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Joseph Benavidez (21-4) vs. John Moraga (16-3)
BETTING ODDS: Benavidez (-600), Moraga (+450)
Benavidez:- Mostly known a wrestle-grappler with some raw power in his hands, Benavidez has evolved into one of the best strikers in the division. The 30-year-old American is 8-2 overall in the UFC with wins over the likes of Eddie Wineland, Jussier Formiga and Ian McCall with his two losses coming to the champ Demetrious Johnson.
The member of ‘Team Alpha Male’ is an excellent grappler on the ground capable of pulling off slick submissions especially his trademark guillotine. He has good wrestling, his cardio is excellent, and he’s very technical and powerful on the feet. He is a finisher, as he finished 15 fighters in his 21 career victories. He targets head, body and legs in sequence, mixing up his strike location to keep his opponents guessing, and works at a fantastic pace.
After getting shockingly knocked out by the champ Johnson in their second encounter, he has picked up two nice wins over Tim Elliott and Dustin Ortiz to re-emerge as a contender, and a win over Moraga could put him right into that title mix.
Moraga:- Moraga is also an elite flyweight in the UFC. The 31-year-old American is 5-2 overall in the UFC with wins over Justin Scoggins, Ortiz, Willie Gates, Chris Cariaso and Ulysses Gomez with his only losses coming to the champ Johnson and John Dodson. Moraga’s game is defined by his opportunism and finishing ability, both on the feet and on the ground as of his five UFC wins four have come by stoppage.
Moraga is a tough, scrappy veteran who is good just about everywhere. He throws vicious power at range, with a strong preference for the left hook and right low kick, both as leads and as counters. The clinch might be Moraga’s best area, as he slices up his opponent with sharp elbows and hard knees while controlling against the cage.
Moraga’s guillotine is absolutely lethal, and he has a lightning-quick move to the back in transition. Moraga’s entire game depends on exploiting his opponent’s mistakes but when that doesn’t happen Moraga have found himself in trouble in the past.
Verdict:- The main card opener is an excellent flyweight matchup between two top tier flyweights but Benavidez is the more technical and consistent striker works at a much quicker pace and likely has more power, in short Benavidez is a better fighter than Moraga. Despite the steep betting line on Benavidez, I doubt he will finish Moraga here but unless Moraga catches Benavidez with a magical punch, I think this will end up being a straightforward unanimous decision victory for Benavidez.
Travis Browne (17-2-1) vs. Andrei Arlovski (23-10)
BETTING ODDS: Travis Browne (-440), Arlovski (+350)
Browne:- Browne, who recently moved from Jackson MMA in Albuquerque, to Glendale Fighting Club under the tutelage of Edmond Tarverdyan, is a legit top 10 heavyweight in the world. The 32-year-old Hawaiian is 8-2-1 in the UFC with Key wins over the likes of Alistair Overeem, Josh Barnett, Brendan Schaub, Gabriel Gonzaga and Stefan Struve with his only losses coming to Antonio Silva and Fabricio Werdum.
Browne is a big heavyweight who stands at 6’7″, Browne has an extremely long reach and he has power in all of his limbs. He has finished 15 of his 17 wins, including 13 by knockout, and he has seven stoppages in his eight UFC victories, which demonstrates his ability to finish fights. He is very athletic and is shockingly light on his feet for such a big heavyweight and explodes into his movements with surprising speed.
Takedown defense is a real strength of Browne’s game, and when he braces himself against the fence and snags an under hook, & has viciously knocked out two of his previous opponents by driving elbows and hammer fists into the side of their head. With an impressive win over Arlovski Browne could very well get a title shot or atleast a no. 1 contender’s match.
Arlovski:- Arlovski is one of the most fan favorite heavyweight fighters of all time. The 36-year-old Belarussian is a former UFC champion and has compiled a lifetime record of 12-4 while fighting in the Octagon, defeating the likes of Schaub, Silva, and Werdum. He also has big wins over Roy Nelson and Ben Rothwell during his time away from the UFC. Arlovski is a strong, powerful heavyweight with big-time power.
He has finished 19 fights in his career, with 16 of those wins coming by knockout. Arlovski’s once-elite skills are still more or less present despite his long tenure in the sport. He is a good athlete with outstanding hand speed, and his striking repertoire is still potent. He works behind a crisp jab and then whirls a hard right hand, which he often doubles up, as he did with the punch that knocked out “Bigfoot” Silva.
His timing on the counter is excellent, and he places his shots beautifully around and through his opponent’s guard. He takes good angles, moves well in space and mixes in the occasional kick at range. Arlovski is also suffocating in the clinch, & has decent takedown defense as well.
Verdict:- Despite betting odds seem too extreme here for a heavyweight fight which can be ended by one rightly placed punch by any man at any time, I still think Browne is the better, younger faster and probably more powerful fighter out of the two. I think Brown will finish the fight by cracking Arlovski chin the moment he connect it with his power shot.
