Is it time to leave? The sorry state of Juan Mata

If anybody had suggested last May that we would be talking about Juan Mata leaving the club at this time of the year, probably they would have been greeted with amusement, or heavily ridiculed. Considering the present situation, that prediction, which seemed way off the mark at the time, looks to have hit the bull’s eye.

Last year, under Rafael Benitez, Mata was a regular – the playmaker in-chief, the architect, the assist machine, and the occasional goal scorer. While the new poster boy, Eden Hazard, seemed to have lost a bit of the aura that raced him away from his markers and won penalties in pretty much every league game for a few months, the little Spaniard still had his magical touch intact. Posed a question on who would most likely start the next game if only one among the two could be selected, you could safely answer in favor of the Spaniard.

In the midst of Benitez’s rotation policy, Mata was the constant – the indispensable one, the heart and soul of the team. When he played well, Chelsea played well, and usually won. The rest, like Hazard and to an even lesser extent, Oscar, were there merely to make the show look good. John Terry was no more a regular, Frank Lampard wasn’t getting a new contract no matter how well he played, Didier Drogba was long gone and the void left by his departure was being felt. The fans had to make do with a manager they genuinely disliked. They had all the right reasons to be unhappy, but it was Mata’s performances which eventually put a smile on their faces and kept the team ticking. True, Hazard was at an extremely high level for a young first season-er, but he tended to go missing once in a while and that was a bit of a concern. Come the end of the season, Mata was voted as the club’s best player by the fans for the second year running.

Juan Mata – during happier times

So, what made fans love Juan Mata so much? The stats provide an answer.

Statistical review of two seasons (stats courtesy: espnfc.com)

In the 2012-13 season, Mata scored 20 goals and assisted 28 in 64 appearances (considered across all competitions). That is, he contributed to a goal thrice in every four appearances. Interpreting in another way, if he is on the pitch, there is a 75% chance that Chelsea will score. In the season before, Mata scored 12 goals and assisted 20, in 54 appearances, which is close to a 60% probability that Chelsea will score when he plays. Cumulatively, over two seasons, Mata appeared 118 times and was involved in 80 goals. This means, the probability of Chelsea scoring is close to 68% if he plays. An incredible achievement indeed!

For a comparison, David Silva plays the same role for Manchester City. In 91 appearances over two seasons (2011-12 and 2012-13), Silva was involved in 43 goals (scored 13 times and assisted 30) – a goal probability of 47% when he is on the pitch. This suggests that City will probably score when Silva isn’t playing! Shocking indeed! Yet, Silva is picked ahead of Mata for Spain!

Where did it go wrong?

Enter Jose Mourinho. The above stats are purely in an attacking sense. They do not provide any data on defensive aspects like successful tackles and interceptions. Unfortunately for Mata, the new manager was more focused on the latter aspect of the game. The summer transfer window brought with it its own share of stories – Mourinho being ‘unconvinced’ about Mata and Luiz, being the most laughable one from a Chelsea perspective; the Rooney-Mata swap deal story coming a close second.

Come the first game under Mourinho, Mata was left on the bench – eventually an unused sub. Maybe he had been carrying a minor injury not worth risking, or maybe Hull City were too small an opponent to play him. Maybe he needed rest following Spain’s deep run in the Confederations Cup. One match as an unused substitute was not too much of a concern. He would start the next one anyway. But there was another train of thought, one of concern.

On the opening day of the season, the manager has the full squad to choose from. Hence, it usually reflects what he thinks is his best eleven. Mata was not in it. He did start the next game however, but it lasted just an hour. His first full game was against Swindon Town in the League Cup, while in the Premier League, he had to wait until the first of December to complete the full 90 minutes. Of course, fans were frustrated. The following banner sums it up.

A banner that appeared in the stands in mid-September

The experts soon got into what they do best and found out the reason: Mata didn’t track back much and help out defensively. Apparently, in all his past teams, Mourinho had room for only one player with no defensive responsibility – Wesley Sneijder and Cristiano Ronaldo being granted that luxury at Inter Milan and Real Madrid respectively. Both were miles ahead (in an attacking sense) of their midfield teammates at their respective clubs at that time, but at Chelsea, he had the freedom to choose – something he didn’t have earlier. Among Hazard, Mata and Oscar, one would have to improve significantly on the defensive side of their game, another would be given the luxury of being exempted from that work, while the other would have to be frozen out.

Now, Hazard cost 32 million and arrived with a big reputation and promise, breathtaking dribbling skills, and had had an amazing debut season. He was to be given the luxury role. Either Oscar or Mata had to work on their defensive aspects, and for reasons best known to him, Mourinho chose Oscar as his ‘preferred No. 10′. Possibly, since Oscar is also capable of playing in central midfield, he may have a better understanding about defending than Mata. Either ways, the end result was that Mata was out.

Back to statistics, Oscar, in the 2012-13 season, appeared 64 times, scored 12 goals and assisted 9. This means, an involvement in one goal every three appearances (33%). Compare this against Mata during the same season, who was involved in three goals every four appearances (75%). These statistics are partly skewed because Oscar was underutilized by Benitez since he was being played out of position (on the wing). On the contrary, it is also offset by the occasional interchange of position between the two. On the whole though, the lesser productive player in an attacking sense, Oscar, was preferred by Mourinho.

