Is Kipchoge the favorite to win the Olympic marathon in Tokyo?

Until October 2020, almost every fan of long-distance running and quite a lot of experts would have picked the man widely regarded as the GOAT as far as men’s marathoning is concerned, as the favorite to win the marathon at the Tokyo Olympics.

On that day, in a still-unclear development that Kipchoge described as a block in his ear, caused him to slow down and eventually finish 8th. That has raised questions about whether Kipchoge is past his peak and whether there are other contenders for the throne.

So if not Kipchoge, who?

In the world of marathons, making the Ethiopian and Kenyan Olympic teams is much like making the US and Australian swimming teams. The local and national races in Ethiopia and Kenya are arguably tougher than the Olympic competition. Thanks to the Olympic rules which allow only 3 athletes per country, any Kenyan or Ethiopian needs to only beat 5 other runners (two of his countrymen and three from their fierce competitors) rather than the scores of their own countrymen at their respective national races.

So it is likely the podium is going to be composed of 3 of these 6 people. However, there could be unexpected lifetime-best performances from one of the Americans, Japanese (host country and one of the best countries for running in the world, currently) and some of the smaller nations. But I am likely to be more surprised to see a medallist who’s not East African than by Kipchoge being beaten.

Kipchoge's teammates?

The other members of the Kenyan Olympic team are Lawrence Cherono and Amos Kipruto, both of whom finished well in the Valencia Marathon in December 2020, with Lawrence finishing ahead of Amos. Lawrence also has some solid big city racing in his legs, having won both Boston and Chicago in 2019.

Other marathoners who have beaten Kipchoge

Kipchoge may also be heaving a sigh of relief that Berhanu Legese isn’t on the team. Legese won the Tokyo Marathon 2020 and was also 2nd at Valencia in December 2020, the race won by Lawrence Cherono, thereby being top of the World Athletics ranking for the marathon for 2021. While the composition of the Ethiopian team is unclear at the moment, thanks to an appeal by Kenenisa Bekele, it is likely that Shura Kitata and Lelisa Desisa will be going to Tokyo.

Kitata and Desisa finished 1st and 2nd respectively at the Ethiopian Olympic trials. Bekele, the 2nd fastest man of all time in the marathon, only 2 seconds behind Kipchoge’s world record, skipped the Ethiopian trials, citing insufficient recovery time from the date to the Olympic race. Sisay Lemma, who finished 3rd in the trials, may be the 3rd if Bekele isn’t given a place on the team, despite his legendary status. Of the 4 - Kitata, Desisa, Lemma and Bekele, only Kitata has finished ahead of Kipchoge in a race that both have run.

So you could say he has a better head-to-head record, although Olympic competitions witness special considerations, where athletes have been known to sacrifice their own medal hopes for better placed countrymen. Notably, Kitata won the 2020 London Marathon in which Kipchoge finished 8th and is also the youngest of the lot. Kitata also beat Desisa by 1 second at the Ethiopian trials (and Kipchumba by 1 second at London 2020!). So he’s a very good tactical racer.

But then, Kipchoge has beaten Kitata in 2018 and 2019 at London. Kipchoge is also likely to have the measure of Desisa, who was one of the 3 athletes alongside him, for the Breaking-2 project.

And Desisa had a less than notable experience with it. But that was 3-4 years ago.

Kipchoge's current form vs those of his rivals

On recent form, Cherono is likely a favorite to medal, if not win the gold. And let’s not forget what Stephen Kiprotich did on a warm, hard day in 2012. The London gold medallist was also in the race in Enschede, finishing fast enough to make the Ugandan team for the Olympics, although it is likely he isn’t in great shape to beat Kitata and Cherono, let alone Kipchoge.

Kipchoge is world class even on his bad days

One last thing - on what was a below par day, Kipchoge still finished in 2:06:49 in London 2020, before coming back in 2021 to win a race in Enschede (a hastily but well-organized alternative to the Hamburg Marathon, which was canceled), organized primarily to boost his confidence and showcase his form. And he set the fastest time run in 2021 - 2:04:30, until the Milan Marathon in April 2021. He can rest easy about that - none of the 3 Kenyans or the Ethiopians who ran faster than he did at Enschede, at Milan, are going to Tokyo. Never write the GOAT off!