the regular season with the Iron Bowl against #1 Alabama. A win in that game will send the Tigers to the SEC championship game against #7 Georgia Bulldogs.

#7 Georgia Bulldogs (9-1)

While there are six Power Five conference teams with fewer than two losses and #7 Georgia are the only team not currently ranked in the top 6, winning out will make Georgia the SEC champions with a 12-1 record and get them into the College Football Playoff. Because #2 Clemson and #3 Miami will battle each other in the ACC championship game, one of them must lose, thus moving Georgia up to #6 at worst.

Because #1 Alabama and #6 Auburn will battle each other in the regular season, one of them must also lose, thus moving Georgia up to #5 at worst. And because the winner of that game would then take on Georgia, a win over whichever that team is would move Georgia up to #4 at worst.

Just as the case is with Auburn, FiveThirtyEight gives Georgia a 94% chance of making the College Football Playoff if they win out, all other things being equal. The Bulldogs take on the Kentucky Wildcats this weekend before closing the regular season out with a matchup against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. They will then play in the SEC championship game against the winner of the Iron Bowl, which features #1 Alabama and #6 Auburn.

#8 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-2)

Ohio State are the only team on this list whose number above does not fit their rank, as they are really ranked at #9 in the College Football Playoff rankings. However, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are ranked at #8, and they are a two-loss team not in a conference and will not have the opportunity to gain an extra quality win, thus meaning they are effectively eliminated from College Football Playoff contention.

If Ohio State wins out, they will be 11-2 as Big Ten conference champions with a win over #5 Wisconsin. This will move them up to #7 at worst since they would definitely jump over #9 Notre Dame as well. Because #2 Clemson and #3 Miami will battle each other in the ACC championship game, one of them must lose, thus moving Ohio State up to #6 at worst. And because only one of #1 Alabama, #6 Auburn and #7 Georgia can be SEC champions, two of the three must lose, thus moving Ohio State up to #4 at worst.

FiveThirtyEight gives Ohio State a 65% chance of making the College Football Playoff if they win out, all other things being equal. The Buckeyes take on the Illinois Fighting Illini this weekend before finishing the regular season with a game against #24 Michigan. They will then likely play in the Big Ten conference championship game against #5 Wisconsin.

Edited by Arvind Sriram