4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3: What should be Chelsea's formation next season?

With the focus solely on the World Cup for a whole month’s time, transfer activity had firmly taken a backseat. One man though (and I’m not saying he’s the only one), was apparently not that keen on watching the World Cup, but busy with his homework.

Chelsea have been busy in the transfer market and this time, they’ve begun earlier than usual. Jose Mourinho has even said that he’s already done for this window. Their only significant sales have been those of David Luiz and Demba Ba. Ashley Cole and Frank Lampard have been deemed surplus while Cesc Fabregas, Mario Pasalic, Diego Costa, and Filipe Luis have been signed. And to brighten the mood further, the ‘King’, Didier Drogba has signed again.

Cesc Fabregas signs for Chelsea

Following such a shake-up, it would be a bit of a challenge to predict how Chelsea would set up next season. I’m going to state my view of it, based on the assumption that no more arrivals and departures, loan or permanent, are to follow. But before that, a brief recap wouldn’t be of much harm.

This was what I had pictured Chelsea to be playing before the start of last season. But I made a few errors in judgement there unfortunately. For instance, nobody would have expected Juan Mata to be replaced by Willian, or Oscar to start each and every game behind the striker.

This year, the team looks so different to the one last time. Jose has clearly stamped his authority when it comes to handling transfers at Chelsea and knows what types of players he needs, and how many. This time, he has not inherited a mix of teams built by his predecessors (AVB, Di Matteo or Benitez). It’s his Chelsea, exactly the way he wants. He is bound to win a trophy or two.

Now that he’s got his players, the dilemma is: 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3?

4-2-3-1

To start with, this is the strongest eleven I could think of which fits the shape.

Firstly, what are the alternatives for each position? There’s Courtois in goal, Ivanovic at right-back, Kurt Zouma and Nathan Ake at centre-back, and Ryan Bertrand at left-back. In the holding positions, the options are plenty – Ramires, Marco van Ginkel, John Obi Mikel, Oriol Romeu. Willian, Mohamed Salah, Mario Pasalic along with the returning Victor Moses and Marko Marin are the options in the attacking midfield, while the alternatives for Diego Costa include Fernando Torres, Romelu Lukaku and Didier Drogba.

For this formation to work, it requires specific players. Nemanja Matic for example, is what John Obi Mikel once promised to be – the destroyer cum passer, the big rock in the middle. His position in the side is fixed and we could see why last season. Matic took no time to adjust to the league and walked into the starting eleven in place of Mikel. When the manager has got that surety, it makes the task of choosing the other holding player easier. Mourinho could go for the box-to-box approach with Ramires, or the more refined passers in Marco van Ginkel or Cesc Fabregas. Okay, but what if Matic gets injured? To cover up, there’s a slightly lower version of him named John Obi Mikel who is just as good at breaking up attacks, and Oriol Romeu who has returned from loan.

The attacking trio is where Mourinho has an embarrassment of riches. We can assume Eden Hazard’s position on the left to be safe. The CAM role would be a toss between the Brazilians Oscar and Willian, which sees Victor Moses, Mohamed Salah and Marko Marin fighting it out with World Cup winner Andre Schurrle on the right. Some of these players are equally comfortable anywhere across the front line, so it is really a difficult to choose there.

Lastly, consider the striker. Diego Costa is supposed to be the saviour. Rumours about Romelu Lukaku refuse to fade away, and we do not know how much faith Mourinho still has in Fernando Torres. Didier Drogba has made an emotional return, but at 36 years of age, he cannot be counted upon in every game. But on the face of it, this still looks better than the trio of Torres, Eto’o and Ba from last year, doesn’t it? (Costa and Lukaku scored a combined 42 league goals last season)

Strength

There is ample cover for each and every position. If the right combination is picked, it would be unbeatable. By right combination, I mean, suppose one of the holding midfielders (like Ramires) is too far forward, one of the attacking trio must be quick enough to cover up for him (Oscar or Willian). Similar rule holds for the full backs. Hazard is not the type who sacrifices his life for his full back as Mourinho said, so there would be a requirement of a left back who must run the whole length of the pitch if needs be. This means, somebody of the pace of Bertrand, or the discipline of Azpilicueta there. On the right hand side meanwhile, Schurrle showed remarkable desire to track back last season, despite having the big presence of Ivanovic for cover. The German contributed one defensive action per game and won 42% of his duels, according to Squawka.

I hope the point is understood. The picture above is my take on what the right combination should be. Depth, and combination hold the key here.

Here’s another eleven, for those matches where not conceding is the sole objective. You could call it a vintage Mourinho team, designed specifically for counter attacking, for those games to which he decides to bring his famous bus.

