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For over a decade now it’s been somewhat of a tradition for the UFC to sign the year off with a big show – from Liddell vs. Ortiz in 2006 and Lesnar vs. Overeem in 2011 to Silva vs. Weidman in 2013 and Rousey vs. Nunes in 2016 – and it looks like 2018 is going to be no exception.
UFC 232 takes place on Saturday 29th December from The Forum in Inglewood,California and we’ve got two huge title fights scheduled, as well as a pretty packed undercard. With two of the biggest stars in the sport – Jon Jones and Cris Cyborg – at the top of the card and big stars like BJ Penn, Andrei Arlovski and Cat Zingano on the prelims, this should be a box office hit too.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2.
#1 Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson
Well, it’s been a long time coming. Jones and Gustafsson first faced off in September 2013 with Jones’ Light-Heavyweight title on the line, and what seemed like a routine title defence for ‘Bones’ soon turned into a trench war, with Gustafsson almost prising the title away from him only to fall to a late rally and come up short on the judges’ scorecards.
The fight was a consensus choice for Fight of the Year, and many fans actually felt Gustafsson deserved the nod. After the Swede picked up a win over Jimi Manuwa – and Jones defeated Glover Teixeira in another title defence – the rematch was booked for September 2014’s UFC 178. But of course, it didn’t happen – Gustafsson got hurt, Daniel Cormier stepped in, and then ‘The Mauler’ lost to Anthony Johnson in early 2015.
From there it’s been a pretty convoluted path to this fight, with Gustafsson losing in another title fight to Cormier, but winning against Jan Blachowicz and Glover Teixeira, and Jones being stripped of his title twice for various infractions including two busts for positive PED tests. To add more confusion, this fight is for the vacant Light-Heavyweight title, as the UFC have stripped Daniel Cormier to allow him to focus purely on his Heavyweight title reign. Whew.
In all honesty, it’s tricky to see how this one will go down because things have changed so much since that first meeting. Both men remain largely the same fighters in terms of their skill-set, but they’ve had long layoffs to contend with; Gustafsson hasn’t fought since his May 2017 victory over Teixeira due to injuries and contract issues, while Jones has obviously been suspended since July 2017.
For me, there are more question marks around Jones, though. Gustafsson looked fantastic during that fight with Teixeira, using his knowledge of range and distance to abuse the Brazilian with jabs and uppercuts, and while he was suffering from an existing back injury in his fight with Blachowicz, he showed some solid wrinkles in his wrestling game, taking the Pole down and using his ground-and-pound for the victory – although worryingly, Blachowicz tagged him numerous times on the feet.
Jones on the other hand obviously looked brilliant in his fight with Cormier; he worked through some adversity as Cormier caught him cleanly on a few occasions, largely outwrestled the Olympian, and picked away at him using his range until the third round head kick that ended the fight. But of course, post-fight he tested positive for the banned steroid turinabol.
It was Jones’ second positive test for a banned substance – ignoring his cocaine issue in 2015 – and in all honesty, that simply has to bring his great run from 2010 to 2015 into question. Could ‘Bones’ have been cheating throughout his UFC career? Nobody knows for sure, but it’s entirely possible; USADA only started working with the UFC in 2015 and since then, Jones is one of the only fighters to test positive twice.
If that’s the case, then who knows how Jones will look coming back from his latest suspension, assuming he’s clean? Add in the fact that he’s been out of action for well over a year, and is coming back to face a man who, stylistically, is still probably his toughest fight in the division, and I just don’t know if we’re about to see the “old” Jon Jones.
Gustafsson has fewer questions around him, but obviously, it’s still a difficult fight for him. He knows he came close to beating Jones in 2013, but a lot has happened since then – most notably his knockout loss to Johnson and a string of pretty serious injuries. And he’s been on the shelf for even longer than Jones.
I’d love to pick Gustafsson here, but I’m just not sure that I can justify the pick – he had a lot of success against Jones last time with his takedown defense and rangy striking style, but still came up slightly short. While he’s improved slightly since then, Jones seems to have another level in his arsenal – the level he used to tear the sway of the fightback from Gustafsson in 2013 and the level he unleashed on Cormier last summer – and it’s near impossible to pick against him.
Barring something out of the ordinary happening – as in, Jones coming in seriously depleted – I think ‘Bones’ wins this one via decision.
The Pick: Jones via unanimous decision
#2 Cris Cyborg vs. Amanda Nunes
The co-main event sees a ‘superfight’ between UFC Women’s Featherweight champion Cris ‘Cyborg’ Justino, and UFC Women’s Bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes. Usually I don’t like these kind of champion vs. champion fights as they hold up the respective divisions, but in this case, I don’t mind; Nunes doesn’t have a clear-cut top contender right now and 145lbs is essentially an empty division outside of Cyborg.
