UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega - Predictions and Picks

#5 Jimi Manuwa vs. Thiago Santos

Thiago Santos has moved to 205lbs and is now hunting a title shot

This fight was initially pegged to main event September’s Fight Night 137, but when Manuwa went down with an injury, Santos instead defeated last-minute replacement Eryk Anders in a pretty wild brawl. This fight is likely to follow the same path, as both men are classic glass cannons; they hit like trucks and have the power to take out anyone at 205lbs, but they also struggle with both defending and taking a big shot.

It was that lack of a solid chin that likely stopped Manuwa from claiming a title shot at 205lbs earlier in 2018. Faced with Volkan Oezdemir in what looked like a title eliminator in July 2017, Manuwa took some heavy shots from the clinch in the first exchange and was knocked out cold. A disappointing loss to Jan Blachowicz followed in March, as Manuwa struggled with the stiff jab – but mainly the punching power – of the Polish striker.

Santos meanwhile moved to 205lbs for that fight with a fellow blown-up Middleweight in Anders. He may have been inspired by the success of Anthony Smith in the relatively thin division, as ‘Marreta’ actually destroyed Smith in February prior to Smith’s move to 205lbs and charge into title contention.

A devastating striker, Santos attacks his opponents with vicious flurries of wild hooks, spinning kicks and most notably, a nasty body kick that he’s used to put away more than one opponent. His grappling is clearly his weakest area – he was easily submitted by Eric Spicely in 2016 – but his chin is also a notable weakness, as David Branch knocked him out in April in a major shocker.

This is likely to come down to who can land first, as I honestly don’t believe either man can stand up to the other’s striking power. Two years ago I’d have favoured Manuwa – he’s the more technical striker, particularly with his boxing, and his timing is impeccable when it comes to counter-shots. But at 38 years old he looked markedly slower than ever against Blachowicz, and it may be that his athletic window is beginning to close.

That means I’m favouring the younger, faster and equally hard-hitting striker in Santos. Manuwa could turn out his lights if ‘Marreta’ gets too wild, but I’m betting that the Brazilian finds the Brit’s chin and sends him to the canvas early and violently.

The Pick: Santos via first round knockout