Will Ohio State make the College Football Playoff? Exploring Buckeyes' playoff chances in 2023

The Ohio State Buckeyes might be the team with the best resume of college football in 2023 so far. While they don't have as many ranked wins as, say, the Washington Huskies or the Arizona Wildcats (four each), they do have two victories over the top 10 ranked teams (No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 7 Penn State).

In the last week of the regular season, they'll have the chance to add another victory over a top-10 team when they face Michigan. The Wolverines are currently ranked No. 3 in the nation, while the Buckeyes are No. 2.

This Week 13 matchup is a pre-Big Ten championship game, as the winner will undoubtedly be the favorite in the final title game. Whoever wins the Big Ten championship might be assured of a CFP seed.

What are Ohio State's playoff chances?

Currently, the Buckeyes have a 62% chance of making the CFP, according to the ESPN CFP predictor. If they also win against Michigan and win the Big Ten conference title, they have a 99% chance of making the playoffs and 35% of winning the national title.

On the other hand, if they lose against Michigan over the weekend they have only a 32% chance of making the CFP and 9% of winning the title.

Another scenario is Ohio State defeats Michigan but loses the Big Ten championship. In that case, they would still have a 70% chance of making the playoff and a 22% chance of winning the title.

College Football Playoffpscenarios for Ohio State in 2023

Basically, there are three scenarios for Ohio State. There's one scenario in which they win against Michigan in Week 13 and win the Big Ten championship. That would be the best scenario for them and would make them favorites for the national title.

The second-best scenario is they defeat the Wolverines, but lose the Big Ten title game. They would still have a 70% chance of making the CFP.

Finally, the worst scenario for them is losing against Michigan this week. That would bring their chance of making the CFP to only 32%.

Who would Ohio State play in the playoffs if the season ended today?

The Buckeyes are currently ranked No. 2 in the CFP committee rankings. That means, that they would set to play the No. 3 team which is Michigan. This is very unlikely to happen, given that whoever loses their regular season game will most probably not make the CFP.

After a brutal 30-24 loss against Michigan, Ryan Day's third in a row against the Wolverines, Ohio State will likely drop out of the top four in the CFP rankings and won't make the playoffs. This loss also knocked OSU out of Big Ten title contention with Michigan playing Big Ten West winner Iowa next week.