Last time we saw Cyborg in fact, she squashed a hugely overmatched opponent in Yana Kunitskaya – a newcomer to the UFC who was also a natural 135lber. Before that, she faced Holly Holm and Tonya Evinger – another two natural 135lbers – which should demonstrate how thin her division actually is.
That makes Nunes a fun challenge for her. ‘The Lioness’ is unbeaten at 135lbs since 2014, with 7 straight victories, and she’s looked fantastic in most of those outings. She’s also a large Bantamweight, meaning the step up to Featherweight shouldn’t prove to be too problematic, unlike Evinger for instance who looked terribly outsized there.
Offensively, Nunes is a great fighter. She hits incredibly hard, chains combinations together standing including some vicious leg kicks, she has strong takedowns and ruthless ground strikes, and she can submit opponents too. Historically, her problem has been with her stamina – unsurprisingly for such a ferocious fighter – and that was largely what cost her in her last loss to Cat Zingano.
On the surface – given she’s won two 5-round fights in the past 18 months – you’d have thought that stamina issue was fixed, but that may not be the case. Nunes didn’t gas out against Valentina Shevchenko or Raquel Pennington, but that was because she changed her style and became much more economic – using bursts of offense instead of the wild assault she once did – but much less dangerous in the process.
When Alistair Overeem became more economic for instance, he became more dangerous in a lot of ways – but that’s because Overeem carries one-shot kill power. Nunes hits hard, but overwhelming her opponents with a wild assault was always her forte, not one-punch knockouts. So that trend is somewhat worrying for the Brazilian.
Cyborg has also changed up the berserker style we once saw in StrikeForce, but that hasn’t made her any less effective. She’s a far more technical striker than she once was, as we saw when she outpointed noted striker Holly Holm last year – that fight saw her absorb Holm’s best shots before working out her timing and range to snipe at ‘The Preacher’s Daughter’ with excellent counter-strikes.
For me, the key to beating Cyborg is a two-fold problem; firstly an opponent would need to be able to stand up to her striking power – which Holm did, for instance – but they’d also need to be able to hurt her back, which has proven to be a near-impossible task for all of her opponents, largely because they’re simply not big and strong enough to do so.
So does Nunes have that kind of power? She might, but then she took an age to put away an overmatched Pennington, she couldn’t really stun Shevchenko in their second fight, and the only woman she’s put away quickly with strikes recently was Ronda Rousey, who clearly had a vulnerability in that area.
Throw in the fact that Nunes was beaten down on the ground by Zingano and Cyborg is also has a powerful takedown and vicious ground-and-pound, and I just can’t see ‘The Lioness’ having many advantages here. Even if she comes out all-guns-blazing as she once loved to do, it could play into Cyborg’s counter-striking game. And if she doesn’t, then she’s likely to find herself technically outgunned anyway.
Whether Cyborg sticks around after this fight is unknown; she’s mooted leaving the UFC but I don’t think their notorious ‘champion’s clause’ would allow her to move to a competitor like Bellator, but I think she retains her title here for sure.
The Pick: Cyborg via third round TKO
#3 Carlos Condit vs. Michael Chiesa
This is a fascinating fight between a former champion at 170lbs who’s fallen on hard times, and a man who simply found getting to 155lbs too difficult at this point in his career. For Condit, it’s a chance to get his career back on track after 4 straight losses, while for Chiesa, it’s a chance to become an instant contender in a new division by knocking off one of its biggest names.
In terms of how they match up, a handful of years ago I’d have been comfortable in saying that Condit has a striking advantage, and despite his downturn, I think he probably still does. Chiesa’s never been a natural kickboxer; despite his lanky frame he’s always tended to use his grappling first, and Condit almost matches his 76” reach and has always chained his strikes together well, unleashing combinations of kicks, long punches, and knees and elbows from in close.
The problem for Condit has always been with his ground game. It’s not that he’s a bad grappler by any means – I’d go as far as to call him fantastic on the ground – but he simply doesn’t have the best takedown defense, largely because he’s all too willing to work off his back for submissions or sweeps. That’d be all well and good if the judges working in MMA didn’t favour the top position so much – but they do, and that tendency to fight off his back cost Condit big fights with Martin Kampmann and Johny Hendricks.
