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This weekend sees the penultimate UFC pay-per-view of 2018, as UFC 231 comes to us live from Toronto, Ontario, Canada. We’ve got two title fights on tap for the show as well as a card full of other intriguing bouts, and while it doesn’t look as strong a card overall as UFC 229, it’s certainly up there with the most loaded of the year.
Interestingly, the last time the UFC visited Toronto was almost exactly two years ago for UFC 206. That show saw Max Holloway capture the interim UFC Featherweight title in the main event, and of course, this weekend will see him defend the full title against top contender Brian Ortega.
With high-action fighters such as Thiago Santos, Alex Oliveira and Kyle Bochniak on the undercard, hopefully this should be a fantastic show to watch.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
#1 Max Holloway vs. Brian Ortega
A fight that has been brewing for most of 2018, the Featherweight title match between champion Max Holloway and challenger Brian Ortega is arguably the most highly anticipated title fight of the year, particularly from the perspective of hardcore fans. Both men have been on absolutely fantastic runs and it’s honestly hard to envision anything other than an instant classic on Saturday.
Of course, the Holloway/Ortega fight was initially booked for July’s UFC 226, but was cancelled when Holloway displayed “concussion-like symptoms” during the build for the fight, most notably in a televised interview with Michael Bisping that saw him slurring his words and appear to be dazed and confused. It was perhaps the strangest interview since Chuck Liddell’s infamous appearance on Good Morning Texas back in 2007.
That issue was highly worrying given Holloway’s penchant over the years for taking punishing shots from his opponents – and somehow soaking them up with a granite chin – but supposedly, the Hawaiian is now fit and healthy again. Still, the fact that we’re only five months removed from this incident is still hard to overlook.
Prior to 2018 – an injury-filled year that also saw ‘Blessed’ drop out of a planned March fight with Frankie Edgar due to a foot injury, and then an April meeting with Khabib Nurmagomedov due to weight-cutting issues – Holloway was looking like a potential pound-for-pound great.
Ever since his loss to Conor McGregor back in August 2013, Holloway has been perfect inside the Octagon – winning an insane 12 fights in a row including two complete beatdowns of arguably the greatest Featherweight in the sport’s history, Jose Aldo.
Holloway’s style is interesting – he uses his reach to pressure his opponent with incredible kickboxing combinations at a rapid pace, and he’s extremely fond of using wicked body shots to sap his foe’s cardio. Despite being a skilled striker, the Hawaiian loves to trade blows too – and usually comes out on top due to that iron chin.
On the ground he’s no joke either – he’s not the greatest wrestler, but in the scramble, he’s phenomenal and has displayed an extremely nasty guillotine choke. Essentially, when Holloway is at his best, he doesn’t really have any notable weaknesses to his game.
Challenger Ortega meanwhile appears to have plenty of weaknesses in his game; he tends to start his fights relatively slowly, he appears to be hittable in striking exchanges and while he’s a genuine world-class black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, he’s also worryingly happy to work from his back, which often doesn’t impress the judges.
So why is he in this spot? To be quite frank, Ortega is simply a winner and a finisher, too. He’s unbeaten at 14-0 – 7-0 in the UFC – and he’s never gone the distance since arriving in the UFC in mid-2014. You could even make an argument that he was behind in literally all of his fights before pulling out the victory.
It’s this style that arguably makes Ortega so dangerous. He’s clearly willing to give up positions and take wild risks because he believes in his finishing instincts so much. Prior to 2018 it looked like it was his grappling that was by far the most dangerous weapon in his arsenal – but that was before he managed to become the first fighter to knock Frankie Edgar unconscious in their fight in March.
And while Holloway has become a tricky proposition on the ground, he isn’t quite on Ortega’s level. The way ‘T-City’ was able to latch onto a guillotine to finish Cub Swanson last December was unbelievable – something very few fighters could pull off. But then Ortega isn’t your usual fighter.
Assuming Holloway is healthy, you’d have to make him the favourite in this fight. He’s beaten tougher opposition – though not by a large margin – and he’s more consistent in his offense, to the point where I could see him piecing Ortega up on the feet with his combinations while not allowing the fight to hit the ground. But to predict that would mean Ortega’s unbelievable penchant for seizing an opportunity from nowhere is counted out.
