Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction and Betting Tips for Sept. 26 | Game 3 2025 WNBA Playoffs

WNBA: Playoffs-Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx - Source: Imagn
Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction and Betting Tips for Sept. 26 | Game 3 2025 WNBA Playoffs. [photo: Imagn]

The Minnesota Lynx, after going 1-1 in Minneapolis, will face the Phoenix Mercury in The Valley for Game 3 on Friday. Napheesa Collier and Co. failed to grab a commanding two-game lead after wilting on their home floor two nights ago. They can reach the brink of a return to the WNBA Finals if they can bounce back with a road win.

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The Mercury, which ended 10 straight playoff losses in Minnesota, look to put the No. 1 seed on the edge of going on vacation. After proving that they can win on the road, Alyssa Thomas and her teammates hope to defend their home court in the decisive Game 3. The Mercury will also count on Satou Sabally, who delivered the clutch baskets in their 89-83 overtime win in Minneapolis.


Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Preview, Predicted Starting Lineups, Betting Tips and Prediction

Moneyline: Lynx (-192) vs. Mercury (+131)

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Odds: Lynx (-4.0 -119) vs. Mercury (+4.0 -120)

Total: Lynx (o158.5 -110) vs. Mercury (u158.5 -110)

Editor’s Note: Odds could change closer to the game.


Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury preview

Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve called out her team after surrendering a 20-point lead in their Game 2 loss to the Mercury. Reeve said she thought her veteran team did not play with the poise of a championship contender.

For Game 3 in Phoenix, the Lynx can’t afford another meltdown, particularly in front of a rabid, hostile crowd. To keep the home fans out, Minnesota must limit its turnovers, which turned the tide in Game 2. The Lynx committed 18 errors, which led to 21 points, in the previous game, the biggest reason they lost home court advantage.

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The Mercury can’t expect the Lynx to just quit after losing Game 2. Phoenix knows it is facing a battle-scarred playoff team that has unfinished business in the WNBA Finals.

Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally have been carrying the Mercury, but the team needs another reliable scorer who can lighten the load on the two. Kahleah Copper can’t have another off-night. DeWanna Bonner must have a two-way impact for the home team to have a chance of taking a 2-1 series lead.

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Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury predicted starting lineups

Lynx

PG: Courtney Williams | SG: Kayla McBride | SF: Bridget Carleton | PF: Napheesa Collier | PF: Alanna Smith

Mercury

PG: Monique Akoa Makani | SG: Kahleah Copper | SF: Satou Sabally | PF: Natasha Mack | PF: Alyssa Thomas


Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury betting tips

Napheesa Collier is averaging 21.5 points per game in the playoffs, including a 24-point output in Game 2. Phoenix will continue making her the No. 1 priority on defense, but the MVP runner-up could still eke past her 20.5 (O/U) points prop.

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Alyssa Thomas carved up the Lynx defense in Game 2 with 13 assists. She is averaging 10.0 dimes per contest in the semis, making it likely she will edge past her 9.5 (O/U) assists prop.


Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury prediction

The Minnesota Lynx uncharacteristically wilted on their home floor against the Phoenix Mercury on Wednesday. Still, they have proven all season that they have the No. 1 defense, which travels well on the road. The Lynx could regain the lead of the series by winning the game, but allowing the home team to cover the +4.0 spread.

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Edited by Michael Macasero
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