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Is it a smooth path from 5-star recruit to NFL Draft 1st round pick? Not necessarily. Admittedly, this is one draft class, and viewing it requires some guesswork.
However, analyst Dane Burgler from The Athletic identified 20 prospects in the 2024 class as pure "first round grade" talents. A deep dive on that 20 told some stories about recruiting. Here's the breakdown:
How many first-round NFL Draft 2024 prospects are 5-star recruits? Exploring colleges that best convert to the NFL.
Of Brugler's 20 Draft entrants with first round grade talent, here's the breakdown on where 247sport.com's Composite rating placed them out of high school.
Only four of the top 20 prospects in the 2024 NFL class were five-star recruits. Most of the likely first-round choices were four-star prospects. But just as many were three-star recruits, like Fashanu and Toledo's Quinyon Mitchell, as were five stars. Jared Verse is the lone outlier, the NFL prospect who seemingly came from nowhere.
Five star to pro pipeline?
If there's a five star to NFL pipeline, it's safe to guess that Alabama is prominently involved. Of the four five-star recruits who are likely to be NFL first-round picks, Dallas Turner and JC Latham are Tide products.
Georgia contributed lineman Amarius Mims, and Oklahoma signed QB Caleb Williams, although he ended up his college career at USC.
Who signed the five-stars in 2021?
How do these findings compare to the schools signing five-star recruits in 2021, and which is the class now first eligible for the Draft? Here's the breakdown on who signed those standouts.
Of the 35 five-star prospects, seven each signed with Alabama and Ohio State. Georgia signed four, Clemson signed three, and LSU and Miami signed two each. The remaining schools each added one five-star signee: Florida, Maryland, Michigan, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Southern Cal, Texas, Texas A&M, Washington and Wisconsin.
Who panned out?
Again, Alabama and Georgia get the final edge. Of Alabama's seven five-star signees, two are top 20 prospects in the 2024 Draft. Many of the others aren't far behind, like Kool-Aid McKinstry.
Georgia did well also. Of their four five-star prospects, one is a top-20 Draft prospect. Nevertheless, Brock Vandagriff (now at Kentucky), Xavian Sorey Jr. (now at Arkansas) and Smael Mondon are still grinding.
Who didn't pan out?
Ohio State's 0 for 7 is surprising. It's not a total washout, though. Players like TreVeyon Henderson and Donovan Jackson are still working toward their NFL paydays. The same goes for Emeka Egbuka, Jack Sawyer, and JT Tuimoloau. The QB position didn't go well, with Kyle McCord and Quinn Ewers both elsewhere.
Clemson's 0 for 3 is a bit of a surprise, too. Will Shipley is a mid-round pick and Barrett Carter and Tristan Leigh are still working their way toward the NFL.
What surprises you from our review of the 5-star to first-round process (or lack thereof)? We'd love to hear your thoughts below in our comments section.
