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Man, 2019 is going quickly. It’s time for the UFC’s famous International Fight Week again, and unsurprisingly the biggest MMA promotion in the world has put together a pretty loaded pay-per-view card. So loaded although personally, I’d argue UFC 235 and UFC 238 were better on paper this year – that the odd decision has been made to put the show on pay-per-view in the UK, the first time that’s happened since UFC 47 way back in 2004.
The show will be headlined by arguably the promotion’s biggest draw right now in Jon Jones (if you discount the supposedly-retired Conor McGregor) and it also has a second title fight underneath as Amanda Nunes faces Holly Holm. It’s also the first time since 2013 that the UFC hasn’t supplemented their big July pay-per-view with an extra Fight Night or TUF Finale the night before – so the bonus is that all eyes should theoretically be on this one.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos.
#1 Jon Jones vs. Thiago Santos
If you ignore the various issues that have seen him stripped of the UFC Light-Heavyweight title on two occasions – a big ask, I know – this would actually be Jones’ 12th title defence, which would mean that with a win, he’d break Demetrious Johnson’s record of 11. That would be impressive however you look at it, but whether Jones can be put into the same category as ‘Mighty Mouse’ – and Georges St-Pierre – given his PED indiscretions is another thing entirely.
What is for certain, of course, is that he’s a great fighter and he’s definitely the best 205lber the sport has ever seen. Discounting his DQ loss to Matt Hamill, he’s never lost in his decade-long career. Only Alexander Gustafsson in 2013 really pushed him – and then got destroyed when the two rematched last year – and he’s never been really hurt by strikes, let alone knocked down.
He’s also proved almost invulnerable to submissions, too; only Vitor Belfort tested him there with a tight armbar, but Jones escaped and then smashed the Brazilian veteran a round or two later. So can we really expect Thiago ‘Marreta’ Santos – a man who’s only had 3 fights at 205lbs and has UFC losses to the likes of Eric Spicely and David Branch on his record – to test ‘Bones’? In all honesty, it feels doubtful.
If nothing else, I guess you’d have to give Santos a puncher’s chance. He looks good physically at 205lbs; the idea that he ever made 170lbs is now laughable but that’s where he was on TUF Brazil 2, but since then he appears to have added nothing but lean muscle to his frame. He’s always been a hard hitter but that extra size has transformed his game from being essentially a poor man’s Edson Barboza to a fearsome power puncher who’s comfortable both on the attack and on the counter.
‘Marreta’ also has some of the nastiest finishing instincts in the entire sport. We saw that when he took out Jan Blachowicz with a series of ruthless hammer fists after dropping him with a counter left hand – the win that earned him this title shot – but it was on show the most in his nasty wins at 185lbs over Anthony Smith and Jack Hermansson; both men were basically overwhelmed by sheer aggression and violence.
Against Jones, though? I’m sorry, but I just can’t see him having that much success. For all his heavy power I’m not convinced he hits any harder than Gustafsson, or Daniel Cormier, or Rashad Evans, and none of those men were able to hurt Jones. And more worryingly, Santos has always been somewhat of a glass cannon when it comes to absorbing his opponent’s offence. Jimi Manuwa had him badly hurt in their fight before going down himself, and David Branch outright knocked him out, as did Gegard Mousasi.
That doesn’t bode well for a Jones fight, as ‘Bones’ will hold his usual reach advantage (in this instance it’s 8.5”) and can crack his opponents very hard and from distance too. When you throw in the fact that he’s the best wrestler in the division too, and Santos has shown vulnerabilities on the ground in his past fights, and I just can’t see a way for the challenger to win this fight at all.
Will Jones get the finish this time, after being forced to go the full 25 minutes with Anthony Smith last time around? I think he will, mainly because it doesn’t feel like Santos is the type of opponent to retreat into his shell the moment he gets hurt. He’s a kill-or-be-killed type of fighter, and I think he’ll be more than willing to go down swinging.
The show might be exactly 6 years to the day that Chris Weidman upset Anderson Silva for the Middleweight title, but I don’t see lightning striking twice here.