More recently though, not only has his takedown defense still been porous, but he hasn’t been attacking as well from his back either. He was comfortably controlled from the top by Neil Magny a year ago, and was then submitted by Alex Oliveira – albeit in a fight he was arguably winning. It was the first time he’d been submitted since 2006.
That’s worrying for him against Chiesa, who has great takedowns and is excellent at controlling an opponent on the ground. He’s also got one of the nastiest rear naked chokes in the UFC – and he’s used it to submit excellent grapplers like Beneil Dariush and Jim Miller.
Five years ago I’d have taken Condit to damage Chiesa standing and on the ground, while fending off his submission attacks, but now I just can’t trust ‘The Natural Born Killer’. It feels like 16 years of fights – most of them absolute wars – have finally caught up with him, and most likely, it was his insane brawl with Robbie Lawler in early 2016 which pushed him over that edge.
Condit might have some early success with his combinations but at some point, Chiesa is going to secure a clinch and a takedown – and he’ll likely end things with a choke from there.
The Pick: Chiesa via second round submission
#4 Ilir Latifi vs. Corey Anderson
In a battle of two top-ten 205lbers, TUF 19 winner Anderson faces off with cult favourite Latifi in a fight that could push one of them into genuine title contention; with Jones and Gustafsson facing off for the vacant belt and no clear-cut top contender right now, a title fight could actually be on the horizon for the winner.
The key to winning this fight could come down to wrestling; both men love to take their opponent down and work from the top, and in their recent wins over Tyson Pedro and Glover Teixeira respectively this game was extremely evident. So who’s more likely to put the other man on their back here? Well, Latifi is extremely stocky and powerful, but against strong wrestlers like Ryan Bader, his takedowns haven’t been as effective, and Anderson is a Division III All-American wrestler – which means he likely has the advantage.
On the feet, it’s clear that while Latifi has clubbing power – as evidenced in his wins over Hans Stringer and Sean O’Connell, as well as the knockdown against Ovince St. Preux which led to his guillotine choke victory – he isn’t the most technical striker. That isn’t to say he’s terrible defensively – he’s only been stopped twice by strikes although he was easily picked apart by Gegard Mousasi using little more than a jab – but he’s clearly hittable at times.
Anderson meanwhile has also looked hittable, particularly in his fights with St. Preux, Jimi Manuwa and Shogun Rua, but recently his striking has looked hugely improved. He was able to largely outstrike Teixeira in their fight – and Teixeira is a notable, proven kickboxer – and that also allowed him to set up his takedowns excellently.
Overall I favour Anderson here; he’s a better striker and I think he can use that to set up his takedowns and put Latifi onto his back, where he should be able to hold him down and work him over for a likely decision. Latifi could catch him with something nasty – and if he can, it’s likely he’ll put him away for either a TKO or a submission set up from the knockdown – but judging on the Teixeira fight I think ‘Overtime’ will have enough to stay out of trouble and win this fight.
The Pick: Anderson via decision
#5 Chad Mendes vs. Alexander Volkanovski
This is an excellent fight at 145lbs; Australia’s Volkanovski is unbeaten in the UFC at 5-0 and he’s been slowly climbing the ranks since his debut – and picked up his biggest win to date over Darren Elkins in July. Mendes meanwhile came back from a USADA suspension in the summer to defeat Myles Jury in impressive fashion – picking up his first win since 2015 in the process.
For me, this comes down to whether Mendes can comfortably outwrestle Volkanovski. ‘Money’ is one of the best-credentialed wrestlers in the UFC, a Division I All-American who’s never struggled to take his opponents down if he’s wanted to. Volkanovski clearly doesn’t have those credentials, but he’s a powerful guy and he’s easily outwrestled all of his previous opponents.
The area I’m most intrigued by is standing. Mendes developed an excellent striking game that led him to a series of violent knockouts between his two losses to Jose Aldo, but it could also be argued that the men he beat – the likes of Clay Guida and Cody McKenzie – simply weren’t the best strikers. He did do well on the feet against Aldo in their second fight, but he lost in the end and both Conor McGregor and Frankie Edgar stopped him on the feet.
Volkanovski meanwhile looked fantastic standing against Darren Elkins, destroying him with combinations, but then he hasn’t fought anyone close to the level of Mendes in terms of striking just yet. Nor does he fit the mould of McGregor or Aldo, fighters capable of hitting Mendes from range while ‘Money’ couldn’t catch them in response.
