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This upcoming weekend sees the biggest UFC show of 2019 thus far, as Jon Jones is all set to headline UFC 235 by defending his UFC Light-Heavyweight title against an unlikely challenger – Anthony ‘Lionheart’ Smith.
Nobody can deny that Smith’s earned his shot at the gold – he’s won three straight fights at 205lbs, taken out two former champions and also beat a former title challenger in Volkan Oezdemir. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he actually has a chance at dethroning Jones.
No offense to Smith – he’s a great fighter in his own right – but I just find it hard to think that he can beat one of the greatest fighters of all time. Here are 4 reasons why Anthony Smith simply can’t beat Jon Jones.
#1 He doesn’t have a puncher’s chance
When fights that sound one-sided on paper are made, a lot of the time you hear fans and analysts talking about the underdog having a “puncher’s chance”, essentially suggesting that – quite rightly – anyone can get knocked out if they’re hit in the right spot and the person throwing the shot hits hard enough.
The problem with giving Anthony Smith a puncher’s chance, however, is that he doesn’t seem to have the kind of one-shot power that could turn a guy like Jon Jones’ lights out. This isn’t Anthony Johnson we’re talking about here – Smith is a pretty great striker both from range and from inside the clinch, but even his most recent KO or TKO wins over the likes of Shogun Rua and Hector Lombard came after flurries of strikes rather than one shot.
Jones has survived the power of fighters like Daniel Cormier, Alexander Gustafsson, and Lyoto Machida. He’s never really been stunned in a fight, let alone knocked down or out. Questions still exist around the strength of his chin, but that’s because it’s so damn hard to actually hit him cleanly. Therefore I just can’t see Anthony Smith being the one to suddenly crack Jones’ chin, not when he’s never turned the lights out on anyone with one shot before.
#2 His run at 205lbs is a bit questionable
While it’d be totally unfair to claim Anthony Smith hasn’t earned a title shot at Light-Heavyweight, it’s also a bit wrong to claim that he’s the kind of terrifying contender who’s been running through everyone, like Daniel Cormier prior to his 2015 title shot or even like Jones before he won the title back in 2011.
Smith has won three fights in a row at 205lbs, and that in itself is enough to net him a title shot in what’s arguably the UFC’s thinnest male division, but realistically – and I don’t mean to talk down the opposition that ‘Lionheart’ has faced – he’s beaten two former champions who are way past their prime, and a fighter in Volkan Oezdemir who simply wasn’t used to getting out of the first round.
Sure, the Oezdemir fight was impressive in the way Smith turned around some early adversity to win, and sure, Shogun Rua’s win over Tyson Pedro showed there’s life in the old dog yet, but prior to this three-fight run, Smith was stopped in vicious fashion by Thiago Santos at 185lbs. He’s just not a contender to really strike fear into someone like Jon Jones, essentially.
#3 He’s not the most durable fighter
Okay, so let’s give credit where it’s due; Anthony Smith’s performance against Volkan Oezdemir in October was pretty damn impressive. He was badly hurt by the Swiss fighter in the first round and did well to survive, and then came from two rounds in the hole to submit ‘No Time’ in the third round. But when it comes to his fight with Jon Jones, his apparent lack of durability is somewhat worrying.
Smith is 31-13 in his professional MMA career, and while there’s nothing wrong with taking losses – even the greats lose sometimes in a sport as difficult to succeed in as MMA – it’s notable that of those 13 losses, only one fight went the distance – Smith’s 2016 fight with Cezar Ferreira. Outside of that, he’s been submitted 4 times and stopped via strikes on 8 occasions.
Smith’s supporters would suggest that his lack of durability, particularly in terms of taking strikes, came largely from the heavyweight cut he was performing in order to get to the 185lbs Middleweight limit, and that his chin is no longer an issue at 205lbs. But I’m not so sure – he was still hurt by Oezdemir, and few would deny that Jones is a far more ruthless fighter than the Swiss striker.
After seeing Smith fold against the likes of Thiago Santos, and going back a little further, Adlan Amagov – who fought mostly at 170lbs – it’s just hard to imagine him surviving the kind of barrage that Jones is going to throw at him.
#4 He’s up against the greatest of all time at 205lbs
The biggest reason that Anthony Smith has little to no chance in this fight, of course, is the strength of his opposition. Love him or loathe him – and after the PED controversies surrounding him, there’s plenty of fans that do the latter – there’s no denying that Jon Jones is the greatest fighter to ever pull on a pair of gloves at 205lbs.
Essentially, ‘Bones’ has ruled over the UFC’s Light-Heavyweight division with an iron fist for practically a decade now, and outside of Alexander Gustafsson – who was crushed in their 2018 rematch – nobody has even come close to beating the guy. He’s taken out all-time greats like Rampage Jackson, Shogun Rua and Lyoto Machida, and easily dealt with current top fighters like Ryan Bader, Daniel Cormier and Gustafsson.
He’s probably the best wrestler in the division, as he easily dealt with Cormier in that area, and while he’s not the most technical striker, his use of elbows from the clinch – as well as his range fighting using his ridiculous 84.5” reach – is essentially unmatched. Basically, Jones is as unbeatable a fighter as you’ll find in modern MMA.
Anthony Smith is a tough fighter who definitely lives up to his ‘Lionheart’ moniker, and I’m sure he’ll give everything he’s got in an effort to defeat Jones on Saturday. But unfortunately for him, the likelihood of that happening sits somewhere between slim and none.
