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March Madness fans, the Sweet 16 has almost arrived. While the opening rounds of the NCAA Tournament are always anticipated, the best basketball frequently comes from the second weekend. There have been few upsets so far-- only No. 7 seed Duke remains from outside the top five seeds in any region. But Friday and Saturday of Sweet 16 action promise exciting matchups and upsets.
Women's March Madness upset predictions 2024
No. 2 seed UCLA vs. No. 3 seed LSU
Odds: LSU -3.5 (-175)
This matchup jumps off the page because No. 3 seed LSU is actually favored over the higher-seeded UCLA Bruins. Frankly, the Bruins deserve more respect. UCLA averages 17.0 points per game scoring margin over opponents and outrebounds foes by 14.2 boards per game.
The Bruins, aside from 5-foot-4 Londynn Jones, have large and athletic guards, like 6-foot-7 center Lauren Betts, who can battle with LSU's size and athleticism. UCLA also has plenty of depth, with 10 players averaging 11.9 minutes per game or more.
LSU has played well lately, losing only to South Carolina (by just seven points) since the end of January. But the Tigers are a distracted bunch, with Angel Reese's constant drama and coach Kim Mulkey brooding over negative news coverage. The Tigers lack prominent perimeter scorers, and UCLA will match their size and athleticism.
Pick: UCLA by 2.
No. 1 seed USC vs. No. 5 seed Baylor
Odds: USC -3.5 (-175)
The top-seed Trojans are meager 3.5-point favorites over No. 5 seed Baylor. Southern Cal heavily depends on freshman JuJu Watkins, who has been astonishing (26.9 ppg) but is preparing for just her third-ever NCAA Tournament game. Only two other USC players average over 8.0 ppg, and the Trojans were just +3.5 rebounds per game better than their opponents.
Meanwhile, Baylor has won eight of its last nine games and comes in fresh off knocking out Virginia Tech in the second round. Baylor doesn't have a superstar but has seven players averaging 7.4 points per game or more. The Bears outrebound foes by 7.5 rebounds per game, holding opponents to just 26.2% 3-point shooting.
The beginning moments of this game will be key. If Watkins gets hots and Southern Cal plays from ahead, they'll probably surge into the Elite Eight. However, given Baylor's wealth of strong, athletic players, an inexperienced USC team could panic under March Madness lights if they can get Watkins slowed down and stake an early lead. That's the guess at a possible outcome here.
Pick: Baylor by 5.
No. 2 seed Notre Dame vs. No. 3 seed Oregon State
Odds: Notre Dame -3.5 (-175)
Oregon State is an interesting team. Led by standout post player Reagan Beers, the Beavers are excellent defensively. During the season, OSU held opponents to 35.5% shooting, which is the eighth best in the nation, including just 38.7% from the 2-point range.
They don't force turnovers-- getting just 9.2 per game, the lowest in the nation. But they make opponents miss and then rebound (31.0 defensive rpg, fifth nationally).
Notre Dame, on the other hand, is an offensive-first group. The Fighting Irish score 79.0 points per game, 18th nationally, and lean heavily on freshman Hannah Hidalgo. Notre Dame forces bunches of turnovers but isn't great on the glass (+4.7 rpg over opponents). A thin bench leaves Notre Dame prone to foul trouble.
Oregon State can get the Irish into foul trouble and then just outlast them late. Hidalgo has been a phenomenal talent, but the lack of NCAA Tournament experience could rear its head. In a grinder of a game, the prediction is that OSU's brand of March Madness pulls it out in overtime.
Pick: OSU by 2 in overtime.
Which team has the lowest odds to win March Madness 2024?
South Carolina remains a massive March Madness favorite to win the NAA Tournament at -150. Iowa and Caitlin Clark are the second most likely winners at a distant +750, with LSU (+850) the only other team to come in below +1000.
In terms of longshots, Colorado (slated to play Iowa) is the most unlikely March Madness winner at +20000. Baylor and Gonzaga, each slated to face No. 1 seeds, are nearby at +15000, as is No. 7 seed Duke, about to face No. 3 seed UConn.
