North Carolina: North Carolina vs Alabama Prediction, Odds & Picks for March 28

North Carolina and Alabama lock horns in the Sweet 16 of the 2024 NCAA men's basketball tournament on Thursday night at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California.

North Carolina (29-7) is back in the NCAA Tournament after suffering a disappointing 2022-23 season. The No. 1 Tar Heels eased through to the Sweet 16 with a pair of double-digit wins against Wagner (90-62) and Michigan State (85-69).

They now face a tough Crimson Tide squad that has been an offensive machine this season. No. 4 Alabama (23-11) tops the league in scoring at 90.7 points and its offense was in full force in its 109-96 first-round win against Charleston.

The second round was more of a defensive struggle for the Crimson Tide, but they still pulled off a 72-61 victory over Grand Canyon to arrange a marquee clash against North Carolina.

The winner of their Sweet 16 encounter will move on to the Elite Eight and face the winner of the Clemson-Arizona encounter.

North Carolina vs Alabama Prediction

After a forgettable 2022-23 season, North Carolina is back at the top of the ACC as they edged Duke to claim the regular season title. Their run was stopped in the ACC Tournament by a rampaging North Carolina State in the final. Their efforts for the season were enough for the selectors to hand them one of the top seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

North Carolina has been consistent on both sides of the court. They average 81.8 points in offense and have given up 70 ppg in defense. The Tar Heels rank eighth in rebounding at 40.9 rpg and have a decent passing game, averaging 14.4 assists per contest.

Four Tar Heels players have averaged in double figures this season with RJ Davis leading the pack. Davis is the top option on offense for the Hubert Davis-coached squad at 21.3 ppg. He has also tallied 3.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.2 steals per contest. Backing up Davis is Armando Bacot with 14.4 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 1.6 apg and 1.5 bpg.

Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan have provided additional firepower for North Carolina, with Ingram averaging 12.2 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 2.1 apg and 1.4 spg while Ryan has scored 11.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg and 1.2 apg.

On the other hand, Alabama has been an offensive juggernaut this season, topping the nation at 90.7 ppg. They also rank high in the rebounding department at 39.7 (21st) and in assists at 16.0 (32nd).

Mark Sears is the team's top performer with 21.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 4.2 apg and 1.7 spg. Aaron Estrada is Sears' backcourt tandem and has played good music with him. He has tallied 13.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 4.7 apg and 1.7 spg.

Grant Nelson and Rylan Griffen have also contributed big numbers for Alabama at 11.4 ppg and 11.0 ppg, respectively. Furthermore, Nelson is the Crimson Tide's top defender with 1.5 blocks per game.

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North Carolina vs Alabama: Betting odds

Aaron Estrada is averaging 13.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 4.7 apg and 1.7 spg. He and Mark Sears are Alabama's 1-2 punch.

According to BetMGM, North Carolina is a 4.5-point favorite to win over Alabama in the Sweet 16 encounter. The Tar Heels' moneyline is pegged at -200.

On the other hand, Alabama is the underdog with a +165 money line. The game's over/under is set at 173.5.

North Carolina vs Alabama: Head-to-Head

Both teams have met 11 times since 1949-50 and North Carolina holds a 6-5 advantage in their head-to-head.

North Carolina vs Alabama: Where to Watch

The North Carolina-Alabama matchup will air on CBS with Paramount+ providing live stream content of the clash. Tipoff is set at 9:39 pm ET/6:39 p.m. PT.

North Carolina vs Alabama: Key Injuries

Alabama

Latrell Wrightsell Jr is questionable for the game against North Carolina due to a head injury.

Davin Cosby Jr is out indefinitely due to a foot injury.

North Carolina

North Carolina will play with no injuries among their players.

North Carolina vs Alabama: Pick

The match is a tossup with both teams capable of blowing past their opponents. However, North Carolina has proven to be a tougher customer when the game is on the line.

Alabama needs to step up on their defense to hold off the Tar Heels' best offensive options in Davis and Ryan. North Carolina should put a clamp on Sears to stop the Crimson Tide offense that is No. 1 in the nation.

Pick: North Carolina (-4.5, -200)