Who will be the 11th Test nation?

Papua New Guinea players celebrate the fall of a Netherlands wicket in the Intercontinetal Cup

Unlike almost every other sport which seeks desperately for expansion, cricket, at its pinnacle at least, has always prided itself on being exclusive, rather than inclusive. Even now, only 10 countries compete in the Test arena, and two of those - Bangladesh and Zimbabwe - are something of a supporting cast.

Since Bangladesh's admittance into the sport's elite in 2000, no other nations have been awarded Test status, despite multiple valiant attempts from the minnows. At the start of the century, Kenya looked the most promising case, their highlight being a run to the semi-finals of the 2003 World Cup. However, a decade or so on, the African team find themselves in a state of disarray - they failed to even qualify for this year's edition.

America were another country who high hopes had been pinned on. Either that or their financial strength was just too big a lure to ignore. Shoehorned into the 2004 Champions Trophy, the US proved they were way out of their depth, losing every game heavily. Four international matches have been played in their country since, none have involved the host nation. Barring with the wealth of ex-patriots, there is little interest in cricket - all efforts to convince Americans that the sport is "baseball, but better" look destined to end in failure.

The International Cricket Council (ICC) have not warmed to the idea of opening up to new markets of late, and the decision to reduce the size of future 50-over World Cups to 10 teams is a regressive step, one that isn't made up for by supersizing the Twenty20 World Cup.

Thankfully, a few Associate teams are not so accepting of the ICC's propositions and, through causing regular upsets on the field, are hoping to make their demands to become the 11th Test nation impossible to quieten. But who is most likely to be the next country to take part in cricket's most iconic format?

Ireland and Afghanistan are the leading contenders on the basis of the ongoing Intercontinental Cup, with Papua New Guinea thrown up as a surprise contender.

Ireland strive to be recognised

Currently, Ireland are shouting the loudest and have consistently upset the establishment in recent World Cups, claiming scalps over Pakistan (2007) and England (2011) and, in this year's competition, victories over West Indies and Zimbabwe almost secured them a maiden quarter-final berth.

The Irish have also demonstrated their skills in the first-class game, winning four of the last five Intercontinental Cups - an ICC-organised event which allows Associates the chance to play the two-innings game and, in theory, forge a path into Test cricket for the most proficient.

Had the Emerald Isle not been helpless to their best players being poached by England, they may have already made it. Eoin Morgan, England's captain in one-day internationals, is the most high-profile player to have jumped ship. He is not alone. Ed Joyce and Boyd Rankin are just two other names who have switched allegiance in order to recognise a more permanent international dream and, until Ireland's stature changes, they will continue to lose their brightest prospects.

Afghanistan on the rise

The tale of Afghanistan is by far the most romantic and their rise to the fringes of top-level cricket has been a remarkably speedy one - the sport was banned in the country while it was under Taliban control. In 2010, they trumped Scotland to be crowned Intercontinental Cup champions, just nine years after being granted ICC membership.

Lately, the team's progress has slowed slightly, but growing pains are to be expected. However, they are a hungry bunch and in beating Scotland to record their first ever World Cup win they felled, as well as leapfrogged a veteran minnow nation. Their duel was one of the more memorable of the tournament, displaying the raw emotions of joy and pain of players who had been afforded a rare snippet in the limelight.

Netherlands fading away?

The Netherlands have developed a reputation for being dangerous customers in T20, but hopes in the other formats have petered out. It was disappointing - and indeed a shock given their exploits in last year's World T20 - that out of the four Associates who made it to the 2015 World Cup, that the Dutch were not one of them and to compound the misery, they have now lost their ODI status.

For a time, cricket flourished like the tulips did in Holland, although like so many Associates, they were reliant on players who had either learned their trade elsewhere or were in possession of a Dutch passport. But the arrangement worked. It gave access to the likes of Ryan ten Doeschate and Dirk Nannes, both of whom were deemed worthy enough of Indian Premier League contracts.

They were also helped for a few years by England's domestic 40-over tournament, where they would compete alongside all 18 English counties, Scotland and a side known as the Unicorns - consisting of the country's best minor county cricketers. Scheduling changes on the county circuit mean that luxury is now gone, which is a shame since they performed admirably whenever invited.

Afghanistan players in the 2015 World Cup

How a two-tier system could benefit all

Ireland and the Netherlands are two burgeoning opportunists who have so far had their green shoots squashed – time will tell whether the same happens to Afghanistan. And while those three are the most prominent there are others too with dreams. From Scotland to Nepal, Papua New Guinea to Hong Kong, the game is fortunate to have global intrigue.

While the idea of a two-tier system is met with a hefty dose of caution, there is value in indulging in the concept – although perhaps differently to how the ICC may prefer. Bangladesh and Zimbabwe are either starved of Test cricket or hammered when they do get to play, unless of course they are up against each other. West Indies are another who have forgotten what it feels like to win, although their situation is not as grave.

Bridging the gap between this trio and the strongest Associates would benefit all concerned. The current Test sides would get a good workout, while the Associates would have the chance to prove themselves. In turn, spectators would be presented with fresh, competitive cricket, and the sport could take its traditional format to new outposts. If the experiment fails then so be it, but there is no harm in trying to pair up teams of similar standing more frequently.

Unfortunately, there is little to assume that the five-day welfare of the Associates is a priority. Hence, any nation wishing to become the 11th entry into cricket’s most exclusive club will have to do it the old-fashioned way. Judging by their consistency over the past decade, Ireland are clear frontrunners and the most deserving of it. Whether the ICC realises that is another matter entirely.