I think this may well come down to whether Volkanovski is really ready for a challenge the size of Mendes. Beating Darren Elkins is one thing and if this were Mendes coming off the McGregor and Edgar losses I’d be tempted to pick the Aussie, but Mendes looked absolutely devastating against Jury – his best showing since his 2015 knockout of Ricardo Lamas. And as he’s already 30 years old, I suspect Volkanovski is already at his ceiling – it’s just a case of finding out where his climb will stop. I think it stops here.
The Pick: Mendes via second-round TKO
#6 The Prelims: Fox Sports 1 card
Headlining the UFC’s final effort on Fox Sports 1 are Heavyweights Andrei Arlovski and Walt Harris. It’s a big step up for Harris given his biggest win to date is probably over Chase Sherman, while Arlovski is taking a step down the ladder following a disappointing loss to Shamil Abdurakhimov in June. I’m favouring Arlovski here; Harris is a good athlete but he’s never beaten anyone near to Andrei’s level and while the Abdurakhimov loss was poor, Arlovski looked decent against Tai Tuivasa just a couple of months beforehand and I suspect he’s still a much quicker striker than Harris. Arlovski is done at the top level, but I think he can still handle someone on Harris’ level. Arlovski by decision is my pick.
At Women’s Featherweight, former Bantamweight title challenger Cat Zingano steps up to 145lbs for the first time to take on former Invicta champion Megan Anderson. Anderson made her debut to a lot of hype in June but was pretty easily beaten by Holly Holm, who primarily used her grappling to wear Anderson out. Zingano has been through some tough times and appears to be at the back end of her athletic prime, but she was able to use a similar takedown-heavy gameplan to grind out a win over Marion Reneau in July. Anderson may well be able to catch Zingano with something nasty, but I suspect ‘Alpha Cat’ will use her experience to grind out a decision victory.
At Bantamweight, noted strikers Douglas Silva de Andrade and Petr Yan face off in what should be an extremely fun match. Yan has looked fantastic in his two UFC outings thus far and so this one is very tricky to pick given de Andrade was beaten by a strong kickboxer in Zubaira Tukhugov in his UFC debut, but he appeared to have made some big improvements in his fight with Marlon Vera in February. I’m struggling with this one as Yan is so unproven, but I’m leaning to the Brazilian, possibly by split decision.
Finally, the legendary BJ Penn makes another ill-advised return to the Octagon over a year after his last loss to Dennis Siver. At 40 years old it’s quite clear that ‘The Prodigy’ doesn’t have a lot left in the tank, but at least his opponent here is almost purely a grappler. Ryan Hall won TUF 22 with his BJJ skills, but he’s only fought once since, a terrible fight with Gray Maynard. Call me crazy but I’m taking Penn here; as we’ve seen with fellow veteran Diego Sanchez, even if the old durability and speed is gone, the grappling skill can still remain, and I can’t see Hall tapping out Penn. And even a shot Penn is likely to be a more rounded fighter than Hall. I’m taking Penn via decision here and hopefully, he retires for good post-fight.
#7 The Prelims: Fight Pass card
Brian Kelleher headlines the Fight Pass portion of the card against Montel Jackson in a Bantamweight tilt. Kelleher’s last fight saw him knocked out violently by John Lineker, but he also took the fight to the Brazilian, which is ill-advised at the best of times. Prior to that ‘Boom’ took out Renan Barao, and I just can’t trust Jackson – who lost to Ricky Simon in his UFC debut – to beat someone on Kelleher’s level. Kelleher via KO is my pick.
In an interesting fight at Bantamweight, Andre Ewell takes on Nathaniel Wood. Both men looked excellent in their UFC debuts and both men have similar experience levels, meaning this one is tricky to pick, but I was impressed with the grit that Ewell showed to get past Renan Barao and so I’m taking him by decision.
At Middleweight, former top ten ranked Uriah Hall takes on unbeaten newcomer Bevon Lewis fresh from a win on Dana White’s Contender Series. Hall might not have lived up to his post-TUF hype but he’s still very dangerous – he went toe-to-toe with Paulo Costa before going down in the second round of their fight, and I’m not sure I’m comfortable in taking an inexperienced newcomer over him. I’ll take Hall by TKO instead.
Finally, Welterweight veteran Siyar Bahadurzada takes on hot prospect Curtis Millender in another intriguing fight. Millender has had a hot beginning to his UFC career, beating both Thiago Alves and Max Griffin this year, while Bahadurzada is actually on a 3-fight win streak although he’s only fought once each year since 2016. I’m favouring the prospect Millender here; he’s a better striker than Bahadurzada’s last two opponents and he also knows how to use his long range. He’ll have a 6” reach advantage on Bahadurzada and I think he’ll use it to pick the Afghan apart for a decision.