It was not that Mata did anything wrong, but Oscar had done everything right. Yes, he didn’t defend as much as the manager wanted him to. But is that a strong enough reason to prefer a statistically worse attacking player, just because the latter looked like defending better?

Hence it looked like Mourinho was not looking at past statistics one bit. The team was being picked simply based on what he saw in training. Now I haven’t watched any training session of course, but it looked like Oscar was more determined and focused on impressing the manager and providing what he demanded. Maybe Mata was putting in lesser effort, under the assumption that he will start most games since he is a fan favorite. The word ‘productivity’ holds the key here. As common people, we associate it only with what is visually apparent, that is, the attacking aspects like goals, assists, dribbles, or crosses. The professionals meanwhile, add the defensive elements to it, like tackles, interceptions, headers won, clearances, etc. According to the more apt, latter definition, Oscar was being more ‘productive’ in training than Mata. Fair enough, Oscar started more frequently. The improvement was there for all to see and Oscar deserves praise. Oscar has developed this skill of winning back the ball as soon as he loses it, something that all managers and fans like.

But why couldn’t the ‘Mazacar’ combination continue – with Hazard on the left, Oscar behind the striker, and Mata on the right? It wasn’t Mata’s true position. He would be less ‘productive’ there, both offensively and defensively. The same could be said of Kevin de Bruyne as well. Schurrle would take that role and complete the puzzle – a combination of German flair and a willingness to defend. The club was also tracking Willian at the time, and once he was signed, it spelled the end of Juan Mata. From an unnecessary luxury, Willian has become a regular now. Considering the past few games, ‘Wilzacar’ looks more likely than ‘Mazacar’ for the foreseeable future.

With half a season gone already and the World Cup soon approaching, Mata’s time is running out. Stories about him are circulating everywhere, with reports of his agent wanting showdown talks with Chelsea.

Should Juan Mata leave Chelsea now?

Obviously he is unhappy – anyone who saw the Southampton game will tell you that! His performances this season have not really been noticeable, but who can blame him for that? Any player needs a consecutive run of games to get into top gear and he been denied that basic right. To add to his misery, every move the manager has made against him has been vindicated by the end result. At this stage last season, Chelsea were eleven points behind the league leader. This season, the difference is two – a significant improvement. The team is functioning better without an unfairly frozen out Juan Mata. There is an air of certainty these days that no matter what, the team will grind out a result. The manager deserves credit for it.

If Juan Mata does not leave this month, he must be prepared for more of the same, because the manager cannot fit him into the team. Else, he must work so hard on his defensive game in training, that the manager must take notice however hard he tries to ignore. On the rare occasion that he is picked, he needs to put in a stellar performance, one good enough to start the next game. If he fails during these stages, then it is back to scratch and more bench time is likely. Even an injury to Oscar will not guarantee him a start, owing to the growing presence of Willian. Such a situation would marginalize him even further and ultimately affect his morale.

If he decides to leave now, who wouldn’t take him? He could walk into the starting eleven of any team (except Bayern Munich maybe) for every game, and treat the fans to some beautiful goals and passes. What a morale booster it would be, from being an unused sub on the Chelsea bench to starting every game for his new club! A new club, coming with it new teammates, a new challenge, the motivation of more trophies to be won, and lastly, the fire in the belly roaring “Yeah, I’ve got a point to prove!” And if the transfer is to one of Chelsea’s direct rivals, so be it – what better than denting Mourinho’s title hopes by playing for a rival and showing the gaffer that he was wrong all along!

Considering the current circumstances, it is either a bleak 6 months of convincing somebody who just does not fancy you at all, or choosing to walk away and into the welcoming arms of a dozen others. Mourinho is undoubtedly a great manager. He will eventually improve this already special player, but is that a reason worth risking your World Cup place? Where is the guarantee that Mata will start more next season? What if the Mourinho decides that Mata is just not the type of player for him, and sells him? What a waste of 6 months it would be. Loan deals for big name players never work, so a departure must be in the form of a sale. Mourinho has been stating all along that he wants to keep Mata, but if his role happens to be so bit-part, it is doubtful if anyone is buying it.

Mata must be sold now for his own good as well as Chelsea’s. Chelsea can get a sizable fee too before his value diminishes further owing to his lack of game time. In short, Chelsea must cash in on their star this window itself, while at a new club with a clean slate, a highly motivated and angry Juan Mata can force himself into Spain’s WC team. It is in the interest of all parties.

But what about the fans? For now, it’s either Mourinho, or Mata. Neither can stay while the other stays. Mourinho is equivalent to God, one who can do no wrong, one who is in for the long term. Mourinho symbolizes Chelsea. It is Mata who has to go. He deserves better.

At the end of the day, Mata will be a hero whose talents were never truly appreciated, the silent contributor, the best player that Chelsea ever bought, but one they didn’t deserve.

Goodbye and thank you Juan Mata, your impact will never be forgotten. If only it had lasted forever!