Statistical analysis of the medals tally since the conception of the modern Olympic Games: Facts and predictions

The Rings of Glory

The First Olympic Games were held in Olympia, Ancient Greece from the 8th century BC to the 4th century AD. Inspired by the Goddess Athena, the celebration of athletic culture and sportsman spirit light the eternal flame that continues to this day. Although during a huge chunk of the intervening years, the Games were lost to the vagaries of time, Baron Pierre de Coubertin founded the International Olympic Committee (IOC) in 1894, which is the governing body with the Olympic Charter giving it structure and authority.

The Olympic Games have always brought together the best of the best on the same stage from all around the world. Among all the fierce competition between athletes and also the national Olympic bodies, there is an underlying sense of unity and brotherhood. A oneness forged in the hours at the gym/pool and gallons of sweat spent to perfect the art – the life of an athlete.

The evolution of the modern Olympic Games through the 20th and 21st centuries has resulted in the fragmentation of the Games into the Winter Olympic Games, the Paralympic Games and the Youth Olympic Games. However, among these, it is the Summer Olympics Games that are the most widely followed and considered the pinnacle of sports on the planet.

The Olympic Games are still, largely, participated by amateurs, a celebration of youth and vitality, the aspects that are closely related to excellence in sports. Holding up to 400 events in 33 different sports, an Olympic medal is the coveted prize that every participant looks forward to hold at least once in their lives.

We now take a look at the statistics of the medal tallies at the Summer Olympic Games by the big guns over the years. Only the top 15 contenders over the years have been listed along with India. Ranking has been done on the basis of the number of Gold Medals won, as is tradition, NOT on the total number of medals.

Ranking

Country(IOC)

No of Olympics

Gold

Silver

Bronze

Total

1

USA

26

976

757

666

2399

2

Russia

18

574

483

471

1528

3

Germany

24

411

432

461

1304

4

Great Britain

27

236

272

272

780

5

France

27

202

223

246

671

6

China

9

201

146

126

473

7

Italy

26

198

166

185

549

8

Hungary

25

167

144

165

476

9

Sweden

26

143

164

176

483

10

Australia

25

139

152

177

468

11

Japan

21

130

126

142

398

12

Finland

24

101

84

117

302

13

Romania

20

88

94

119

301

14

South Korea

16

81

82

80

243

15

Netherlands

25

77

85

104

266

India

23

9

6

11

26

Germany and Russia have participated in the Olympics under multiple entities through the years, going as far as to field two competing contingents during the same Games. Above, all the medals won by the different fractions have been combined under a single banner.

The eternal flame of the Torch

A first glance at the records shows the tremendous history of France and Great Britain when it comes to the Olympic Games, having participated in 27 editions of the event, the highest among all countries.

USA, Russia and Germany have an excellent Olympic Program and more-or-less set the standards of performance in a huge chunk of the Olympic Sports if not all.

Numbers at a glance of the top 5 Teams(and India):

Countries(IOC)

Avg No .of Gold

Avg No. of Silver

Avg No. of Bronze

Avg No. of Medals(Total)

Gold to Total Medals ratio

USA

37.5 (1)

29.1 (1)

25.6 (1)

92.3 (1)

0.4 (2)

Russia

31.9 (2)

26.8 (2)

26.2 (2)

84.9 (2)

0.38 (3)

Germany

17.1

18 (3)

19.2 (3)

54.3 (3)

0.32

Great Britain

8.74

10

10

28.9

.30

France

7.5

8.3

9.1

24.9

.30

China

22.3 (3)

16.2

14

52.6

0.42 (1)

India

0.39

0.26

0.47

1.13

0.35

It is important to note that while USA tops the charts in almost all departments, China, with its representation in only 9 Olympics is the phenomenal story here with a surprising 3rd place in terms of the average Gold Medals and 1st place in the ratio of Gold to Total Medals. It will be interesting to see how things turn out for China in the upcoming games.

Precious Metals

Sports are a culmination of enthusiasm, hard work, and passion. So it is not entirely fair to judge solely by numbers, but then again they are a pretty good indicator and numbers do not lie. If the above stats are anything to go by, and taking into consideration, the weather and climate of the host city coupled with the strength of the contingent, we can make a couple of predictions about the final medals tally board:

USA – We can safely assume USA to top the boards once more due to their proven strategic approach to the Games. They are the stalwarts and giants on the field.

China – The surprise candidate to follow USA and maybe even challenge them at the top of the board - China - is sending a 416-member strong contingent, the largest overseas representation at Rio.

Germany – The Germans have always had their standards and it can be safely said that no less than a top 3 finish will satisfy them; especially taking advantage of the considerably weakened Russian presence.

Russia/Great Britain – The Russians may be down but never out. They know how to fight tooth and nail will and not accede an inch of ground to the British.

South Korea/Australia – These are the dark horses of the tournament gauging by their performance over the last few years. They would do well to break into the top 6.

France – The perennial underachievers would have to put up an enthralling performance to do any better, especially after the rise of the new power China. A good performance at the Olympics will go a long way to bring cheer to the French public after the horrible year they have endured so far.

India – Looking at the 120-strong Indian contingent - the largest ever from India - there is reason for hope. If all goes well, Indians can hope to see more than 1 gold medal fly back from Rio. Unless there is a terrible disaster, a couple of silver and bronze medals seems like a surety, too.

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Edited by Staff Editor