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NOT WHAT THEY SEEM
By Jeff Cadillac
The Kansas City Chiefs have been a very good football team for as long as Andy Reid has been the Head Coach. They have won many games, been to two Super Bowls and have gone deep into the playoffs many times. However, if you were betting on them Against the Spread (ATS) during the season, you may be short a few dollars.
The following are the KC Chiefs' records under HC Andy Reid. Each season has its own stories for culminating as they did, and we will try to explain why there are so many differences between the SU & ATS.
2013 11-5, 9-7 ATS but @HOME 5-3 SU & 2-6 ATS. 2014 9-7, 11-5 ATS, but @HOME 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS. 2015 11-5, 8-8 ATS but @HOME 6-2 SU & 3-5 ATS. 2016 12-4, 9-7 ATS but @HOME 6-2 SU & 3-5 ATS. 2017 10-6, 10-6 ATS but @HOME 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS. 2018 12-4, 7-8-1 ATS but @HOME 7-1 SU & 4-4 ATS. 2019 12-4, 10-6 ATS but @HOME 5-3 SU & 4-4 ATS. 2020 14-2, 6-9-1 ATS but @HOME 6-2 SU & 3-5 ATS. 2021 12-5, 8-9 ATS but @HOME 7-2 SU & 4-5 ATS. 2022 8-2, 4-6 ATS but @HOME 4-1 SU & 1-4 ATS.
So you don’t have to spend time calculating, here are the totals. 111-44 SU, 71.6%. 82-71-2 ATS, 52.9%. HOME RECORD 58-20 SU, 74.35%. 36-42 ATS 46.15%.
Let’s look at something that most teams would love to worry about. HC ANDY Reid has had the fantastic luck of only having two starting QBs during his tenure with Kansas City. Many teams in the NFL have not had that luxury and have struggled to find one starting QB that made it through a series of games, much less a whole season. When I speak about starting QBs, I am not talking about QBs that started one game during the season, came in for a series, or did mop up work on the tail end of a blowout win or loss. I am talking about starting the majority of games. Alex Smith was the starting QB for KC from 2013-2017. He started 15 games in 2013, 15 games in 2014, 16 games in 2016 and, 15 games in 2016, & 15 games in 2017. QB Pat Mahomes started one game in 2017, 16 in 2018, 14 in 2019, 15 in 2020, 17 in 2021, and 10 in 2022.
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The first QB that Andy Reid had to work with was Alex Smith. Smith was traded to the KC Chiefs after the 2012 season and would be the QB that Andy Reid would be working with to turn the Chiefs around. The KC Chiefs were 2-14 SU & 5-11 ATS in 2012. They were 1-7 SU & 3-5 ATS @HOME and 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS on the ROAD. Their two SU wins were as DOGS @NO & HOME vs CAR. Their five ATS wins were as DOGS, @NO, vs BALT, @PITT, vs DEN & vs CAR.
For 2013 you would think that KC would be a DOG in many games. But just the opposite occurred. As a ROAD FAV, KC was 5-0 ATS. As a ROAD DOG, they were 2-1 ATS. But as HOME FAV, they were 2-5 ATS & as a HOME DOG, 0-1 ATS, total HOME record, 2-6 ATS, yikes. They played better on the ROAD than @HOME. On the ROAD, they were 7-1 ATS, very good. I guess that with a proven QB as Alex Smith as the QB, KC became an instant FAV.
For 2014, this would be the only season that The ATS record 11-5 ATS would be better than the 9-7 SU record. However, the trend continued as KC would be a FAV more often than a DOG. But KC would play better @HOME ATS for the 1st time under Andy Reid. This would occur only one other time, 2017. As a ROAD FAV, KC was 1-2 ATS & as a HOME FAV, they were 5-1 ATS for a total of 7-3 ATS. But as a ROAD DOG, they were 5-0 ATS, and as a HOME DOG, they were 1-1 ATS. In seven games in 2014, KC was a DOG seven times and was 6-1 ATS, a very good bet. As a FAV, KC was 6-3 ATS, also a very good bet. You might think that this might have continued in 2015, but you are wrong.
In 2015, KC was a FAV in twelve of their sixteen games, going 3-0 ATS as a ROAD FAV and 2-5 ATS as a HOME FAV. As a DOG, they were 2-3 ATS on the ROAD and 1-0 ATS @HOME. So @HOME, KC was 3-5 ATS and 5-3 ATS on the ROAD. In total, KC was 3-3 ATS as a DOG and 5-5 ATS as a FAV. Again, they were better & a better bet on the ROAD ATS than @HOME ATS.
In 2016, KC with Alex Smith @QB was 12-4 SU & 9-7 ATS. At HOME, they were 6-2 SU but 3-5 ATS. On the ROAD, they were 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS. Again a better bet on the ROAD than @HOME. As a FAV, they were 5-5 ATS, and as a DOG, 3-2 ATS. There was one PICK’EM game during the season, which accounted for ATS for KC in only 15 games. As a HOME DOG, KC was 0-0 ATS. The ROAD was a strong bet for KC that season, and as a ROAD DOG, they were ahead as well.
