Virginia vs. Miami Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: December 20

The (#6) Virginia Cavaliers (8-1) will visit the (#22) Miami (FL) Hurricanes (11-1) on Tuesday night.

Virginia fell four spots in the latest AP poll after their lone season loss on Saturday, 69-61, to the (#3) Houston Cougars. Kihei Clark, the only remaining remnant of the 2019 championship squad, had a team-high eight assists but finished 2-of-8 from the field with nine points.

Redshirt junior and former top prospect Kadin Shedrick scored 16 points in the loss. He has been shooting a career-high 72% from the field this season. Leading scorer Jayden Gardner and former Indiana Hoosier Armaan Franklin also scored in double-figures. Virginia had a tough go at it from downtown, shooting a combined 27% from beyond the three-point line.

Virginia vs. Miami Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
Virginia Cavaliers	-4	0131	-170
Miami Hurricanes	+4	u131	+145

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Miami grabbed a top-25 spot two weeks ago after starting the season 10-1 with wins over N.C. State, UCF, Providence, and Rutgers. Last Saturday, they won a tune-up game against the St. Francis (PA) Red Flash 91-76. However, Red Flash played the Hurricanes tough, heading into the half tied at 37 apiece. Miami used a 54-point outburst in the second half to pull away late and win comfortably by a double-digit margin.

Two-time All-ACC guard and leading scorer Isaiah Wong dropped a 22-point, 10-assist double-double with three steals and three blocks in the win. Wooga Poplar scored 20 points on 7-of-11 from the field. 2020-21 All-A-10 (George Mason) guard Jordan Miller, 2021-22 Sun Belt POY (Arkansas State) Norchad Omier, former top prospect Bensley Joseph, and junior Anthony Walker joined Wong and Poplar in double-digit scoring. Starting guard and K-State transfer Nijel Pack missed the game due to illness but has been deemed available for Tuesday's game against Virginia.

ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The Virginia Cavaliers own a 1.16 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 9th in the nation. Miami has the 98th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.97. Virginia does well in all key stats, but spacing is where they are in the 22nd percentile. Conversely, the Hurricanes are in the 83rd percentile in defensive spacing yet top 40 in rim and three SQ PPP.

The Cavs own high-frequency numbers in cut, finishing at the rim, half court, midrange, off the dribble 3PT, and post-up shot types. They are in the top 90 in all those shot types except midrange, with a 0.80 SQ PPP (99th in the country). Conversely, the Hurricanes are top 50 in all those categories except 104th in half-court (0.96 SQ PPP), 312th in midrange (0.81 SQ PPP), and 301st in post-up (0.92 SQ PPP).

The Hurricanes have a 1.11 AdjOFF SQ, the 28th-best mark in the country. Virginia has posted a 0.93 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 39th in the country. The Hurricanes are in the top 70 in shot selection, shot making, and rim and 3 SQ PPP. The Cavaliers are 294th in the defensive shot-making metric while excelling in shot selection and rim and 3 SQ PPP.

Miami is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: cut, finishing at the rim, isolation, midrange, P&R ball screen, and transition. Conversely, Virginia is in the bottom 150 in defending all those shot types except with finishing at the rim and transition, where they own a 1.08 SQ PPP (89th) and 1.13 SQ PPP (9th).

Virginia vs. Miami Prediction

The Cavs prefer to set up shop on the half-court, but Miami plays great defense when they can get set. The Hurricanes want to get out and run in transition, but the Cavs are ninth in the country defending that shot type. Miami has a matchup advantage with cuts and midrange shots.

Still, neither are ideal in running up the score, especially against a Virginia defense that tends to improve as the season progresses. Mix that with the Cavs' slow pace of play, and this one should go under in total points.