UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith - Predictions and Picks

#2 Tyron Woodley vs. Kamaru Usman

Tyron Woodley is looking for his 5th successful title defense

Okay, let’s get the controversial bit out of the way early. Colby Covington would claim he has a right to feel aggrieved about this fight, as he won the interim Welterweight title in June 2018 and since then, Tyron Woodley has defended his title against Darren Till and will now be defending against Usman rather than fighting ‘Chaos’.

However, that seems to be more on Covington than Woodley, as reports have suggested that injuries and financial demands have prevented the UFC from making a Woodley/Covington clash. That means I’ve got zero sympathy for a guy who, realistically, only got into the position he did due to his trash talk anyway.

Kamaru Usman, on the other hand, has rarely talked trash – he’s earned his title shot by beating up everyone he’s faced in the UFC. Sure, his wrestling-heavy style isn’t always that exciting – of his 10 UFC wins, he’s finished just 2 opponents – but wins against the likes of Rafael Dos Anjos, Demian Maia and Leon Edwards simply can’t be argued against.

Perhaps the most impressive thing about Usman is that really, nobody has even been able to test him inside the Octagon. Strikers like Edwards, Warlley Alves and Emil Meek simply couldn’t handle his grappling; grapplers like Maia and Dos Anjos were either beaten up on the feet or on the ground due to Usman’s phenomenal mix of athleticism and wrestling skill. He’s never really been rocked on the feet, and Dos Anjos’ kimura attempt might be the only time he’s looked in difficulty on the ground.

That’s why he’s such a fascinating test for Woodley. ‘The Chosen One’ has ruled over the Welterweight division since taking the title from Robbie Lawler back in July 2016, but while his 4 title defences have been impressive, it must be noted that he’s beaten two strikers – Stephen Thompson and Darren Till – and a grappler in Demian Maia. He’s never defended against someone who has wrestling on the level of Usman, and it’s arguable that he’s never faced someone who’s his athletic equal in his whole career.

For me, this fight likely comes down to a couple of things. First is whether Usman can back Woodley up and get his wrestling game going without eating a big counter. Woodley is a strange fighter in that it’s worryingly easy for his opponents to force him backwards – Thompson and most notably Rory MacDonald did this to great success – but if the opponent pushes it a little too much, they can walk into a huge counterpunch and those kind of shots can finish the fight in an instant.

Usman won’t be looking to back Woodley up to keep him on the end of a jab like Thompson and MacDonald did, though; more likely he’ll be attempting to close the distance, clinch with Woodley and muscle him to the ground. On the rare occasions, he’s been on his back, Woodley hasn’t looked great, and that probably fills Usman with confidence. But it’s whether he can get to that stage without being hit heavily – and if he does eat a shot, whether his chin can take it – that’s the big question mark.

Secondly, what happens if Usman can’t get Woodley down, and vice versa? We’ve seen on numerous occasions that great wrestlers often cancel each other out, and at 170lbs they don’t get much better than these two. In a pure stand-up affair though, it becomes hard to pick; Woodley isn’t the most natural kickboxer but he has devastating power in both his punches and his leg kicks, while Usman is still largely a work in progress – but judging by his Dos Anjos fight, he’s happy to put together some nasty combinations.

Both men rely on the threat of their takedown to really open up with their striking, though – and that may not be a factor here. I wouldn’t actually be surprised if we get a staring contest in fact with Usman worried about closing the distance due to Woodley’s counters, and Woodley happier to wait for an opportunity to throw said counters. Hopefully, that won’t be the case, though.

This is an incredibly hard fight to pick in my opinion, as Usman’s chin is so untested that we just don’t know what will happen if he does get cracked by Woodley. I’m actually leaning towards the challenger, though; we have seen Woodley on his back before and it wasn’t pretty. I think Usman can get inside and perhaps two or three takedowns across the fight might then be enough to win him the title due to Woodley’s relative inactivity – assuming he doesn’t land that crushing counter, of course.

The Pick: Usman via unanimous decision