The Pick: Jones via second-round TKO
#2 Amanda Nunes vs. Holly Holm
Despite some worrying rumours that she was considering retiring after her groundbreaking knockout of Cris Cyborg back in December – making her another entrant into the UFC’s club of double champions – UFC Featherweight and Bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes is finally back this weekend, defending the latter title against former champ Holly Holm, who it must be said, must have the best manager in the sport to manage to get yet another opportunity at UFC gold.
Holm hasn’t fought since June 2018’s win over Megan Anderson at 145lbs, and she hasn’t fought at 135lbs since her June 2017 win over Bethe Correia. Her record in her last 6 fights is 2-4, as well – hardly the most impressive – but to be fair to the UFC, I guess there’s no other clear-cut top contender to face Nunes right now and Holm is at least a big name.
That status was, of course, cemented in her 2015 knockout win over Ronda Rousey, but the problem with that victory was that it gave a lot of fans the wrong idea of what kind of fighter Holm is. She looked like a knockout artist in that fight, but in reality, Rousey played right into her hands with her wild, cruder striking – as did Correia, the only other UFC fighter that Holm was able to knock out.
Outside of that, ‘The Preacher’s Daughter’ has largely been a point-fighter, using her long frame to land punches and kicks from the outside, rarely hurting her opponent but usually doing enough to pick up a decision.
Nunes, on the other hand, has practically been the exact opposite. She’s not as technically proficient a striker as Holm – usually, anyway – but she’s absolutely ferocious and has lost just once in 11 fights, to a returning Cat Zingano who was practically a fighter possessed that night, and even she was almost stopped by Nunes early.
The knock on ‘The Lioness’ was always her stamina, but recently that hasn’t been an issue – she went the distance in her fight with Valentina Shevchenko and took apart Raquel Pennington over 4 rounds in their fight.
For me this one should come down to a couple of things; firstly, can Holm force Nunes to fight her fight? Shevchenko, a similar fighter to Holm (at 135lbs at least) in terms of striking style, was able to drag Nunes into what essentially became a point-fighting contest, and although Nunes came away with her title, the result could easily have gone the other way.
Holm can be beaten in that kind of fight, as Shevchenko showed, but whether Nunes has the discipline to do that over five rounds is a question mark to me, particularly as Holm has a slight reach advantage. With that said, if you look at the bigger picture, it’s Nunes who has far more ways to win this fight.
Holm’s never been knocked out, but then Nunes has unusual power for this division, as we witnessed when she sensationally knocked out Cyborg last December. She also took out Rousey in a violent fashion and became the only fighter to take out the uber-tough Pennington with strikes. Even her submission wins – Miesha Tate and Sara McMann – were badly hurt by strikes before Nunes tapped them out.
And while Holm used her ground game to beat Megan Anderson, on the ground Nunes is light years ahead of her; Holm looked like a functional wrestler at best in that fight and was dominated by Tate on the ground in their fight, while Nunes is a genuine Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with some nasty ground striking to go with it.
If Holm can force Nunes into a point-fighting exhibition then it’s anyone’s fight – and I’d almost lean towards Holm because I think her stamina is better – but for me, the momentum right now is with Nunes, and I think her sheer ferocity can overwhelm the challenger early and allow her to get Holm to the ground. And once that happens I think it’s game over.
The Pick: Nunes via second round submission
#3 Ben Askren vs. Jorge Masvidal
Given Colby Covington has now officially signed for a fight with Robbie Lawler later in the summer, there’s every chance the winner of this one ends up facing Kamaru Usman for the UFC Welterweight title in October or something like that – which would please the fans that dislike Covington, at least. To be fair though, there’s a fair argument that they’d deserve a shot over Colby anyway.
It’s been a weird road to the top for Masvidal; the former street fighter debuted in the UFC back in 2013 coming off a pretty strong run in StrikeForce, but a 5-2 record at Lightweight and a reputation as a bit of a flaky fighter who’d give rounds away through inactivity hardly suggested someone with title aspirations.
