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Its February and there is every reason for a normal person to get excited about this particular month for obvious reasons. What is strikingly more obvious for a football fan is that he/she will be singing the composition written by Tony Britten as they welcome back their favorite sports competition. The UEFA Champions League returns after a two month break, for its next set of matches, starting tomorrow. 29 knockout fixtures will be played until the King of Europe is decided after the final in Estadio da Luz on the 24th of May.
The draw for the Round of 16 stage produced some explosive match-ups with Arsenal facing Bayern Munich and Barcelona facing Manchester City. Though the other 6 ties are considerably competitive, these two fixtures will ensure UEFA fill their coffers with a lot of TV money.
Tonight, Manchester City host Barcelona at the Etihad, in what is their first appearance at this stage of the competition. But that will not intimidate Manuel Pellegrini, who has good experience playing against big teams in Europe. Whatever may be the argument, one just cannot ignore the fact that, it showcases some of the most elite talent in world football.
Team News
Man City have been handed a massive boost with Fernandinho returning to full fitness. The Brazilian midfielder could prove to be a vital asset in the intense tactical battle. Sergio Aguero though, is still nursing his injury and will not be available for selection. James Milner is suspended after he picked up 3 yellow cards in group stage matches. Matija Nastasic is still doubtful, but is most likely to start alongside Kompany in defense.
The hosts come into this game on the back of an impressive victory over Mourinho’s Chelsea in the FA Cup on Saturday. Having lost to the same team a week before, Pellegrini had his team drilled in all areas and they presented themselves with good efficiency on the pitch, beating Chelsea on all fronts. Barcelona though, will present a completely different challenge, both mentally and physically. Having not played in Europe beyond December in last few seasons, it will be new for the players.
The prospect of facing Neymar and Messi will have a mental impact, but Pellegrini will take solace from Valencia’s victory at Nou Camp and use it as motivation.
Barcelona were comfortable in their weekend game against Rayo Vallecano as they dispatched 6 goals, sending out a message of what their European opponents were about to face. But Man city are no Rayo, so we can expect a good contest. The major story from the Catalan outfit though is the return of Neymar to full fitness. Coach Martino downplayed Neymar’s chances of starting against Man City, but said that he will be in starting XI if he is ready. Javier Mascherano picked up a knock on Sunday, and Martino confirmed that it would be touch and go. Reports emerged later that the defender trained well and is most likely to start.
Probable Starting Lineups
Manchester City (4-3-3) : Hart – Zabaleta, Kompany, Nastasic, Kolarov – Fernandinho, Toure, Nasri – Silva, Dzeko, Navas
Barcelona (4-3-3): Valdes – Alves, Pique, Bartra, Alba – Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta – Neymar/Pedro, Messi, Sanchez
The Tactical Battle
Martino has made tactical changes to Barcelona’s tried and tested possession game
In a game as big as this, tactics play a major role in the outcome. The fact that the two teams are from different leagues itself is enough to indicate the importance of the tactical decisions managers take. Manchester City under Pellegrini have created an identitiy for themselves as a free-flowing, attacking unit, with prolific strikers upfront and real steel in midfield. They also possess players with varied dimensional qualities adding to the flexibility and depth of the squad.
The major concern for the Citizens has been their defense. Injuries to defenders for extended spells has hampered the usage of a fixed backline, and this in turn led to them conceding goals.
Barcelona are famous, predominantly for their possession based game, atleast until last season. Under Martino, they have undergone a transformation in terms of playing style. They now allow opponents to have a bit more possession than usual, and look to catch them on the counter. This transition into a new theory has helped Barcelona on two fronts.
First, they can have their defensive abilities tested and improve that aspect of their game. Much of that can be attributed to how badly they succumbed to Bayern Munich last season.
Secondly, they now possess a Plan B of sorts, which they have been lacking for a few seasons. Though they are employing their new philsophy for most of the matches, they can go back to playing the style they were bred upon, whenever the need presents itself.
Its all about numbers
That is completely true in every sense of the word. At least, for managers like Pellegrini who are stubborn enough to claim their loyalty towards an established theory. The Chilean has brought back the long lost 4-4-2 to England, many years after Mourinho destroyed it with his 4-3-3 back in 2005. Though Alex Ferguson used a 4-4-2 in the past few seasons, it didn’t resonate the authenticity of a classic 4-4-2. Man City, this season have embraced the classic 4-4-2 with imperious authority and have reaped benefits.
In their group stage matches, Pellegrini stuck with the 4-4-2, even against Bayern Munich, and paid the price as the Germans beat them fair and square. That game which ended 3-1 in favor of Bayern, saw the Bavarian outfit dominate the play with outright possession and ruthless interplay. The above video illustrates that. One man was key for Pep Guardiola then, Phillip Lahm. Pellegrini’s decision of sticking to two midfielders against Bayern’s three, cost him the match.
Now, against Barcelona, his team face a similar player in Sergio Busquets. Probably the best defensive midfielder in the world, Busquets could be the one dictating the play from his deep position.
