Madrid Open 2024: Men's singles draw analysis, preview and prediction ft. potential Rafael Nadal-Carlos Alcaraz final

The men's singles draw for the 2024 Madrid Open is out, bringing together some of the biggest names in the ATP world.

With World No. 1 Novak Djokovic announcing his withdrawal, Jannik Sinner will be the top seed in the Madrid Open. After suffering a minor leg injury in the Monte-Carlo Masters, the Italian has cleared to compete in Madrid.

Two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz will also return to the ATP tour following a quarterfinal finish in the Miami Open. He will be making his fourth appearance in the Madrid Open.

Clay court legend Rafael Nadal is also expected to feature in the Madrid Open. He was recently seen competing in the Barcelona Open, where he lost to Alex De Minuar in the second round.

Without further ado, let's analyze the men's singles draw in the upcoming Madrid Open 2024 and how things could turn out in the Masters 1000 event.

First Quarter: Jannik Sinner will be keen to continue his purple patch in Madrid

Jannik Sinner at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters - Day Five

Seeded players: (1) Jannik Sinner, (5) Casper Ruud, (9) Grigor Dimitrov, (16) Karen Khachanov, (19) Adrian Mannarino, (22) Nicolas Jarry, (29) Cameron Norrie, (32) Jordan Thompson

Expected Quarterfinal: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud

Dark Horse: Karen Khachanov

Analysis: World No. 2 Jannik Sinner will return to the men's tour after his semifinal exit at the Monte-Carlo Masters. The Italian is included in the first quarter of the men's draw alongside seeded players such as Casper Ruud, Grigor Dimitrov and Karen Khachanov. He will receive a first-round bye and could begin his campaign against Lorenzo Sonego in the second round.

In form Australian Jordan Thompson is expected to face Sinner in the third round and former World No. 8 Karen Khachanov will be his likely opponent in the fourth. If the top seed manages to navigate past these challenges, clay court specialist Casper Ruud is favorite to meet him in the quarterfinals. The Norwegian will enter the Madrid Open on the back of a runner-up finish in the Monte Carlo Masters and a sensational title-triumph in the Barcelona Open.

While Khachanov has the potential to halt Sinner's run in the last 16, Grigor Dimitrov could provide stiff competition to Ruud. Considering their recent form and results at the highest level, Sinner and Ruud will still be the clear favorites to set up a quarterfinal clash in Madrid.

Predicted quarterfinal: Jannik Sinner def. Casper Ruud

Second Quarter: Five-time champion Rafael Nadal makes his 20th appearance in the Madrid Open

Seeded players: (3) Daniil Medvedev, (6) Stefanos Tsitsipas, (10) Alex De Minaur, (14) Ben Shelton, (17) Alexander Bublik, (20) Frances Tiafoe, (25) Sebastian Korda, (30) Jiri Lehecka

Expected Quarterfinal: Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Dark Horse: Ben Shelton

Analysis: Rafael Nadal will continue his clay court swing in the Madrid Open 2024 and make his record 20th appearance in the event. Despite a second round loss in the Barcelona last week, he will still be among the favorites to make a deep run.

Russian No. 1 Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas will be the top two seeds in the second quarter of the draw. While Medvedev could take on Sebastian Korda in the third round, Tsitsipas faces a potential test against Jiri Lehecka.

The competition could get fiesty if Rafael Nadal and Ben Shelton find their strides in Madrid. Nadal will begin his campaign against 16-year-old Darwin Blanch in the first round and could set up a rematch against Alex De Minaur in the second round. If the Spaniard manages to hurdle past the first two rounds, he will then need to defeat the likes of Frances Tiafoe and Stefanos Tsitsipas to secure a place in the last eight.

Shelton, on the contrary, is expected to begin his campaign against Emil Ruusuvuori in the second round. He might then lock horns with Roberto Carballes Baena in the third and Daniil Medvedev in the fourth. The American will enter the Madrid Open on the back of a title-winning run in the U.S. Men's Clay Court Championships. He will fancy his chances of making a deep run.

While Tsitsipas and Medvedev will be the favorites on paper, they could face stiff competition in the second quarter of the draw. It will be interesting to see if they manage to pass tricky tests along the way and secure a place in the last eight.

Predicted quarterfinal: Stefanos Tsitsipas def. Ben Shelton

Third Quarter: Alexander Zverev faces stiff competition in his quest for a third title in Madrid

Seeded players: (4) Alexander Zverev, (8) Hubert Hurkacz, (12) Taylor Fritz, (15) Tommy Paul, (18) Sebastian Baez, (21) Francisco Cerundolo, (26) Thomas Martin Etcheverry, (31) Arthur Fils

Expected Quarterfinal: Alexander Zverev vs Hubert Hurkacz

Dark Horse: Sebastian Baez

Analysis: Two-time champion Alexander Zverev will make his seventh appearance in the Madrid Open this week. The German has made a solid start to the season and will be fancy his chances of making a deep run. He is expected to begin his campaign against Borna Coric in the second round.

Americans Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul will also be included in the third quarter of the men's draw. While Paul will make his first appearance on clay this year, Fritz will enter the event on the back of a solid runner-up finish in the Munich Open. The duo could set up a quarterfinal clash against each other if they manage to win their matches in the previous rounds.

Clay court specialist Sebastian Baez will also add to the competition in the third quarter of the men's draw. The Argentinian has already captured two titles in the South American clay court swing this year and will be eager to prove his potential in Europe. He will need to get past the likes of Zizou Bergs, Taylor Fritz, Hubert Hurkacz or Arthur Fils en route to the quarterfinals.

Alexander Zverev, Hubert Hurkacz and Sebastian Baez are among the favorites to enter the quarterfinals, considering their recent form and record on clay.

Predictied quarterfinal: Alexander Zverev def. Sebastian Baez

Fourth Quarter: Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz begins his campaign in the European clay court swing

Alcaraz Mutua Madrid Open - Day Fourteen

Seeded players: (2) Carlos Alcaraz, (7) Andrey Rublev, (11) Holger Rune, (13) Ugo Humbert, (23) Jan-Lennard Struff, (24) Tallon Griekspoor, (27) Alejandro Davidovic Fokina, (28) Lorenzo Musetti

Expected Quarterfinal: Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev

Dark Horse: Jan-Lennard Struff

Analysis: World No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz will return to the men's tour in the Madrid Open after missing the Monte-Carlo Masters and the Barcelona Open. He could begin his title defence against Arthur Rinderknech or Alexander Shevchenko in the second round.

The Spaniard then faces a tricky challenge against Lorenzo Musetti in the third round and will potentially square off against Jan-Lennard Struff in the fourth. Struff recently captured his first ATP title in Munich and will be high on confidence entering the Madrid Open.

Andrey Rublev, meanwhile, will look to rediscover his form in the Madrid Open. The Russian has chalked up shocking early exits in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona and will be hoping to find steady the ship in Madrid. He will need to get past the likes of Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Holger Rune to cement his place in the last eight.

Considering their recent results and record on clay, Carlos Alcaraz, Holger Rune and Andrey Rublev will be among the favorites to reach the quarterfinals. Rublev's dismal form in the last couple of weeks increases Rune's chances of outfoxing him in the fourth round.

Predicted Quarterfinal: Carlos Alcaraz def. Holger Rune

Semifinal Predictions:

Jannik Sinner def. Stefanos Tsitsipas

Carlos Alcaraz def. Alexander Zverev

Final Predictions:

Carlos Alcaraz def. Jannik Sinner