If you watched Chelsea, last season, you’d have probably guessed why some players have been left out and some, probably out of position.

Weakness

Chelsea’s problem before Mourinho came back was their defence. They were playing 4-2-3-1, but too many players pushed forward and this left the back four horribly exposed to counter attacks. While combination is a strength, this is its biggest risk. With the formation consisting of 4 layers, it becomes all the more difficult for players to decide who is in which segment at a given time and who has to take responsibility and track back. One of the holding players and full backs could surge forward, and this could lead to confusion about who is covering which layer. Roberto Di Matteo’s Chelsea team is the best example of this. Mazacar were having so much fun among themselves, that others too wanted to join in.

While playing this formation, Chelsea have struggled to break down teams that are compact and sit deep. This is because the involvement of the holding duo is little, and it leaves the front four to work their way through all by themselves. Chelsea faced this difficulty against teams like Stoke City, Sunderland and Aston Villa last season.

4-3-3

When someone says 4-2-3-1, a clear picture forms in mind – two layers of midfield. But with 4-3-3, it becomes difficult to form a picture. If you’ve played EA Sports FIFA, you would have probably noticed these variants in 4-3-3: attack, flat, defend. Now, I’d like to attempt to make a Chelsea eleven with each of these (in their respective order).

As indicated above, the attacking variant has one purely holding player (Matic), and two purely attacking players (Oscar and Willian). The wide forwards cut inside to support the centre forward, full backs go up in support to fill the wide areas, and the centre backs split (drift apart). The holding player slots in between them, making a back 3 ready to stop any counter attack. The transition to defence happens as follows. The holding player pushes forward and the attacking midfielders run back, the split centre backs come closer, and the full backs rush down their flank.

The flat 4-3-3 is a bit different.

This type has 2 box-to-box players (Fabregas and Ramires), along with the destroyer (Matic). The two box-to-box players hold the key. When both push up, it becomes the attacking variant, and creates an overload in attack. When both come back, it becomes the defensive variant. Ideally, both would be in opposite moods – one pushes up and promises to track back, while the other sits back alongside the holding player.

This is aimed mainly at not conceding. There’re two holding players in there, with absolutely no intention to attack. This one comes closest to 4-2-3-1.

Strength

As seen from the above figures, the 4-3-3 offers more flexibility. With the versatility of players like Fabregas, transitions between the 3 variations can be made mid-way through games, which keep the opponent guessing. Had Matic not been at Chelsea, this might have been a risky formation to play, because, Mikel isn’t really of that quality yet. In the league last season, Matic created 23 chances and averaged 6 defensive actions per game, while Mikel created just 9 chances and averaged only 3 defensive actions per game.

Chelsea are likely to play two of Hazard, Willian or Schurrle in the wide positions most frequently. Apart from skill on the ball, what sets them apart from the rest are their pace and acceleration. This should come in handy during counter attacks, because, there are two outlets on either side to play the ball to.

Mourinho demanded all his attack minded players to track back last season, and will demand it again no doubt. But with 4-3-3, it does not become that big a compulsion. When a full back pushes forward and gets caught out of position, there are always 3 in the midfield to deal with it. Again, if the centre-backs split and the holding player slots in between them, the defence would take shape instantly. This would reduce the burden of tracking back from the wide forwards.

Weakness

As was the case with 4-2-3-1, where getting the combination right was the key, transition is the decider here. For 4-3-3 to work, it would take a good number of games to get used to, before the players can involuntarily switch between the three variants. Then, there’s the risk of the full back pushing too much forward, and in essence, occupy the same position as the wide forward.

It should work eventually, but while the team acclimatizes to it, Chelsea may have already dropped some points in the initial stages.

Conclusion

Both formations have their own ups and downs, but I am of the opinion that Chelsea would be much more watchable and entertaining playing 4-3-3 rather than 4-2-3-1. Some teams in the Premier League and across Europe do play a 3 man defence very frequently these days, and Chelsea have exactly the right type of players to exploit the space left by the wing back in the wide areas.

Besides, players like Fabregas, Oscar, van Ginkel and Ramires are so versatile that it becomes quite a task to classify each one as a completely attacking or holding player. They’d rather be given more freedom about choosing their role, which is provided by 4-3-3 (due to its different variations, namely, attack, flat, and holding). It would be a much more fliud formation compared to a formation where the move must pass four layers (4-2-3-1).

Once the season gets going, Mourinho could even play 3-5-2 or 4-4-2 with the duo of Drogba and Costa forward and fool us all.

But for now, I’d like to remind Jose, this. You won your first Premier League title playing 4-3-3. So, please keep it that way, and hope for the same result.

Stats courtesy: Squawka