Former PGA Tour winner makes bold Scottie Scheffler vs Rory McIlroy prediction for the PGA Championship

Former PGA Tour winner Smylie Kaufman picks Scottie Scheffler over Rory McIlroy for the upcoming 2025 PGA Championship. The pro golfer turned analyst weighed in on the McIlroy vs Scheffler odds for the major championship and ‘leaned’ towards the World No.1, despite his bad form.

For the unversed, McIlroy won the Masters last month to end a decade long major drought. The Northern Irishman also completed his career grand slam with the victory at Augusta. However, Kaufman takes this as a disadvantage for McIlroy as golfers have historically found it “very difficult to win back-to-back majors.” Furthermore, the 33-year-old dubbed Scheffler as the ‘more rested’ for PGA Championship among the two as he sat last week’s Truist Championship out while McIlroy tried to defend his title.

The 2015 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open winner also compared the two golfers’ form and gave the upper hand to Scheffler despite McIlroy winning three events already this season. He noted that the five-time major champion needs ‘to go work on his ball striking a little bit.’

Weighing Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler’s odds for PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, Smylie Kaufman on The Smylie Show’s latest episode (at 59:24):

“It's right even odds for me. I would probably lean uh Scottie (Scheffler) right now. Although it's just hard to win… you know history shows it's very difficult to win back-to-back majors that's why I lean Scottie a little bit he’s a little more rested. But I think this week was a good week for him, talking about Rory (McIlroy) at Philly in the fact that he knows he's got to go work on his ball striking a little bit…

I was out there with him all week pretty much saw him play just about every hole it felt like and he was a little bit off at times. And I think he talks a little bit how Houston for instance this year a very wide open golf course that he kind of struggled with picking certain lines off of tees and struggled to hit fairways he struggled to hit fairways this week and Quail Hollow course is a little bit more treelined kind of it's shaped a little bit better and he drives it better hits more fairways there than a place that maybe you can't really pick targets quite as well.”

Kaufman stated he’s ‘looking forward’ to see McIlroy ‘trying to improve a little bit on his driving’ at Quail. He reiterated that the reigning Masters champion ‘will probably work a little bit on his ball striking on Tuesday and Wednesday in the leadup’ to the PGA Championship.

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Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler’ form ahead of PGA Championship

For the unversed, Rory McIlroy comes into the PGA Championship as the outright favorite. The Northern Irishman, on his best individual start to a PGA Tour season, has registered three wins in seven starts so far this year. The ace golfer won The Players Championship and the Masters, boosting his odds for the second major of the year.

Meanwhile, Scheffler has struggled this season unlike last year. The 2024 Masters champion’s sole win this year came at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson earlier this month. The 28-year-old, who missed the start of the 2025 season due to a kitchen injury, finished T3 at The Genesis Invitational and T2 at the Texas Children's Houston Open. He will be eyeing his maiden major title of the year this weekend.

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Listed below is Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler’s 2025 PGA Tour season so far with earnings:

Rory McIlroy:

• AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – 1st – $3,600,000
• The Genesis Invitational – T17 – $270,714
• Arnold Palmer Invitational – T15 – $349,000
• The Players Championship – 1st (Playoff) – $4,500,000
• Texas Children's Houston Open – T5 – $337,844
• Masters Tournament – 1st (Playoff) – $4,200,000
• Zurich Classic of New Orleans – Team Event – No individual prize listed
• Truist Championship – T7 – $602,500

Scottie Scheffler:

• AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – T9 – $535,000
• WM Phoenix Open – T25 – $69,197
• The Genesis Invitational – T3 – $1,200,000
• Arnold Palmer Invitational – T11 – $451,250
• THE PLAYERS Championship – T20 – $240,250
• Texas Children's Houston Open – T2 – $845,500
• Masters Tournament – 4th – $1,008,000
• RBC Heritage – T8 – $580,000
• The CJ Cup Byron Nelson – 1st – $1,782,000

More details on the PGA Championship will be updated as the major event progresses.