“Final Four or bust”: Analyst claims Purdue’s elite retention makes them Big Ten favorites for 2025–26

The Purdue Boilermakers reached the Sweet 16 of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, where they lost to eventual runners-up, the Houston Cougars. Coach Matt Painter's team finished the season with a 24-12 overall and 13-7 Big Ten record.

Against all expectations in a transfer portal-rich offseason, the Boilermakers returned 86% of their starters from last season, including Wooden Award finalist Braden Smith who averaged 15.8 points, 4.5 rebounds and 8.7 assists last season.

During this week's segment of CBS College Basketball Show, analyst Jon Rothstein labeled Painter's team as Big Ten title favorites and tabbed them as a Final Four team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament due to their high player retention rate (1:58).

"The Big 10 for the 25-26 college basketball season is it feels like a Final Four or bust-type year for Purdue," Rothstein said.

"And I don't see how that sentiment can be argued. If you were Purdue, you have done the ultimate ultimate thing in retention. You have been able to retain almost 90% of your scoring from a team that came within inches of beating Houston in the Sweet 16 last March.

"That includes National Player of the Year candidate Braden Smith and also Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn. And those three players were all starters when they went to the national championship game with Zach Edey in 2024 and lost to UConn. They return 86% of its scoring. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: that type of retention is unheard of in college basketball."

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Purdue coach aims for Final Four run

Apart from Braden Smith, the Purdue Boilermakers welcomed back Fletcher Loyer, Trey Kaufman-Renn, Gicarri Harris, CJ Cox, Raleigh Burgess and Daniel Jacobsen.

During an interview with the Big Ten Network on Wednesday, coach Matt Painter praised his returning stars while revealing his aim for a Final Four run next season.

"That's their legacy, their Purdue education, their Big Ten championships, hopefully another Final Four run," Painter said. "Now, it's something where they can come back here at all times, have their jerseys in the rafters, and that's pretty cool."

In addition to the Boilermaker's returning stars, Painter also recruited former South Dakota State center Oscar Cluff (17.6 points and 12.3 rebounds) and former North Florida forward Liam Murphy from the transfer portal.

The Boilermakers' returning stars have rocketed Matt Painter's team atop several way-too-early rankings ahead of the 2025-26 season.