This will be a massively tough fight for ‘T-City’ as Holloway will likely pressure him like he’s never been pressured before, but unless ‘Blessed’ can take the Californian out early, I find it almost impossible to envision a 25-minute fight that doesn’t see Ortega get at least one chance to grab onto Holloway’s neck or land a clean shot. Throw in the worries around Holloway’s health, and I’m taking Ortega to find another miraculous finish.
The Pick: Ortega via fourth round submission
#2 Valentina Shevchenko vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk
After a disastrous year for the division, Women’s Flyweight should crown a new champion here as the former Bantamweight title challenger Shevchenko takes on the former Strawweight champion in Jedrzejczyk. For those who’ve forgotten, Shevchenko was initially pegged to challenge Nicco Montano for the title back at UFC 228, but Montano failed to make weight and was subsequently stripped of her title.
The UFC then attempted to make a fight between Shevchenko and Sijara Eubanks for the vacant title, but thankfully that pairing was scrapped in favour of this much more intriguing one. This is a battle of two of the best female strikers in the UFC right now – in fact, the two have faced off before in Muay Thai competition with Shevchenko coming out on top – and the winner will cut much more of an imposing figure than Montano did at the peak of the division.
This will be Joanna’s first fight at Flyweight – after dropping her title in a stunning upset to Rose Namajunas just over a year ago, she then attempted to reclaim her title, but struggled to deal with the movement and reach of ‘Thug’ and was outpointed over 5 rounds. A win over Tecia Torres got her back on track, but evidently she’s decided the cut to 115lbs isn’t for her any more, and decided that a move to 125lbs could re-invigorate her.
Shevchenko meanwhile made the drop to 125lbs earlier this year and had a successful debut, crushing Priscila Cachoeira, although it must be noted that the Brazilian was wildly overmatched and had never faced anyone near to the level of ‘Bullet’.
For me this comes down to two factors; firstly, whether Shevchenko can put enough activity together to win rounds from Jedrzejczyk, and secondly, whether Shevchenko decides to use her excellent grappling game to ground her Polish opponent and perhaps fish for a submission.
In terms of the first area, Jedrzejczyk has always been a super-active striker who chains together combinations and doesn’t tend to let up with her pressure inside the cage. A precise striker, the Polish native is equally violent from the clinch as she is at range.
That could prove to be tricky for Shevchenko, who notably lost her title fight with Amanda Nunes precisely due to a lack of activity – the fight turned into a staring contest for great swathes, and in the end Nunes did just about enough to outpoint ‘Bullet’. If Shevchenko can’t put together more activity on Saturday – I think Jedrzejczyk is too good of a striker to eat counters consistently – then she’ll likely lose a decision.
Could she take Joanna to the ground, though? Few opponents at 115lbs were able to test Jedrzejczyk’s takedown defense, while Shevchenko has taken down larger opponents like Nunes and Sarah Kaufman in her time in the Octagon, and showed surprisingly great grappling to submit the powerful Julianna Pena in early 2017.
Overall this is a very tough fight to pick because I could see Jedrzejczyk doing enough to outpoint Shevchenko on the feet for 5 rounds just as easily as I could see Shevchenko taking Joanna down and beating her up to set up a submission.
I’m going with Shevchenko in this one; it just feels like she’s been waiting too long for her chance at this title and I can’t see her letting it slip, and with her added size and power I suspect if she feels like she’s struggling to match Jedrzejczyk’s output standing, she’ll be able to take her down, even if it’s a difficult task. And on the ground I just can’t trust a fighter as unproven there as Joanna against someone as dangerous as ‘Bullet’.
The Pick: Shevchenko via unanimous decision
#3 Alex Oliveira vs. Gunnar Nelson
Early in his Octagon stint, Brazil’s ‘Cowboy’ Oliveira appeared to be a reliable action fighter who probably wouldn’t bother the elite of the UFC, but 2018 saw him pick up his biggest win to date over former interim Welterweight champ Carlos Condit. A squash over the massively overmatched Carlo Pedersoli followed, but this fight should be a different kind of challenge altogether.
It’s been well over a year since Iceland’s Nelson has appeared in the Octagon – his last fight was a devastating knockout at the hands of Santiago Ponzinibbio – but he brings the kind of game that’s difficult for anyone to deal with, complete with world-class grappling chops and a karate-based striking game that makes excellent use of distance and timing.
