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#3 Choice of opponent
When CM Punk was debuting in the UFC, his very first opponent in the Octagon was a fighter who already had two wins on his record. Mickey Gall had defeated his last two opponents, even getting Mike Jackson to tap out via the Rear Naked Choke, a weapon he has since used. Incidentally, that was the same move he used to take out CM Punk.
JW Kiser on the other hand, while a good fighter, is not really from the top of the heap. He has one loss in his professional record, and his amateur record is not too impressive either.
Kiser has three losses and one win in his amateur career, making for only one win in his entire MMA run. Now facing Jack Swagger at a high stakes bout, the pressure might be too much for him.
Swagger might have enough mat wrestling prowess to outdo Kiser.
