UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega - Predictions and Picks

#3 Alex Oliveira vs. Gunnar Nelson

Alex Oliveira is one of the most aggressive fighters in the UFC

Early in his Octagon stint, Brazil’s ‘Cowboy’ Oliveira appeared to be a reliable action fighter who probably wouldn’t bother the elite of the UFC, but 2018 saw him pick up his biggest win to date over former interim Welterweight champ Carlos Condit. A squash over the massively overmatched Carlo Pedersoli followed, but this fight should be a different kind of challenge altogether.

It’s been well over a year since Iceland’s Nelson has appeared in the Octagon – his last fight was a devastating knockout at the hands of Santiago Ponzinibbio – but he brings the kind of game that’s difficult for anyone to deal with, complete with world-class grappling chops and a karate-based striking game that makes excellent use of distance and timing.

For me Oliveira is a fascinating case in that he’s a devastating offensive fighter, but his defense is somewhat lacking in comparison; he’s shown tremendous grappling in plenty of his fights, but was rather easily tapped out by Donald Cerrone in their fight, and had trouble against Condit and Ryan LaFlare before overcoming those opponents later on. And while he clearly hits hard, he’s also hittable – as evidenced in his wild loss to Yancy Medeiros.

Nelson meanwhile has the kind of grappling that’s basically unparalleled in the division, although he doesn’t always have the offensive wrestling to implement it to its full strength, as evidenced in his fights with Demian Maia and Rick Story. And while he’s surprised excellent kickboxers like Albert Tumenov and Brandon Thatch with his striking, he also carries his chin too highly – which cost him dearly against Ponzinibbio.

For me this one likely comes down to whether Oliveira can land a bomb on Nelson before the Icelander gets hold of him and drags him to the ground – where he’s likely to submit the Brazilian with little difficulty. After a devastating knockout loss I suspect Nelson will be looking to protect his chin like never before, and so I think he’ll get inside and force ‘Cowboy’ to the ground, where he should be able to put him away.

The Pick: Nelson via first round submission