2025 Indy 500 qualifying: 5 interesting storylines and predictions

With the preparations and schedule for the Indy 500 already underway, the fabled race is not far away before the grandstands line up to crown the pole position to one of the 34 drivers this week. However, the grid will feature some old and new names this time around, some of those who have been winners, and some who are trying to find their feet in the IndyCar realm.

This makes the Indy 500 weekend even grander as 34 participants will be going tooth and nail over making it into the 33-car safe zone. So let's take a look at the interesting storylines and predictions that could dominate the upcoming qualifying weekend:

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Storylines surrounding the Indy 500 qualifying

Josef Newgarden has never won an Indy 500 pole position

Josef Newgarden is one of the most talked-about drivers leading up to the Indy 500 weekend, and why not? The 34-year-old could potentially rewrite history in the coming week. However, his track record on qualifying day has not been as stellar as his race day miracles.

Josef Newgarden at the NTT IndyCar Series Indianapolis 500 Champion - Source: Getty

The Team Penske driver has never qualified in the pole position and has a solitary front row start at the race since joining the Mooresville-based squad. If Newgarden ends up winning the pole position, this would mark the end of a 14-year drought for him since he joined the racing series.

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Hybrid issues will hamper teams

IndyCar Teams have had thousands of miles of running at IMS' oval layout since the introduction of the hybrid engines. However, with this being the first time that the qualifying for the Indy 500 will take place with new powertrains, some drivers or teams could be bound for a disappointing day.

INDYCAR hybrid decal - Source: Getty

Since the hybrid engine's introduction, whether it be top teams or the backmarkers, IndyCar's biggest faces have run into issues at every few race weekends, so a similar occurrence on qualifying day would not be something to be surprised by.

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Will Team Penske retain its lead heading into the qualifying for the Indy 500?

Josef Newgarden is not the only Team Penske driver to have not won pole position at the fabled venue, Will Power is another big name from the squad. This leaves last year's pole position winner, Scott McLaughlin, as the sole active driver from the squad to have claimed the impressive feat on qualifying day.

Though the team seemingly has higher straightline speed owing to early speed trap trends, this speed could soon taper off heading into qualifying as rivals catch up, so an interesting fight could break out.

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Rinus VeeKay and Felix Rosenqvist: The underdogs to watch out for

Rinus VeeKay and Felix Rosenqvist seemingly stay under the radar in the IndyCar realm. However, they have. However, the two have proved time and time again that they cannot be neglected by big teams if they mess up.

The two have had respectable results during qualifying for the Indy 500 and could possibly put up a miracle drive come Sunday if their fortune strikes the clock.

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5 predictions for the Indy 500 qualifying

⁠#5 Team Penske will be on pole again

While the concerns boil around Team Penske's star drivers on possibly having the last bit of speed to claim pole position, however, as Conor Daly put it, the team has enough to clinch pole position. This makes them a favorite to achieve the feat as Sunday draws closer.

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#4 Kyle Larson will make it to the Fast Six for the second year in a row

Kyle Larson aims to complete the 1100 miles on the Indy 500 race weekend. However, he would be hoping to start the race at a lofty position, and it would not be strange if the HM driver makes it to the Fast Six for the second year running.

Though he would have to leave the final qualifying segment to make it to the All-Star race in the NASCAR realm, making it a best sixth-place qualifying result for him if he makes it into the Fast Six

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#3 Andretti will have a torrid day

It would be Andretti's first Indy 500 since Michael Andretti stepped down. The team would like to prove that it still has the momentum that the former IndyCar champion had developed over the years.

Colton Herta's Andretti at the INDYCAR Sonsio Grand Prix - Source: Getty

However, its trio of drivers have not had great results in the 2025 season so far, making the possibility of the team low-balling it come Sunday, a real possibility.

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#2 Pato O’Ward will be the lead Arrow McLaren driver

Pato O'Ward has been Arrow McLaren's lead driver for quite a while. But, he has seemingly had some tough competition this year with Christian Lundgaard's arrival in the squad.

The Dane has put up a strong fight in the early half of the season, and only two points separate the two in the championship standings. Despite this, the balance lies in favor of O'Ward as he is the more experienced driver at the British team and has higher chances of getting a strong result on the qualifying day for the Indy 500.

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#1 A big name would be knocked out in the last chance qualifying

Last year, Nolan Siegel was knocked out in last chance qualifying as the grid was jam-packed, and he suffered a big crash. However, it is not uncommon that big names do not make the cut, as Graham Rahal found out in 2023 when he was knocked out of qualifying.

So, this year could also throw up a big surprise and take out a big name in the paddock, whether it be a rookie or a renowned face in the series.