Since moving to 170lbs though, it’s been a different story. Sure, his losses to Benson Henderson and Lorenz Larkin weren’t great, showcasing the same issues with inactivity he had at 155lbs, but his wins over Jake Ellenberger and Donald Cerrone, in particular, were great, and of course, he most recently shut the lights out on Darren Till with an incredibly heavy left hand. At 34 with 16 years of professional fights behind him he’d be a surprising title challenger, but win here and he’d definitely have earned a shot.
Askren meanwhile came into the UFC with a ton of fanfare earlier this year after racking up 18 straight wins, first in Bellator and then in ONE FC. A 2008 Olympic freestyle wrestler, the book on Askren was that he was arguably the best grappler in the Welterweight division, but his striking left a lot to be desired. And we saw both on show in his debut against Robbie Lawler.
To be fair, it wasn’t that Askren’s striking looked bad against Lawler, he just never had a chance to show it at all. ‘Funky Ben’ attempted to take Lawler down and almost snaked onto his back, only to find himself brutally slammed by the former champion. Stunned, he was then met with a series of clubbing punches that practically knocked him unconscious.
Somehow though Askren hung in there, and despite being badly hurt, he managed to take Lawler down and eventually locked up a bulldog choke. Referee Herb Dean stopped the fight soon after, feeling Lawler had gone unconscious. Whether that was the case is still up in the air, but regardless, Askren had won his UFC debut.
Essentially then, this fight should come down to whether or not Masvidal can stop Askren’s takedown. If he can, then the former Bellator champion is likely in a lot of trouble as he’s nowhere near the level of striker that ‘Gamebred’ is, and while his chin looked great against Lawler, nobody can survive that amount of punishment for too long.
What worries me for Masvidal, though, is the fact that we’re only two years removed from his fight with Demian Maia. And while Masvidal had his moments in that fight, it was more punctuated by the number of times Maia managed to get him to the ground – at least once per round – and once on the ground the Brazilian largely dominated, coming close to finishing with chokes on numerous occasions.
Sure, Askren isn’t the submission artist that Maia is, but he’s a far superior wrestler who doesn’t tend to run out of steam late into fights in the same way that Maia does. And so if Masvidal couldn’t keep Maia off him for 15 minutes, I’m not sure that he’s got the ability to stop Askren from doing the same. Fighters improve, sure, but not usually to that extent over 2 years when they’re already a decade into their career, and to stop a wrestler like Askren would be unusual anyway.
Masvidal could surprise me here by catching Askren with something clean in an early rush and getting him out of there, but I don’t see it myself; ‘Gamebred’ might survive the full 15 minutes as he’s a better grappler than he’s usually given credit for, but I think he’ll be on the defensive for most of the fight and that’ll give Askren the win.
The Pick: Askren via unanimous decision
#4 Luke Rockhold vs. Jan Blachowicz
The 205lbs debut of former UFC Middleweight kingpin Rockhold has been a long time coming – he hasn’t actually fought since his February 2018 loss to Yoel Romero in fact – but we’re finally getting it this weekend. And if he can beat Blachowicz, who was on the verge of a title shot before falling to Thiago Santos in February, he shouldn’t be too far away from a big showdown with Jon Jones.
But can he get past Blachowicz? It’s a tougher fight than it might sound on paper. On paper, Rockhold is practically the perfect fighter. He’s got a tremendous striking game, making full use of a long, 77” reach with heavy kicks to the head and body as well as long punches from the outside, and on the ground, he’s phenomenal, with a top game as good as anyone in the UFC. His cardio is excellent too, as he was able to take out Chris Weidman down the stretch despite Weidman pushing a horrendous pace early on.
Unfortunately, all of that talent has also given Rockhold the penchant for being his own worst enemy. There’s no way he should ever have lost to Michael Bisping, for instance – he whitewashed the Brit in their first fight in 2014 – but he chose to leave his hands hanging by his waist in the rematch and paid the consequences.
His loss to Vitor Belfort was a little different – facing a steroid-fuelled monster, Rockhold was always going to be in trouble – but his tendency to hang his hands also led to his violent KO at the hands of Romero. It isn’t that his chin is outright weak; it’s more that he’s allowed opponents to hit him cleanly on the jaw – something that doesn’t bode well for any fighter.