With a 4-4-2
If Man City start with a 4-4-2, they will have to work very hard to keep themselves in the game apart from dealing with Lionel Messi. They surely will have the numbers advantage with the Barca centerbacks, but will lose the midfield battle to the trio of Busquets-Xavi-Iniesta. But, that is not the full picture. Busquets could move into deep positions to make it a 3 v 2 situation, reducing the battle in midfield to a 2 v 2 between Iniesta-Xavi and Toure-Fernandinho.
This could benefit Man City, if Fernandinho plays a role similar to that of Javi Martinez, when Bayern played the Catalans last season.Yaya Toure is overpowering in the midfield with his physical presence and impeccable drive, and will be given the job of closing down Busquets when Barcelona have possession.
Against Bayern, Aguero didn’t close down the deepest midfielder, Lahm, and gifted the match. Pellegrini will be trying to avoid this situation again. Thus, being aware of the dual role Busquets plays, acting as a spare man for both midfield and defense, Man City will be looking to disrupt that rhythm, well before the play reaches the attacking third, to the feet of Messi and Neymar.
Going with the usual norm, David Silva, who is in hot form will be sure to start and will be positioned on the left wing. The role he took up against Chelsea on Saturday could well be the task he will be handed against Barcelona, albeit with excess defensive duties.
David Silva drifiting into central positions when Man City have possession will be the key feature for their dominance. This sort of inward-drifting not only overloads the midfield by increasing numbers for City, but also drags Dani Alves out of position, allowing Kolarov to get into attacking positions. Kolarov’s deadly crosses will be a major worry for the Barca defense, as they have shown their vulnerability to such situations against Valencia, a match which they lost.
Add to that, a target man like Dzeko and you get a brilliant tactic. But there is a downside to this, City could be caught on the break, as Dani Alves tends to play very high up the pitch, and the likes of Neymar and Messi are born to dribble.
With a 4-3-3/4-2-3-1
If Pellegrini opts to take a more reserved approach by using a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, the match could get very interesting. This strategy, gives some leeway for Pique and Mascherano, as they will have only Dzeko to deal with, but they still will be susceptible to crosses in the box, Especially when you have Jesus Navas patrolling one flank. Pellegrini will have to take a page from Valencia’s tactics at Nou Camp, if he wants to get any sort of edge.
The 4-3-3 is similar to a 4-2-3-1, with only slight changes in the orientation of the midfield triangle. There will still be those runs of David Silva into central positions, shifting the numbers game to a 4 v 3 situation in favor of the home side. This will potentially free up a midfield runner, allowing him to get forward, while linking up with the advancing Kolarov.
On the other flank, Jesus Navas will be up against Jordi Alba, making it an all Spanish affair. This one on one battle’s effect on the game will depend on the respective individual instructions given to either of the players. A more adventurous Alba, will leave gaps behind him for Navas and Zabaleta to exploit. Martino will mostly be trying to avoid this situation, so expect Alba to play conservatively.
Stuff that is not numbers
Whatever we analysed in the previous section was how Manchester City could play in the Barcelona half. It was discussed at length only because of the approach Barcelona have adopted this season. The Catalans are spending more time in the center of the pitch, than in the attacking third, which they usually used to do in previous seasons. Their possession stats fell by 3-4%, and they don’t rely entirely on Messi to get their goals. Alexis Sanchez’s 15 goals and Pedro’s 13 goals this season are a testament to that. This has given Messi an opportunity to develop himself into a more complete player, and making the hybrid striker/false-nine role his own.
This is what Man City will have to face in their half of the pitch, the trio of Neymar/Pedro-Messi-Sanchez. We have seen the situation with the midfield battles in different formations. All those can be toppled by the presence of Messi on the shoulder of City’s deepest midfielder. This deep central position of Messi in-turn forces one of the centerbacks to move out of position. This creates spacefor wingers like Sanchez, Neymar or Pedro to run into.
This has pretty much been Barca’s tactic for most of this season. Only Valencia, Athletic Club and Atletico Madrid have come close to dislodging the Catalans, Messi played in only one of those games.
Onus will have to be placed on closing the gap between lines, reducing the space for Messi to operate in, and launching swift counters with players like Navas and Toure. But if Pellegrini will stick with his comments on ‘playing with identity’ will be left to see. Using a player like Nasri in the midfield triangle could solve a lot of problems for Manchester City, given the Frenchman’s impressive form and telepathic understanding with Silva.
Conclusion
Being a home game for Man City, they will be expected to get atleast one goal, and not concede any away goal(s). The brand of football the hosts play could prove too costly for them as they are entering untested waters, and against a team of Barcelona’s stature. The word of the day will be courage, for the City players. They will have to believe in themselves and execute their manager’s plan to perfection. As for Barcelona, it will be another day in the office. Man City might have defeated Bayern Munich in group stages, but one has to remember, that match didn’t hold any importance and it was not the first leg of a knockout tie.
