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January 26th will be a major date for Bellator MMA, as the UFC’s biggest rival promotion will put on Bellator 214 from Inglewood, California – and the main event will feature the finals of Bellator’s Heavyweight Grand Prix, a fight to decide the new Bellator Heavyweight champion, as the legendary Fedor Emelianenko takes on former UFC title contender Ryan Bader.
Most observers seem to be expecting Bader to win the fight comfortably – Fedor is years past his prime now and despite his wins over Frank Mir and Chael Sonnen, he appears to be more vulnerable today than he’s ever been in his career. Bader meanwhile is on a hot streak and hasn’t lost in 6 fights – he’s also the reigning Bellator Light-Heavyweight champion.
There’s no doubt that Bader should be the favourite here, but can you really count Fedor out? Personally, I don’t think so, and here are 4 reasons why.
#1 Bader isn’t invulnerable
There’s no denying that Ryan Bader is on a hot streak right now. He’s unbeaten in Bellator competition after winning their Light-Heavyweight title in his debut there, and he left the UFC on a two-fight run as well. Few observers would argue against him being one of the best five 205lbers in the world right now.
Having said that, only a fool would try to claim Bader is almost impossible to beat, in the same way that fighters like Jon Jones or Daniel Cormier are. We’ve simply seen Bader beaten or badly hurt too many times in the past for him to have that invulnerable aura. Bader has only lost 5 times in his career, but ignoring his loss to Jon Jones – everyone loses to that guy – all of those bad results stem from one issue; a questionable chin.
Sure, there’s no shame in being knocked out by Anthony Johnson, who was one of the hardest hitters in all of MMA, but Bader was also knocked down by Tito Ortiz prior to being submitted, and Tito’s never been known as a great striker. He also lost to Glover Teixeira in a fight that he was winning, essentially because his chin couldn’t hold up to Glover’s power.
Bader’s striking has admittedly improved hugely since he literally ran into a knockout punch from Lyoto Machida in 2012, but he’s still a wrestler by trade rather than a kickboxer, and he’s now got over a decade of damage from professional MMA to contend with, too.
Fedor might be miles past his prime, but as everyone who follows combat sports knows, the last thing that a top fighter loses is his power. We saw that in Fedor’s 2018 fights with Frank Mir and Chael Sonnen. And the Russian has always been known as one of the hardest hitters in MMA. Bader might have some success in this fight, but if Fedor hits him cleanly, it’s hard to believe Bader’s chin will hold up.
#2 Bader’s never actually beaten a genuine top Heavyweight
A few years ago, a picture circulated across the internet that showed Ryan Bader posing with his old friend from Arizona State, then-UFC Heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez. A lot of fans immediately noted that Bader naturally looked much bigger than Cain, and thus a move to Heavyweight could be good for him at some point in his future.
It’s unsurprising therefore that the move to Heavyweight has worked out pretty well for ‘Darth’. Having said that though, I don’t think anyone would argue that his move to fight the big boys has gone down like say, Alistair Overeem’s in the mid-2000s when he beat top 5 contender Sergei Kharitonov in his divisional debut.
Thus far Bader has had 2 fights at Heavyweight; his debut there saw him stop Muhammed Lawal with strikes, but then ‘King Mo’ is also a natural 205lber who was moving back up to compete in Bellator’s Grand Prix. He then beat Matt Mitrione – a true Heavyweight in terms of his size, but also a man who’s always struggled with his takedown defense and ground game – essentially music to the ears of a wrestler like Bader.
Fedor might have a horrendous knockout loss to Mitrione on his record, but in MMA styles make fights, and a limited knockout puncher like ‘Meathead’ was always going to be a tricky prospect for the ageing Russian, who just isn’t as durable as he was in his prime. Essentially I wouldn’t use it as evidence to suggest Mitrione is a tougher fight than Fedor.
In conclusion? Bader really hasn’t fought a top level Heavyweight yet, and while Fedor’s skills have clearly waned over the years, I’d still argue he’s one of the more dangerous big men out there, especially outside of the UFC umbrella. For a natural 205lber like Bader, that could spell trouble.
#3 Bader might underestimate Fedor
It sounds insane to say it, but given Fedor’s advanced age, his apparently waning skills and durability, and the fact that he was knocked out by a limited Matt Mitrione in 2017, there’s every chance that Bader could underestimate ‘The Last Emperor’ when the two men step into the cage in Inglewood. A decade ago that kind of talk would’ve been sacrilegious, but Father Time waits for no man, not even Fedor.
Throughout his career – including a testing run on The Ultimate Fighter – Bader has never come across as anything less than a humble, down-to-earth and respectful athlete, but you’d have to forgive him for being very confident in this situation. Fedor hasn’t looked truly great in years now and this is arguably the biggest opportunity in Bader’s career.
Already the holder of Bellator’s Light-Heavyweight title, ‘Darth’ now has a chance to not only win their Heavyweight title too, but defeat the legend of the division in the process. All in all, it adds up to a lot of pressure on Bader’s shoulders, but it’s the kind of pressure that might cause him to underestimate his aged opponent.
Victories by ageing legends against much younger foes are relatively rare in MMA, but they’re not without precedent – Randy Couture’s 2007 win over Tim Sylvia at the age of 43 immediately comes to mind for instance – and so if Bader comes into this fight with Fedor expecting a walkover, it could be a massive error for him – and lead to his doom.
#4 Fedor is Fedor!
When it comes to this fight, it’s obvious why Ryan Bader is the favourite – he’s pretty much in his prime and hasn’t lost since 2016, while Fedor’s prime probably came at some point between 2005 and 2009, and ever since his return from retirement in 2015, he hasn’t really looked like the same fighter that ran roughshod over the Heavyweight division for years, despite his wins over Frank Mir and Chael Sonnen.
But is that enough reason to count him out of this fight? Certainly not. Fedor is a fighter who made a whole career out of defying all logic inside the ring or cage to write himself into one of the biggest MMA legends of them all.
Remember the time Kazuyuki Fujita hit him so hard in their PRIDE encounter that he was left dancing like a drunken fish? It’s hard to forget – but it’s also hard to forget the fact that Fedor somehow recovered and then choked Fujita out moments later.
The same could be said for the way he submitted Kevin Randleman after being suplexed onto his head, the way he came back to knock out Brett Rogers after being busted wide open, and so on. And most recently, he came back from being knocked down by Frank Mir to TKO the former UFC champ moments later.
Admittedly, most of those fights took place years ago – in Fedor’s prime – but the point still stands. ‘The Last Emperor’ simply isn’t the kind of fighter who will just lay down for the younger fighter. Some fighters simply have an inexplicable kind of magic that surrounds them, and the Russian legend is one of them. And that means you’d have to be insane to count him out against Bader.