Blachowicz is an interesting opponent for him because while he’s limited enough to be a relatively simple first win for Rockhold in his new division, he’s also got the tools to shut the AKA fighter down if he gives him the chance. A heavy hitter with a similar striking game to Rockhold – he loves the body kick as Ilir Latifi learned – he’s become more nuanced over the last few years, developing a ramrod jab and a stronger ground game. That was enough to win him 4 fights in a row before his loss to Santos – the first time he’d been knocked out in his career.
Where he tends to suffer, though, is on the ground. Sure, he’s gotten better there and even picked up two submission wins in the UFC during that four-fight run, but Gustafsson, Corey Anderson and Patrick Cummins all grounded him and kept him there, beating him up with simple strikes with little offence in return from the Polish fighter.
While Rockhold isn’t as good of a wrestler as those three, he’s probably better from the top than all of them, particularly if he can pass into the mounted position, and I’m honestly not sure that Blachowicz can keep him from taking him down, particularly as his clinch game is a bit of a weak area too – Jimi Manuwa outworked him from there during their first fight.
As long as Rockhold fights smartly here – as in, he doesn’t come out hanging his hands and acting too cockily – this should definitely be a winnable fight for him. If he decides to strike with Blachowicz it could be a coin flip, but if he decides to go for the clinch and look to take the Pole down, it could actually turn out to be quite one-sided. I’m willing to bet on Rockhold fighting smart this time – if he doesn’t, any chance of him climbing back up the ladder goes straight down the drain.
The Pick: Rockhold via first round submission
#5 Diego Sanchez vs. Michael Chiesa
Okay, so I’ll get it out of the way early on and say that Diego Sanchez – along with Alistair Overeem – is probably my all-time favourite fighter. I’d have maybe 5 of his fights in my 10 all-time favourites, even. But to see him on a UFC main card at aged 37 with almost 15 years of UFC experience in the bank is a huge shock, and the only thing more shocking is the fact that he’s somehow on a two-fight win streak.
‘The Nightmare’ has essentially looked finished for some time, and it’s a testament to his insane heart and will that he’s still hanging in near the top of the UFC. His struggles started back in 2012 or thereabouts when his game – which relies heavily on scrambling – became a little exposed, meaning his opponents could stop his takedown and take advantage of his overly aggressive but crude striking, but some time off from 2014 to 2015 seemed to rejuvenate him somewhat as he returned in 2016 with 2 solid wins over Jim Miller and Marcin Held.
Bad losses to Al Iaquinta and Matt Brown in 2017 seemed to usher him to a likely end, though, as his once-iron chin appeared to be well and truly cracked. But then Sanchez came back with wins over Craig White and Mickey Gall, showing that while his striking and durability are no longer there, his grappling remains incredibly formidable.
That’s why I’m actually giving him a shot here against Chiesa. Sanchez is a man whose best weight might lie in that mythical 165lbs weight class, as he’s floated between Lightweight and Welterweight for years now, and it’s been against larger 170lbers like Jake Ellenberger and Jon Fitch where he’s really struggled. Chiesa is a big dude, but he’s also fought most of his career at 155lbs, and doesn’t really fall into that category of powerful wrestlers, even if he’s a great grappler.
The fact is also that for all of Sanchez’s wear and tear, he’s never truly been outgrappled in the UFC outside of that fight with Fitch, who was a genuinely huge 170lber (and a fantastic fighter) at the time. Even noted grapplers like Held, Nick Diaz, Karo Parisyan and Paulo Thiago couldn’t handle ‘The Nightmare’ on the ground. Don’t forget this is a man who was outgrappling black belts in his younger days before he even started wearing a gi and earning BJJ belts himself.
And Chiesa is of course almost a pure grappler. Sure, he’s not a horrible striker, but he’s not a violent knockout artist like Iaquinta or Brown, the last two men to flatline Sanchez. In fact, Chiesa doesn’t actually have a KO or TKO to his name in 19 professional fights, and while he did TKO James Vick and Justin Lawrence during his TUF run, both wins came from the mount – a position he’s unlikely to find himself in on Saturday.
