Is Dota 2 decreasing in popularity?

With millions of new players worldwide every year, it is safe to assume that Dota 2 is on of the top competitive multiplayer games of the current generation.

The MOBA credentials of Dota 2 are historically beyond dispute. Not only was its predecessor, the original Warcraft 3 map, the torch-bearer of the original battle-arena formula of Aeon of Strife, but also a phenomenal success in setting up its own competitive MOBA community.

The other MOBA that later forked off from the original version of Dota was League of Legends. While the game has over 100 million active users monthly, Dota 2 struggles to hold even a tenth of that count. This raises concerns about whether Dota 2 is becoming a 'dead game' or not.

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Dota 2 popularity measured by hard numbers

Dota 2 average concurrent figures in the last 12 months (Image via Steamcharts)

The glory days of Dota 2 appear to be a distant past now. It can be pinpointed to Q1 2016, in patch 6.86 leading up to the 2016 Spring Cleaning update, and the Shanghai Major (the second Major tournament after the first ever Frankfurt Major). The uptick in player count took it to a seven-figure territory of concurrent users each month. The figure remained constant all the way through 2016 and the 7.00 update, up till February 2017.

Compared to that, the estimated monthly average of current Dota 2 users in recent years gives the impression that the game is past its prime. The highest figure ever in this category was in February 2016 with 709,108 average player count. In August 2021, the figures showed a 40% decline.

Is it really all that bad?

Surprisingly enough, terms like "dead game" have become a cliche in the Dota community now. There have been several periods of downward spirals in the past where the game has lost hundreds of thousands of players over a matter of months, but, as we can see, it has endured such downturns. Dota 2 continues to be the fifth highest watched game of all time on Twitch.

Over the years, there has been a very slow decline in interest, but Dota 2 is hitting the right note where it counts. The Battle Pass, however more expensive and uneconomical its model gets for the buyer, it continues to rake in greater profits for Valve with every iteration. This translates to more money in the big-league premiere tournaments, and thus greater incentives for esports sponsors.

$30 Million. #TI10 #Dota2 pic.twitter.com/pod1HpLwyF

— The International 10 (@Dota2Major) July 27, 2020

Eventually, Dota 2 has survived the ultimate test of faith so far: a year without TI. The best for this year is yet to come.