The CIES Football Observatory published a report that predicted who would finish at the top of each of the big five leagues in Europe and their data suggests that there could be new champions crowned come May 2017. CIES are an independent study centre in Switzerland who specialise in the statistical analysis of football, especially European football.
The methodology used to arrive at the final positions for each club is based on observing their results since the 2011/12 season. They also look at each team’s offensive and defensive performances apart from how much they dominate games.
Bundesliga
The German Bundesliga has been won by Bayern Munich ever since Borussia Dortmund’s short-lived domination came to an end in 2012. Die Roten have won the last four league titles and look all set to make it five in a row. They were the first club to win it four times in a row and the streak could well become five by the end of this season.
Borussia Dortmund will not finish second this season according to CIES and they have picked surprise package RasenBallsport Leipzig to maintain their run. The newly promoted club have turned heads with their rise in the German football pyramid and their undefeated run of 13 games at the start of the season was a new record for a promoted club.
On the other hand, Borussia Dortmund have struggled to convert draws into wins and their six draws in 16 games has seen them fall 12 points behind Carlo Ancelotti’s Bayern. As things stand, the title race will be contested by Bayern and Leipzig and CIES expect the promoted side to falter before the finish line, predicting a 15-point lead for Bayern.
| Final Pos | Team | Points | Current Pos |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 83 | 1 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 68 | 2 |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 62 | 6 |
| 4 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 55 | 4 |
| 16 | Ingolstadt | 35 | 17 |
| 17 | Hamburg | 30 | 16 |
| 18 | Darmstadt | 23 | 18 |
Ligue 1
Paris Saint-Germain changed the French footballing landscape when the cash-rich owners went on a shopping spree and brought some of the best players to Ligue 1 all those years ago. Prior to their dominance in the league, five different teams won it in a period between 2008 and 2012.
Since then, it has been the PSG show – until the 2016/17 season. Following the departure of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, PSG seem to have lost their way. They are currently in third place – five points behind league leaders Nice.
Led by goals from Alassane Plea and the resurgence of Mario Balotelli, OGC Nice have topped the table as winter champions and have a slender lead over AS Monaco where Radamel Falcao has found a new lease of life.
However, CIES predicts Monaco to eventually finish top of the table and finish a solitary point ahead of PSG. Nice are only expected to finish third with Lyon in fourth place.
| Final Pos | Team | Points | Current Pos |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Monaco | 79 | 2 |
| 2 | Paris Saint-Germain | 78 | 3 |
| 3 | Nice | 72 | 1 |
| 4 | Lyon | 69 | 4 |
| 18 | Dijon | 40 | 15 |
| 19 | Lorient | 40 | 20 |
| 20 | Metz | 39 | 19 |
Premier League
The Premier League looks destined to see a new champion as defending champions Leicester City have fallen by the wayside. The Foxes, who defied 5000/1 odds last season to claim their first title are now in 15th place with only 21 points from 20 games.
CIES believe Chelsea will be crowned the champions in May. The Blues are currently top of the table with 49 points after 20 games and are expected to finish with 88 points to give Antonio Conte a title in his debut season. Their run of 13 consecutive wins saw them leapfrog most of the current top six and now have a lead of five points over second-placed Liverpool.
The Anfield side are expected to finish second just two points behind – matching their best ever finish in the Premier League. Although Liverpool are one of the most successful sides in English history, they have never won a Premier League title since the top division was revamped in 1992.
Pep Guardiola, also in his debut season in England with Manchester City, is expected to finish in third place after topping the table earlier this season. Arsenal are expected to finish fourth yet again – two years after shaking off the tag as perennial fourth-place finishers since finishing third and second in the previous two seasons.
Manchester United could finish outside the top four yet again while Tottenham Hotspur, who finished third last season, could also miss out on Champions League football next season according to the prediction.
CIES also expect Swansea City, Sunderland and Hull City to be relegated. Both Swansea and Hull have new foreign managers brought in to save their season while Sunderland have a knack for playing well in the second half of the season to just about stave off relegation.
With approximately £100m guaranteed to every team who plays in the Premier League, all three teams will go all out to secure their place in the top flight.
| Final Pos | Team | Points | Current Pos |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea | 88 | 1 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 86 | 2 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 78 | 4 |
| 4 | Arsenal | 78 | 5 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur | 73 | 2 |
| 6 | Manchester United | 73 | 6 |
| 18 | Swansea City | 33 | 19 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 31 | 18 |
| 20 | Hull City | 29 | 20 |
La Liga
Barcelona have won the last two La Liga titles and three of the last four but their stranglehold on the trophy looks set to end this season. Zinedine Zidane has taken this Real Madrid sqaud to new heights – so much so that he has more trophies with this squad than he has defeats since taking over 12 months ago.
Los Blancos are still unbeaten in the league with 12 wins and four draws. They have a four-point lead at the top and also have a game in hand. Luis Enrique’s Barcelona, on the other hand, are struggling five points behind – in third place!
The defending champions have already lost twice and dropped points with five draws. Sevilla, under new boss Jorge Sampaoli, are in second place and a point ahead of Barcelona. However, CIES predict Barcelona to finish second with a commanding lead over Sevilla who will finish third.
Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid have also seen their share of problems this season and are currently in fourth place with 31 points and CIES do not expect the Rojiblancos to climb any further. The relegation zone will see the same clubs currently fighting to get out of it – Sporting Gijon, Granada and Osasuna.
| Final Pos | Team | Points | Current Pos |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Madrid | 90 | 1 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 86 | 3 |
| 3 | Sevilla | 71 | 2 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 68 | 4 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 66 | 6 |
| 6 | Villarreal | 61 | 5 |
| 18 | Sporting Gijon | 34 | 18 |
| 19 | Granada | 28 | 19 |
| 20 | (or at least on par with | 27 | 20 |
Serie A
CIES’ predictions for the final Serie A table is probably the least surprising (or at least on par with the German Bundesliga). Juventus have swept aside the competition every season. The likes of AC Milan and Inter are living on their history and reputation as they look to rebuild while Napoli and AS Roma simply don’t have what it takes to challenge over a 38-game season.
This season is no different as Juventus lead the table with 45 points. Roma are in second place with 41 points but Juve have a game in hand. Napoli are further behind in third place while Lazio are up in fourth. Milan and Inter are in fifth and seventh place respectively.
CIES expects the current top four to remain the same, predicting Juventus to win the title with 83 points and Roma finishing in second with 78 points.
| Final Pos | Team | Points | Current Pos |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 83 | 1 |
| 2 | AS Roma | 78 | 2 |
| 3 | Napoli | 77 | 3 |
| 4 | Lazio | 67 | 4 |
| 18 | Pescara | 31 | 20 |
| 19 | Crotone | 29 | 19 |
| 20 | Palermo | 29 | 18 |