Sure, simply due to Sanchez’s advanced age and the amount of damage he’s taken, Chiesa should be the favourite here. After all he did look great when he submitted Carlos Condit last December. But I just can’t help but favour Sanchez in a grappling-based fight, which is what this is likely to be. I can’t see Chiesa submitting him or dominating him positionally, and even at 37, Diego just doesn’t get tired like normal fighters do.
Call me crazy but I’m going with the upset here. Chiesa has been outfoxed on the ground before – both Kevin Lee and Anthony Pettis submitted him, as did Jorge Masvidal – and while he’s undoubtedly skilled, styles make fights and this feels like the right clash for Diego. Hopefully they won’t put him against a striker next time out!
The Pick: Sanchez via unanimous decision
#6 The Prelims: ESPN card
The show will have four preliminary fights on ESPN, although one has yet to be confirmed at the time of writing this preview as Marlon Vera’s original opponent Sean O’Malley has yet to be replaced, following a positive PED test.
In the headlining spot, Gilbert Melendez returns to face young prospect Arnold Allen at 145lbs. It seems harsh to say this but Melendez almost feels like one of the biggest busts in UFC history at this point; signed to a lucrative new deal in 2014, he’s since lost 4 fights in a row and hasn’t looked anywhere close to his earlier form. Allen is a technically excellent fighter in all areas and while he isn’t flashy, under the tutelage of Firas Zahabi he could go far. For me Melendez is just miles past his prime now and unless he can turn back the clock, this should be a nice “name” victory for the Brit. Allen by decision is my pick.
At Strawweight, Claudia Gadelha faces Randa Markos in what should turn out to be an intriguing fight to watch. Gadelha hasn’t fought since a surprising loss to Nina Ansaroff last December, a loss that knocked her off her perch as arguably the 3rd or at least 4th best 115lber in the world. At her best she’s an excellent grappler with a good striking game too, but after taking a lot of punishment in fights with Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Jessica Andrade, who knows what she’s got left? Markos meanwhile is a tremendous grappler but sheer inconsistency in her performances has always held her back. She looked excellent in submitting Angela Hill in her last fight, but unfortunately I just can’t trust her against a fighter on the level of Gadelha, who I think will edge a decision.
Finally Bantamweights Alejandro Perez and Song Yadong clash with the winner perhaps moving up into the top 10. Perez has been on a surprising run over recent years; a sloppy but aggressive and naturally talented fighter coming off his TUF: Latin America win, I didn’t expect a lot from him but he’s tightened up his game in all areas recently, even if he fell to Cody Stamann due to Stamann’s powerful wrestling game. Yadong is more of a boxing-based fighter, but his sheer athleticism means he’s dangerous in all areas. I like the Chinese fighter here as I think his speed will give Perez some issues, but to see him a little out of his depth wouldn’t surprise me either. Song by decision is my pick, though.
#7 The Prelims: UFC Fight Pass card
Finally we’re getting 3 fights on UFC Fight Pass – a rarity these days – too. In the headliner, young Middleweight Edmen Shahbazyan faces Welsh brawler Jack Marshman. Marshman can definitely crack, but he’s also very limited overall and we saw in Shahbazyan’s debut win over Darren Stewart that he’s quite happy to use his grappling to get past opponents like this. It’s a dangerous fight for him because Marshman could knock him out if he screws up, but I think Shahbazyan will outwork him for a decision or late TKO.
Welterweight Ismail Naurdiev had one of the most surprisingly good UFC debuts of 2019, outpointing Michel Prazeres, who hadn’t lost in 9 fights. He’s now faced with Chance Recountre, who picked up his first UFC win in January. I was really impressed with Naurdiev’s debut, though – he showed skills and the kind of calm you can’t really teach – and I think he’ll knock Recountre out here.
And in the opener, Bantamweights Pannie Kianzad and Julia Avila face off. I don’t know all that much about Avila to be honest, but while she’s got wins over Marion Reneau and Nicco Montano – both in the early days of their careers – I worry for someone who only has 6 professional fights in her UFC debut. Kianzad isn’t the best athlete but she’s a proven fighter at this level and has far more experience, so I think she’ll outwork Avila and probably take a submission late on.
