UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos - Predictions and Picks

#2 Amanda Nunes vs. Holly Holm

Amanda Nunes currently holds two UFC titles after KO'ing Cris Cyborg last December

Despite some worrying rumours that she was considering retiring after her groundbreaking knockout of Cris Cyborg back in December – making her another entrant into the UFC’s club of double champions – UFC Featherweight and Bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes is finally back this weekend, defending the latter title against former champ Holly Holm, who it must be said, must have the best manager in the sport to manage to get yet another opportunity at UFC gold.

Holm hasn’t fought since June 2018’s win over Megan Anderson at 145lbs, and she hasn’t fought at 135lbs since her June 2017 win over Bethe Correia. Her record in her last 6 fights is 2-4, as well – hardly the most impressive – but to be fair to the UFC, I guess there’s no other clear-cut top contender to face Nunes right now and Holm is at least a big name.

That status was, of course, cemented in her 2015 knockout win over Ronda Rousey, but the problem with that victory was that it gave a lot of fans the wrong idea of what kind of fighter Holm is. She looked like a knockout artist in that fight, but in reality, Rousey played right into her hands with her wild, cruder striking – as did Correia, the only other UFC fighter that Holm was able to knock out.

Outside of that, ‘The Preacher’s Daughter’ has largely been a point-fighter, using her long frame to land punches and kicks from the outside, rarely hurting her opponent but usually doing enough to pick up a decision.

Nunes, on the other hand, has practically been the exact opposite. She’s not as technically proficient a striker as Holm – usually, anyway – but she’s absolutely ferocious and has lost just once in 11 fights, to a returning Cat Zingano who was practically a fighter possessed that night, and even she was almost stopped by Nunes early.

The knock on ‘The Lioness’ was always her stamina, but recently that hasn’t been an issue – she went the distance in her fight with Valentina Shevchenko and took apart Raquel Pennington over 4 rounds in their fight.

For me this one should come down to a couple of things; firstly, can Holm force Nunes to fight her fight? Shevchenko, a similar fighter to Holm (at 135lbs at least) in terms of striking style, was able to drag Nunes into what essentially became a point-fighting contest, and although Nunes came away with her title, the result could easily have gone the other way.

Holm can be beaten in that kind of fight, as Shevchenko showed, but whether Nunes has the discipline to do that over five rounds is a question mark to me, particularly as Holm has a slight reach advantage. With that said, if you look at the bigger picture, it’s Nunes who has far more ways to win this fight.

Holm’s never been knocked out, but then Nunes has unusual power for this division, as we witnessed when she sensationally knocked out Cyborg last December. She also took out Rousey in a violent fashion and became the only fighter to take out the uber-tough Pennington with strikes. Even her submission wins – Miesha Tate and Sara McMann – were badly hurt by strikes before Nunes tapped them out.

And while Holm used her ground game to beat Megan Anderson, on the ground Nunes is light years ahead of her; Holm looked like a functional wrestler at best in that fight and was dominated by Tate on the ground in their fight, while Nunes is a genuine Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with some nasty ground striking to go with it.

If Holm can force Nunes into a point-fighting exhibition then it’s anyone’s fight – and I’d almost lean towards Holm because I think her stamina is better – but for me, the momentum right now is with Nunes, and I think her sheer ferocity can overwhelm the challenger early and allow her to get Holm to the ground. And once that happens I think it’s game over.

The Pick: Nunes via second round submission