For me Oliveira is a fascinating case in that he’s a devastating offensive fighter, but his defense is somewhat lacking in comparison; he’s shown tremendous grappling in plenty of his fights, but was rather easily tapped out by Donald Cerrone in their fight, and had trouble against Condit and Ryan LaFlare before overcoming those opponents later on. And while he clearly hits hard, he’s also hittable – as evidenced in his wild loss to Yancy Medeiros.
Nelson meanwhile has the kind of grappling that’s basically unparalleled in the division, although he doesn’t always have the offensive wrestling to implement it to its full strength, as evidenced in his fights with Demian Maia and Rick Story. And while he’s surprised excellent kickboxers like Albert Tumenov and Brandon Thatch with his striking, he also carries his chin too highly – which cost him dearly against Ponzinibbio.
For me this one likely comes down to whether Oliveira can land a bomb on Nelson before the Icelander gets hold of him and drags him to the ground – where he’s likely to submit the Brazilian with little difficulty. After a devastating knockout loss I suspect Nelson will be looking to protect his chin like never before, and so I think he’ll get inside and force ‘Cowboy’ to the ground, where he should be able to put him away.
The Pick: Nelson via first round submission
#4 Hakeem Dawodu vs. Kyle Bochniak
On even their biggest pay-per-view shows, the UFC always seems to manage to showcase one fight that doesn’t really belong on the main card. Case in point here; the prelims feature 6 ranked fighters, including two in Claudia Gadelha and Eryk Anders who have main evented UFC shows before, and yet a fight between the unranked duo of Dawodu and Bochniak is on the portion that fans have to actually pay for. It’s baffling in my opinion.
That’s not to say this will be a bad fight, though; Bochniak is aggressive and reckless to a point and while he’s lost 3 fights inside the Octagon since his 2016 debut, his wild showing against Zabit Magomedsharipov in a losing effort probably gained him a lot of fans. Not the most technical striker, Bochniak tends to throw bombs with a lot of power, but his willingness to trade and wade through his opponent’s offense makes him dangerous.
Dawodu on the other hand is an explosive prospect who thus far hasn’t quite lived up to the hype. After putting together an unbeaten 7-0 record in WSOF, he was upset by the unheralded Danny Henry in his UFC debut – dropped and submitted inside a minute – and then outpointed the equally unheralded Austin Arnett in a largely forgettable fight in July.
Dawodu is probably the better athlete and a more technical kickboxer, but I’m not sure that he can pick apart Bochniak – something even the great Magomedsharipov struggled with – and if Bochniak can wade in and turn this into a firefight, his power could prove to be the difference.
The Pick: Bochniak via unanimous decision
#5 Jimi Manuwa vs. Thiago Santos
This fight was initially pegged to main event September’s Fight Night 137, but when Manuwa went down with an injury, Santos instead defeated last-minute replacement Eryk Anders in a pretty wild brawl. This fight is likely to follow the same path, as both men are classic glass cannons; they hit like trucks and have the power to take out anyone at 205lbs, but they also struggle with both defending and taking a big shot.
It was that lack of a solid chin that likely stopped Manuwa from claiming a title shot at 205lbs earlier in 2018. Faced with Volkan Oezdemir in what looked like a title eliminator in July 2017, Manuwa took some heavy shots from the clinch in the first exchange and was knocked out cold. A disappointing loss to Jan Blachowicz followed in March, as Manuwa struggled with the stiff jab – but mainly the punching power – of the Polish striker.
Santos meanwhile moved to 205lbs for that fight with a fellow blown-up Middleweight in Anders. He may have been inspired by the success of Anthony Smith in the relatively thin division, as ‘Marreta’ actually destroyed Smith in February prior to Smith’s move to 205lbs and charge into title contention.
A devastating striker, Santos attacks his opponents with vicious flurries of wild hooks, spinning kicks and most notably, a nasty body kick that he’s used to put away more than one opponent. His grappling is clearly his weakest area – he was easily submitted by Eric Spicely in 2016 – but his chin is also a notable weakness, as David Branch knocked him out in April in a major shocker.
