UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum - Preview and Predictions

UFC 188’s main event bout is for the unification of the UFC Undisputed Heavyweight Championship

UFC 188 has the makings of a solid card with a number of interesting style match-ups in the offing. The build-up to UFC 189, featuring the box-office sensation Connor McGregor and a champion who can legitimately be considered one of the greatest of all time,Jose Aldo, has easily overshadowed what is a UFC Undisputed Heavyweight Title unification title bout between Cain Velasquez and interim champion Fabricio Werdum, but expect entertaining fights in this card nonetheless.

Velasquez heads into the event at Mexico City after an injury lay-off almost spanning two years with Werdum, on the other hand, riding high on confidence after a five-match win streak in his UFC second coming.

Other match-ups include a women’s strawweight bout between highly rated Tecia Torres and #15 ranked Angela Hill, both of whom competed in The Ultimate Fighter show last year, and a showdown between Season 17’s winner, Kevin Gastellum and Nate Marquardt.

TUF Latin America’s victor Yair Rodriguez faces Charles Rosa of the USA and the war-prone Gilbert Melendez attempts to prove his standing in the UFC when he takes on Eddie Alvarez.All in all, the UFC 188 main card promises engaging encounters that MMA fans should not miss, and will air on Sony Six HD at 7.30 am IST on Sunday, June 14th.

Tecia “The Tiny Tornado” Torres (5-0-0) vs Angela “Overkill” Hill (2-0-0)

A women’s strawweight bout sees the highly rated Tecia Torres square off against Angela Hill, in a match that should be straight-forward by all accounts. Look for both fighters to stand up and trade shots, with the technically superior Tecia Torres going for the takedown when opportunity presents itself. Angela Hill is known for her reach and stand-up ability, but really needs to ensure that she presents unbreachable takedown defence. Watch for Angela Hill to try and maintain distance with her reach advantage and Tecia Torres to fight on the inside when possible. Unless Torres rushes into Hill’s strikes, expect the highly rated Torres to dominate the fight and score the victory eventually. If there was a time to display dimensionality in her fighting technique, it would be now for Angela Hill. She could make a strong statement if she manages to pick off Tecia Torres.

Prediction: Torres wins via Decision

Yair “El Pantera” Rodriguez (5-1-0) vs Charles “Boston Strong” Rosa (10-1-0)

Yair Rodriguez and Charles Roza during the pre-match conference

A classic striker vs grappler dynamic, the general consensus surrounding this match seems to indicate that TUF Latin America winner, Yair Rodriguez has been over-matched. As an up and coming fighter in the UFC, he faces trial by fire against an elite featherweight wrestler in Charles Rosa.

I see Yair trying to keep this match standing throughout, and in the process, try and out-strike Charles Rosa and prevent him from getting too close. He has to display considerable takedown defence and hope that he can TKO Rosa while keeping the fight standing. Rodriguez’s chances slim greatly if the fight gets taken to the ground.

Not famous for his striking game, Rosa will clearly look for the takedown and finish the fight early with either submissions or ground and pound. His loss to Dennis Siver nonetheless procured fight of the night honours, and proves that he can go the distance with a striker. If this fight continues on till the 3rd round, expect Rosa to drag Rodriguez into the deep end and “drown” him.

Prediction: Rosa via Submission, Round 2

Kelvin “The Kid” Gastelum (11-1-0) vs Nate “The Great” Marquardt

Kelvin Gastelum has been a perennial underdog through-out his career but enters this match on equal footing with former Strikeforce veteran Nate Marquardt. Both fighters are well rounded but Kevin Gastelum’s ground game is advanced and often underrated for a budding 23 year old fighter.

After not making weight for the last 2 fights in the welterweight division, Gastelum has been re-woven into the Middleweight category – something he is looking forward to reversing at the earliest given the talented nature of the weight class.

Expect this fight to be pretty one-sided. Marquardt, despite being a veteran, seems past his prime, and is coming off 4 losses in his last 5 fights, while KG has everything to prove to Dana. Expect Gastelum to finish Marquardt either by striking or submission, and possibly a quick finish if they go to the ground early.

Prediction: Gastelum wins via Submission/TKO, Round 1

Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez (22-4-0) vs Eddie Alvarez (25-4-0)

There is a general feeling that this fight might make away with the Fight of the Night honours, given how evenly matched up these two fighters are. Melendez is a former Strikeforce Champion and Alvarez a former Bellator Lightweight Champion, with both of them are fighting to make a lasting impression on the UFC landscape and remain relevant in the title picture.

Expect an evenly contested fight, both in the stand-up and ground departments. Alvarez perhaps has the edge with striking but Melendez has been in wars before, and does not mind standing up with his opponent and throwing, even if it means he is in the firing line.

Also, expect some decent BJJ from both fighters when the fight goes to the ground. This match could come down to who wants it more at the end of the day as both fighters are well-rounded and equally accomplished.

Prediction: Melendez via Decision

Cain Velasquez (13-1-0) vs Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum (19-5-1)

Who will be crowned the undisputed UFC Heavyweight Champion?

Cain Velasquez has never been much of a talker but is undisputedly “the man” in the UFC right now. Having exposed Lesnar’s glass chin, out-classed Bigfoot twice and brushed away Dos Santos, Velasquez is considered to be in a league of his own in the heavyweight category in the UFC currently. Fabricio Werdum is on a 5 match winning streak and has fought twice in the time that Velasquez was out injured.

The possibility of Velasquez experiencing ring-rust renders this fight slightly more tricky to call, and Werdum wasted no time in highlighting that. Reluctantly almost, Werdum has indulged in sub-standard smack-talking against Velasquez for the purpose of creating hype surrounding the fight, but reports emanating from the Mexican-American’s camp is that instead of getting into his head, Velasquez has been rubbed the wrong way.

Stylistically it is the ridiculously well-rounded Velasquez up against the finest Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu exponent he has faced till now in Werdum. Expect Velasquez to have a distinct advantage in striking when standing up, so much so that Werdum has to force a takedown. Despite Werdum knocking out Mark Hunt with a flying knee in his previous fight, I really don’t think his striking game is on the same level as Velasquez, nor do I expect Velasquez to give him the opening that Hunt offered.Expect Werdum to neutralise Velasquez by attempting to take him down and look for a submission, for he has to take the fight to the ground to stand any chance. Velasquez on the other hand, can choose to either keep the fight standing or look for the ground and pound.

In a perfect world Velasquez should win this fight, but if one recalls how Werdum beat Fedor Emilianenko, he took immense punishment on his back, before looking for an armbar that transitioned into a triangle choke to finish the match. Velasquez cannot afford to let his guard slip, even when Werdum is on his back, and has to look to put him away at the first opportunity. This is clearly Velasquez’s fight to lose.