Start the Khan? Can India strike back at the Bridge?

Varun Chopra, daily flossing, ladies’ birthdays and David Lloyd’s 214 not out against India in 1974 are all good examples of things which shouldn’t be overlooked but often are. While it’s clear forgetting all of the above may have horrendous consequences, it was only the ECB’s neglect of the last in that list that meant Bumble recently missed the chance to parade around the Lord’s outfield in a golf buggy with other Anglo-Indian luminaries.

Whether or not he felt miffed that his double ton at Edgbaston had been swept from memory and thus denied him the chance to share an enclosed space with the post-lunch buttocks of Mike Gatting is a moot point, but the normally chirpy commentary stalwart did seem a bit subduedas he called out the end of England’s triumph over attrition and Dhoni’s men a few hours after his lunchtime slighting.

Few other English fans were as muted, however, as they roared Strauss’s side slowly through the Indian line-up on the final day. England were undoubtedly not as ruthless as they have been in the last year – with at times enough butter on their fingers to keep a randy Marlon Brando happy – but they were still relentless enough to overcome an Indian side that was both undercooked and understaffed. Already without Sehwag, they then suffered the loss of Graeme’s Smith’s worst nightmare and cricket’s loveliest dream in Zaheer Khan and Tendulkar respectively, and the casualty list was then further engorged after Gambhir took an intensely mirthless one on the elbow.

Of those four, the absence of Khan and Sehwag were felt the most keenly and not only because of the more serious nature of their injuries. When the home side tottered in the wake of Ishant’s inspired spell on Sunday morning, Dhoni’s inability to throw the ball to Zaheer was surely key to allowing England and Prior to enforce a huge volte face on the innings’ and match’s momentum. New ball, old ball, 27.4 overs old ball with England at 62-5, Khan is the canniest bowler in world cricket. Likewise Sehwag – although not quite the voracious leather dispatcher in the second innings he is in the first (Chennai 1998 notwithstanding) – is perhaps the one player in the world with the potential to have given India the platform to win the match, or more likely brutalise England into a defensiveness that made an Indian defeat substantially less likely. At time of writing it seems likely both will miss the Second Test starting on Friday.

Zaheer and Sehwag- Big Misses

Other absentees included Harbhajan Singh all match and Billy Bowden’s optic nerve in the fourth innings. It may well be Mishra’s breath on Bhajji’s neck that’s blowing his bowling off course but 400+ Test wickets or not the off spinner is under the spotlight and under pressure and we should all be grateful for that. He reacts to pressure in, well, one way or another and I’ll be astonished if he’s dropped or isn’t amongst the wickets or incidents at Trent Bridge, even if ostriches with acute pins and needles currently have more flight and movement than he’s getting. I accept that’s a punchy call on both counts.

I’m not sure I’ve done little more than rehash some truisms there, so here’s a couple more that were being offered up as such in the wake of Monday: 1) India are notoriously poor series starters and 2) Test cricket is alive and well and kicking like a mule foetus. The latter of these is patently open to some conjecture, particularly only a few weeks after the same two teams in conjunction with Sri Lanka and the Windies respectively combined, for differing reasons, to suggest the format was not quite as rosy as the cheeks of many of the 28,000 at Lord’s might suggest. In the Caribbean, the cricket was gritty and engaging but the attendances in the first and second Tests and the culminations to the second and third were not indicative of a format at peace with itself. In May and June in Cardiff, London and at the Rose Bowl, the cricket was, at times, grim and the empty seats grimmer. This is not to in any way diminish the splendour of seeing mile-long queues outside Lord’s for Day Five, however, and the fanatical and fantastic atmosphere produced by those lucky enough to get in.

The poor starters claim may well be true. India have lost 51 of the 136 Tests which have been the First or only Tests of a series (they’ve played 136 series), which equates to 37.5% as compared to their loss rate of 31% overall (140 losses from 452 matches played). Away from home India have lost 33 of the 70 Tests they’ve played which have been the First or only Tests of a series (they’ve played 70 series), which is a whopping 47% compared to their 41% defeat rate overall (91 losses from 223 away Tests). Fascinating stuff, undoubtedly, but it’s possibly more valuable to look at how they react to those setbacks, particularly on the road: Only on four occasions have India lost the first Test and gone on to either draw or win an away series: Australia 1980/81, England 2002, Sri Lanka 2010 and South Africa 2010/11.

So what does this all mean? Well, beyond noting the steeliness of Dhoni’s India, absolutely nothing bar that England or India or neither will win at Trent Bridge. More of a plea than a prediction, but if Sachin could also see his way to remembering to notch his hundredth ton at some point on the fourth day, it would be hugely appreciated by one statsguru sadsack spectator visiting from the Czech Republic.

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