This is likely to come down to who can land first, as I honestly don’t believe either man can stand up to the other’s striking power. Two years ago I’d have favoured Manuwa – he’s the more technical striker, particularly with his boxing, and his timing is impeccable when it comes to counter-shots. But at 38 years old he looked markedly slower than ever against Blachowicz, and it may be that his athletic window is beginning to close.
That means I’m favouring the younger, faster and equally hard-hitting striker in Santos. Manuwa could turn out his lights if ‘Marreta’ gets too wild, but I’m betting that the Brazilian finds the Brit’s chin and sends him to the canvas early and violently.
The Pick: Santos via first round knockout
#6 The Prelims – Fox Sports 1 card
A battle of top-ranked Strawweights headlines the FS1 prelim card as former title challenger Claudia Gadelha takes on the surging Nina Ansaroff, who also happens to be the partner of current Bantamweight champ Amanda Nunes. This should come down to whether Gadelha – who pulled off an unconvincing win over Carla Esparza in June – can impose her grappling on Ansaroff, who is more of a striker. I’m going with Gadelha as I feel like Esparza, with her powerful wrestling, was always a tricky match for her, and in hindsight she also did well standing with Jessica Andrade despite losing that fight eventually. Ansaroff simply isn’t as proven against top-ranked opposition and I think her run ends here, so I’m taking Gadelha via decision.
In another key Flyweight bout, Jessica Eye takes on Katlyn Chookagian in what could prove to be a #1 contender’s fight; given both women have 2 strong wins each in the division. Eye relies on her super-fast hands and a decent grappling game that became somewhat underused against the larger opponents she faced at 135lbs, while Chookagian fights with a range striking style similar to former Bantamweight champ Holly Holm. If Eye can get inside and turn this into a firefight I’d favour her, but I’m not sure that she can track ‘Blonde Fighter’ down inside the cage. I’m going with Chookagian via decision, potentially in a controversial call.
Eryk Anders makes his return to Middleweight against Elias Theodorou in a match of rising prospects, and this one should come down to Anders’ brutally powerful striking and takedowns against Theodorou’s more elusive style and energy-sapping pace. I like Theodorou here; ‘The Spartan’ is by far the better technical fighter and if he can avoid a bomb from Anders, I think he’s got the advantage in all areas. I’m taking him by third round TKO after using his rangy kicking game and underrated grappling to wear ‘Ya Boi’ down.
In a battle of grapplers, Canada’s Olivier Aubin-Mercier faces off with BJJ whiz Gilbert Burns at 155lbs. Both men have also worked on their striking, but it’s Burns who’s shown more power – even if he was knocked out by Dan Hooker earlier in the year. It’s a close fight to pick but I think Burns probably has a slight advantage in all areas, so I’m taking him via decision.
#7 The Prelims: Fight Pass card
Headlining the Fight Pass prelim card we’ve got a battle of 205lbers that sees Devin Clark face off with Aleksandar Rakic. Hailing from Austria, Rakic burst onto the scene earlier this year by surprisingly outpointing former Heavyweight Justin Ledet with relative ease, largely by mixing up his striking with a strong wrestling game. Clark is a strong wrestler himself, but doesn’t appear to be as well-rounded as Rakic and I think he could be in trouble if Rakic can really push the action. I’m taking Rakic by decision in this one.
At Bantamweight, TUF 27 winner Brad Katona takes on Matthew Lopez, who was surprisingly knocked out by Alejandro Perez in April. Prior to that he’d looked like a prospect to watch, as he defeated Mitch Gagnon and then knocked out notable striker Jonny Eduardo in 2017. A Canadian based out of Ireland, Katona largely used his grappling to win TUF – particularly in the final against Jay Cucciniello – but I just don’t think he can hold Lopez down like that as I’d suspect Lopez is the better grappler and he’s faced much tougher opposition. Lopez by decision is my pick.
Finally, a clash of Welterweights opens the card as Canadian favourite Chad Laprise takes on former TUF finalist Dhiego Lima. In purely offensive terms Lima is an awesome fighter, as he combines knockout power standing with a super-dangerous grappling game, but his chin simply can’t back up such a reckless style, and Laprise is a clean and technical striker even if he looks undersized at 170lbs. I’ll take Laprise via first-round knockout.
