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When it comes to Duke basketball, there's little middle ground. Some people love the Blue Devils, while some love to hate them.
The No. 4 seed in the South bracket, Duke has had a good but not great season. The 24-8 Blue Devils won neither the ACC regular season crown or the conference tournament, but many are picking Duke for big things in March.
Frankly, don't be fooled. To adapt a line from Rick Pitino, Coach K isn't walking through the door. Jon Scheyer has a talented but inconsistent team. He has little depth, and Duke seems likely to struggle with differing styles of play.
It's time to take a deep dive on why the NCAA Tournament will not be kind to Duke in 2024.
Five reasons why Duke could tank in 2024 March Madness
1) Duke isn't defensively elite
While the Blue Devils are a capable offensive team, they're not that brilliant defensively. Further, they struggle when offenses exploit them. In 32 games, Duke has allowed opponents to shoot 45% or better 13 times, going 5-8.
The same issues exist with 3-point defense. When Duke's opponents shoot 35% from the 3-point range, the Blue Devils are 4-7. First, Duke's inability to win with a less than steller defensive effort is concerning.
Second, the frequency with which opponents shoot decent percentages speaks volumes. Duke doesn't defend well enough to win the NCAA Tournament.
2) Duke has no depth
Another big issue for a tournament in which teams travel and play two games in 48 hours is a lack of depth.
Duke uses seven players for more than 8.3 minutes per game and only six for more than 11.7 minutes. That leaves the Blue Devils unprepared for even minor injuries or foul trouble.
Quick turnarounds and unusual circumstances tend to reward teams that can go ten players deep on the bench. Duke basically plays six players most of the game. It's unrealistic to expect that lack of depth not to matter in the NCAA Tournament.
3) While Duke's offense is good, the margin of error is thin, and Houston is daunting
Remember how bad Duke's record is when the opponent plays well? The same thing happens offensively. When Duke fails to shoot 45%, it goes 5-6. When it fails to shoot 28% from 3-point range, it's just 3-4.
A trip past the Sweet 16 will likely require beating Houston. Houston has only allowed opponents to shoot 45% four times all season. Opponents have failed to shoot 28% from the 3-point range in 16 of Houston's 34 games.
If Duke can survive the first two rounds (and more on that directly), Houston is almost an impossible matchup.
4) The first two potential matchups are tough
Vermont isn't getting a ton of respect, but they could bother Duke significantly. The Catamounts allowed just 63.0 points per game, ninth fewest in the nation.
Only eight teams all season were allowed by Vermont to shoot 45%. On 14 occasions, Vermont held its opponent below 28% from 3-point range. It's not Houston but is from a similar DNA.
The second-round brings a meeting possibly with a surging Wisconsin team that nearly won the Big Ten. The potential alternative is James Madison, within the nation's top 10 in scoring (84.4 ppg) and 3-point defense (28.8%).
Duke will be favored in all of those potential outcomes, but none are certainties for a relatively young team without depth.
5) The other side of the bracket would get Duke
Even if the Blue Devils somehow pull one out against Houston, the bottom of the bracket is one of the tougher lower halfs in recent memory.
Marquette - if Tyler Kolek is good to go - is one of the most potent teams in the nation. Kentucky has as much talent as anyone and plays well against wide-open competition. Frankly, the Wildcats would probably have more trouble with No. 6 seed Texas Tech than Duke.
At some point, the pattern of upsets that would give Duke a reasonable path gets very long. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils are 3-3 in their last six games. Champions of nothing, still developing and playing for an inexperienced coach, Duke isn't as fearsome as the name on their jerseys. NCAA Tournament glory is at least another crop of All-Americans away.