In 2017, KC was 10-6 SU & 10-6 ATS. This was the other season that they were above .500 ATS @HOME. KC was 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS @HOME while going 4-4 SU & 4-4 ATS on the ROAD. As a FAV, KC was 8-6 ATS going 6-2 ATS @HOME and 2-4 as a ROAD FAV. As a DOG, KC was 2-0 ATS while going 0-0 ATS @HOME. A good bet here was KC as a ROAD DOG. Strangely, there were no games where KC won but didn’t cover or lost but managed to cover as in other seasons. This usually happens over the long stretch of a season and is very common.
In 2018, KC was 12-4 SU but 7-8-1 ATS. One explanation is that KC was BIG FAV in games where the other team played competitively and kept the games close. At HOME, KC was 7-1 SU but 4-4 ATS. On the ROAD, KC was 5-3 SU but 3-5-1 ATS. As a ROAD FAV KC was 1-3 ATS which tends to believe that they underestimated their opponent. But as a ROAD DOG, KC was 2-1-1 ATS, still a good bet. As a HOME FAV, they were 4-4 ATS, and as a HOME DOG, they were 0-0 ATS. Teams playing @KC felt they had something to prove. KC didn’t bring overall value if you picked them ATS all season.
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In 2019, the year that KC won the Super Bowl, KC went 12-4 ATS & 10-6 ATS. At HOME, KC was 5-3 SU & 4-4 ATS. While on the ROAD, they were 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS. There is plenty of value right there on the ROAD for KC. As a ROAD FAV KC was 5-2 ATS, while as a ROAD DOG, they were 1-0 ATS. Again, plenty of value. But as a HOME FAV, they were 3-3 ATS, and as a HOME DOG, they were 1-1 ATS. The trend again is the AWAY games.
In 2020, a season in which KC tried to repeat as champions, they went 14-2 SU but only 6-9-1 ATS. They were 6-2 SU @HOME but 3-5 ATS. They were perfect on the ROAD @8-0 SU but 3-4-1 ATS. As a ROAD FAV, they were 2-4-1 ATS. But as a ROAD DOG, they were 1-0 ATS. Hard to believe that KC would be a ROAD DOG at this juncture, but early in the 2020 season, KC was a DOG+3 ½ @BALT, where they won 34-20. As a HOME FAV, they were 3-4 ATS, and as a HOME DOG+3 ½ in the last game of the season vs LAC, KC lost 38-21. It was perceived in that game that KC would only play their starters for part of the game to rest them, and they did. LAC took advantage of this and played their game. If you spot played, again, value as the ROAD DOG.
In 2021, KC went 12-5 SU & 8-9 ATS. They were 7-2 SU @HOME but 4-5 ATS. On the ROAD, they were 5-3 SU & 4-4 ATS. As a ROAD FAV, KC was 4-4 ATS, while as a ROAD DOG, 0-0 ATS. No chance to pick up some extra cash there. As a HOME FAV, they were 4-5 ATS, while as a HOME DOG 0-0 ATS. Spot playing wins you some money but only if you do your homework. The point setters got smart to gamblers winning money with KC as a DOG, and in 2021, for the 1st time, they were a FAV in all their games.
So far, in 2022, KC is 8-2 SU but 4-6 ATS. They are 3-2 ATS as a ROAD FAV & 0-0 ATS as a ROAD DOG. As a HOME FAV, KC is 1-4 ATS and 0-0 ATS as a HOME DOG. The question to you is, where is the value that KC brings? Is it against them, or can they turn around their ATS woes and win some? Historically they have been bad @HOME this season, and at this moment, they are a HOME FAV-15 ½ vs the LAR. Do you take the LAR or KC? I would take LAR and hope that LAR plays competitively and at least gets a back door cover. Over the course of HC Andy Reid’s tenure, there haven’t been too many blowouts at HOME. Most of them have been on the ROAD.
We could look at each game that KC has played over the last 10 seasons under HC Andy Reid, but that would fill a book. Don’t get me wrong. The Kansas City Chiefs are a very good football team. They have won a lot of games under HC Andy Reid. If you had bet the Money Line (ML) for all those games, you would be very well off. You would have won 70.96% of the time in all of their games. You would be +67 games on the Money Line wager, which is considered a very good rate. On the ATS side, you would be +11. But, after 10 years worth of betting on the Kansas City Chiefs, would it be worth all the aggravation?
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Numbers don’t lie, and the moral of this story is; Don’t bet on the KC Chiefs @HOME ATS. If you must gamble on them when they play @HOME, the Money Line (ML) is a safer and better bet. As for the ROAD games that KC plays, you must ask yourself, how many points are they laying on the ROAD, and who are they playing? As a ROAD FAV, KC is 28-21-1 or 56.0%. Be very careful that you don’t fall into a trap. Plus, as a DOG on the ROAD, KC has been 18-7-1 ATS in 26 games for a 69.2% winning percentage. I have always said that the trend is your friend, and in this case, history and the numbers don’t lie. This is your BEST BET if you must bet KC. Be wise in your bets and take the information that has been presented to you as money in the bank. You may lose or win a game here or there, but overall you will be a winner if you have read this article. I hope that this helps you in your analysis of the games.
Jeff Cadillac can be found at www.jeffcadillac.com where he analyzes every NFL game every week. He can also be found on the Bettor Sports Network app on Frday nights at 7:30pm EST on the “Rick Kamla Show” discussing NFL games . He is on Twitter @Jeffcadillac1 where he gives his Best Bet of the WEEk every week. He also co-hosts a weekly video for Sideline Sports called the “J & J Sports Express” where they discuss NFL games that is also posted on Twitter. He can be emailed at [email protected].
