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The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs field is set with 16 drivers set to compete for the coveted title. Moreover, only Tyler Reddick and Alex Bowman will be able to join the postseason chaos without securing a race victory in the first half of the season.
Though the playoffs contingency includes 16 drivers, four drivers are set to fall off after every three race weekends in the lead up to the NASCAR Cup Series finale at Phoenix Raceway in Arizona.
So, let's take a look at the four drivers that have the weakest chance of clearing the first hurdle of the Round of 12 in the upcoming weeks:
4 NASCAR Cup Series drivers with the lowest chance of proceeding to the Playoffs Round of 12
#4 Austin Dillon
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Austin Dillon had his redemption day at Richmond a week ago, but this hasn't made him one of the strongest competitors heading into the playoffs. In the 26 races held so far, his Richmond win was his solitary top-five finish.
Apart from this, he has only had five top-10 finishes and led a mere 119 laps en route to securing his spot in the postseason. His inconsistency has made him one of the drivers at risk of falling away in the first elimination segment before he makes it to New Hampshire.
#3 Alex Bowman
Making the playoffs cut on points was an incredibly difficult task this year. Though Alex Bowman was able to achieve the impressive feat owing to his impressive consistency, he has yet to have stellar finishes at the front of the field, despite scoring the runner-up spot twice this year.
So, if this form continues, the Hendrick Motorsports driver might be among the first to fall off the playoff list, leaving his teammates to carry the HMS banner for the rest of the season.
#2 Josh Berry
Josh Berry races for Wood Brothers Racing, a team that got its car into the playoffs in a similar way to last year. Harrison Burton took home the winner's trophy for the team en route to finishing 16th in the standings.
With Berry also slated not to have the machinery capable of fighting for the top spots consistently, he could be one of the first drivers to not make it through to the NASCAR playoffs Round of 12.
#1 Ross Chastain
While Ross Chastain won the 2025 Coca-Cola 600 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway, his other results throughout the year do not pose a strong case for him to make it through. In the 26 races held so far, he has had three top-fives and 10 top-10s.
Though this may not seem like a shabby number initially, his laps led tally closes at a timid 69 laps, the lowest among the NASCAR playoff drivers. So, despite sitting 11th in the standings, he has a lot of work to do to retain his spot in the upcoming rounds.
