5 reasons why Bruce Pearl's Auburn might not win 2024 NCAA tournament

In an impressive SEC season, Bruce Pearl and Auburn Tigers are the last top 4 team standing. While the other top three SEC Tournament seeds lost in the quarterfinals, Auburn will play in Sunday's championship. They defeated Mississippi State 73-66 to secure a spot in the SEC summit clash against Florida Gators. However, this might not be an Auburn team that's capable of taking home the NCAA Tournament title.

At 26-7, the Tigers have had a quality season. Their big forward, Johnni Broome, is one of the most efficient post players in college basketball. But Auburn has had its fair share of struggles this year. The Tigers lost three of their last five games in February, and while Auburn has reached as high as No. 8, they've got plenty of issues. Here are five that could keep the Tigers from the NCAA crown.

5 reasons Bruce Pearl's Auburn Tigers won't win the 2024 NCAA Tournament

Led by Jaylin Williams, Auburn and Bruce Pearl have struggled against top competition this season.

1.Quad 1 record is a killer.

Auburn's No. 5 NET ranking is phenomenal. Less phenomenal is the 1-7 record in Quad 1 games. Yes, Auburn is 24-0 in Quad 2 and below games. That might get them to the Sweet 16. Winning six straight games in the NCAA Tournament will doubtlessly necessitate beating several quality teams consecutively.

2. Guards are inconsistent

Bruce Pearl's Auburn teams are normally chock full of explosive guards. Auburn has a ton of guards this year. For that matter, the Auburn players averaged 13.5 minutes per game or more.

But none of Auburn's guards are consistent. Chad Baker-Mazara is Auburn's most dependable wing player, and he usually plays off the bench. KD Johnson and other AU guards aren't dependable down the stretch.

Starting guard Aden Holloway shoots just 23.6% in Auburn losses, and fellow starter Denver Jones shoots 36% in losses.

3. Auburn is vulnerable to offensive rebounds.

Auburn's stats for allowing offensive rebounds are pretty terrible-- they allow 11.5 per game, which is 314th nationally. For that matter, the Tigers allowed 13 or more offensive rebounds eight times this season. They were just 5-3 in those games. The Tigers, even with an impressive frontcourt, can be beaten up on the glass.

4. The Tigers have some ugly shooting games.

Auburn, despite being one of the top scoring teams in the SEC, has not been immune to ugly offensive performances. Nine times this season, Auburn has shot under 43%. Auburn is just 4-5 in those games. Even comparatively mediocre defensive squads like Appalachian State, Virginia Tech and Kentucky have managed to slow down the Auburn offense.

5. The Tigers haven't done well in close games.

March Madness generally means winning a few close games. However, Auburn's record in games is poor. In 2023-24, the Tigers are 0-4 in games decided by six or fewer points. In fact, the last time Auburn won a close game was Febuary 2023. It's probably unrealistic to expect a series of blowout wins for an NCAA title. It's also unrealistic for Bruce Pearl and Auburn to suddenly start winning close games.