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Since the early 2000s, the UFC Light Heavyweight division has been regarded as the home of the Alphas of the roster. Despite the fact that the champion of the next weight class, the Heavyweight, is unofficially regarded as the "Baddest Man on the Planet", the light heavyweight division, for some reason has always served up the more recognizable and respected champions in the organisations' history. Randy Couture, Chuck Liddell, Rashad Evans, Vitor Belfort, Jon Jones and Lyoto Machida would undoubtedly draw more viewers to pay-per-view than Andrei Arlovski, Tim Slyvia, Stipe Miocic, Cain Velasquez and Brock Lesnar. Take Lesnar out from the above list and the competition wouldn't even be close.
But despite the rich history of the division, for the last 8+ years, Jon Jones has held sway as the king, whether officially or unofficially. Since announcing himself with a brutal and beautifully creative victory over Shogun Rua in 2011, Jones has not lost his crown in the Octagon, though his off cage antics lead his career through several ups and downs. More than being undefeated, Jones has never come close to being bettered, save for just two occasions - one when he faced Vitor Belfort and the other the famous UFC 165 fight against Alexander Gustafsson.
During this period 11 men, including the current Heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier (twice) have tried to beat him and failed. As a result of this dominant streak, every time a new Jones opponent is announced, it is usually a foregone conclusion that the challenger shall lose, and hence PPV sales have started to drop.
Enter Luke Rockhold.
The former UFC middleweight champion of the world has seen a sharp dip in form since winning the belt from Chris Weidman in December 2015 and during that time has been knocked out in two out of three fights and came very close to suffering a similar fate in the fight against David Branch that he ultimately won.
But a look at Rockhold's career until he won the middleweight strap is enough to put to rest any doubts about his technical skill level and all-around approach to the game. A languid athlete who is probably the best ground-and-pound artist in the world right now possesses a wicked Brazilian Jiu-jitsu and wrestling game and is a strong striker, Rockhold does have the complete mixed martial artists' toolkit. A cursory glance through his highlight reel which includes a one-armed guillotine choke of Michael Bisping, a butterfly sweep leading to an inverted kimura of Tim Boetsch, a dominant RNC victory over Lyoto Machida and a virtual battering of Weidman speaks volumes about how dangerous Rockhold can be. All of the athletes named above with the single exception of Weidman were light heavyweights at some point in their careers so dealing with the size is not going to be a problem for Rockhold.
Where he has lacked in recent times is quite simply confidence - after treating Michael Bisping too casually in their rematch Rockhold lost the belt to a couple of left hooks that he never saw coming, and that put out the blueprint for how to defeat him to the rest of the roster. David Branch got in multiple hooks before Rockhold could stem the flow and then Romero ended his night with another left hook in Australia. These striking deficiencies have become more glaring as Rockhold has lost and ultimately forced him to change weight classes in an attempt to stem the slide.
Rockhold is not a bad striker - in fact, quite the opposite. The only fighter who has a superior kicking game to Rockhold in the entire UFC is Edson Barboza, who is a lightweight and hence supposed to be faster. The difference in striking class was apparent in Rockhold's fights against Philippou whom he took out with a perfectly placed body kick, Bisping who was floored by a head kick in their first meeting and Weidman who despite landing the larger volume of strikes was severely beaten up on the feet. In fact, in the fight against Romero, Rockhold was showing an impressive improvement to his boxing game until he suffered the unfortunate reversal. All in all, it is not Rockhold's striking offence that needs work - it's his defence which is more a function of his confidence.
Now the move to 205 pounds and a run in with Jon Jones, which can be as soon as later this year.
The advantage that Rockhold has claimed he shall have at light heavyweight is not deflating his body by the cut down to 185 pounds. This shall allow him to pack in more muscle, power in his strikes and generally make him more comfortable in his headspace. Make no mistake, Rockhold is a natural 205 pounder so all the above might be very true. What needs to be seen is how this translates into performance in the Octagon as light heavyweights shall, of course, hit far harder than middleweights and a well-placed shot can expose his brittle chin.
But if Rockhold can get past the power of Jan Blachowicz who despite having a kickboxing background does not have a lot of KOs on a resume, then given the state of the division, perhaps Jones awaits in December.
Jones is younger by 3 years but that is not much of a separator for both men on the right side of 30. Till date, with the single exception of Gustafsson, Jones has not faced anyone who is almost as tall or taller than him - Rockhold shall negate this advantage. True, Jones shall have a 7.5-inch reach advantage but as Daniel Cormier showed at UFC 214 if you are willing to go forward, Jones is not the most difficult to hit - if DC can do that with a 72-inch reach, Rockhold surely can.
What sets Jon Jones apart from competition besides his physical gifts is his extraordinary fight IQ and ability to adapt. He adapts as the fight goes on and does not try to force a knockout or submission - to beat Jones a fighter has to keep up with him in every department, be it the striking, grappling, wrestling or the clinch. Rockhold is perhaps the first fighter who shall bring all these skills to the table against Jones in Jones' entire career.
Like Jones, Rockhold likes to fight at range and does not push for the finish. He has got a much stronger body kick (provided his left shin holds up) and a much wider range that he uses much more frequently than Jones cares to do. Jon Jones is an efficient boxer but not a knockout artist with his hands so Rockhold can relax a little there. Training so many years with DC and Cain have made Rockhold's defensive wrestling among the best in the business and once he gains top control, his ground and pound are devastating. Not to say that Jones can't adapt but this shall be a different game from what he has faced till now.
It should be an interesting match if it happens and if Rockhold manages to solve the Jones puzzle, he shall have achieved 2 things - become a two-division world champion in the UFC and hand Jon Jones his first legitimate defeat in the sport of MMA.
