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The Phoenix Mercury will continue to host the 2025 WNBA Finals, with Game 4 of the series against the Las Vegas Aces being scheduled for October 10. Friday’s clash at the Mortgage Matchup Center could potentially be the ultimate game of the 2025 WNBA season, given that the Aces are leading the best-of-seven series 3-0.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Preview, Predicted Starting Lineups, Betting Tips and Prediction
Game 4 of the WNBA Finals will tip off at 8:00 p.m. ET (5:00 p.m. PT). The live telecast will be available on ESPN. Fans can also watch the contest via livestream on FuboTV and the WNBA League Pass (restrictions may apply).
Moneyline: Aces (-144) vs Mercury (+120)
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Odds: Aces (-3 -108) vs Mercury (+3 -112)
Total (O/U): Aces (o163.5 -108) vs Mercury (u163.5 -111)
Editor’s Note: The odds could change closer to the game. The odds listed are based on available information at the time of publication.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Preview
Even though the Las Vegas Aces had to battle through a decisive Game 5 in the semifinals against the Indiana Fever, they entered the WNBA Finals full of confidence. They had already proven themselves against the Phoenix Mercury previously, winning the regular season series 3–1.
Despite the Mercury entering the Finals with a bit more rest, the Aces have clearly been the stronger team, taking each of the first three games of the series.
Game 1 on October 3 was tightly contested, with the Aces pulling off an 89–86 win. A’ja Wilson led the charge with a 21-point, 10-rebound double-double.
Game 2 turned out to be much more one-sided. The Aces dominated in a 91–78 victory, thanks again to Wilson, who put up 28 points and 14 rebounds.
Game 3 was following a similar pattern early on, as the Aces built a 17-point lead by the third quarter. However, the Mercury made a strong comeback and managed to tie the game late in the fourth. But their valiant efforts went in vain as Wilson came through once more, hitting the game-winner to seal a 90–88 win.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Predicted Starting Lineup
Aces
G: Chelsea Gray | G: Jackie Young | F: A'ja Wilson | F: Kiersten Bell | C: NaLyssa Smith
Mercury
G: Kahleah Copper | G: Monique Akoa-Makani | F: DeWanna Bonner | F: Alyssa Thomas | C: Natasha Mack
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Betting Tips
A’ja Wilson has been dominant in the 2025 playoffs, putting up an average of 26.5 points per game. Her scoring production has increased during the Finals, where she’s averaging 27.6 points. Hence, she’s expected to go over her 25.5-point prop.
Alyssa Thomas has been the Mercury’s second-leading scorer throughout the postseason. With Satou Sabally sidelined for Game 4 due to a concussion, Thomas will likely take on a bigger scoring role. Considering she’s averaging 16.9 points per game this postseason, the over on her 16.5-point prop looks promising.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction
The Phoenix Mercury, despite coming close on multiple occasions, has had a tough time trying to beat the Las Vegas Aces. In their last six matchups, the Aces have boasted a flawless 6-0 record. A’ja Wilson keeps raising her game, while the Mercury face another setback with Satou Sabally sidelined due to a concussion.
Prediction: Expect the Aces to win and clinch a series sweep.
