UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos - Predictions and Picks

#3 Ben Askren vs. Jorge Masvidal

Can Ben Askren keep Jorge Masvidal on the ground?

Given Colby Covington has now officially signed for a fight with Robbie Lawler later in the summer, there’s every chance the winner of this one ends up facing Kamaru Usman for the UFC Welterweight title in October or something like that – which would please the fans that dislike Covington, at least. To be fair though, there’s a fair argument that they’d deserve a shot over Colby anyway.

It’s been a weird road to the top for Masvidal; the former street fighter debuted in the UFC back in 2013 coming off a pretty strong run in StrikeForce, but a 5-2 record at Lightweight and a reputation as a bit of a flaky fighter who’d give rounds away through inactivity hardly suggested someone with title aspirations.

Since moving to 170lbs though, it’s been a different story. Sure, his losses to Benson Henderson and Lorenz Larkin weren’t great, showcasing the same issues with inactivity he had at 155lbs, but his wins over Jake Ellenberger and Donald Cerrone, in particular, were great, and of course, he most recently shut the lights out on Darren Till with an incredibly heavy left hand. At 34 with 16 years of professional fights behind him he’d be a surprising title challenger, but win here and he’d definitely have earned a shot.

Askren meanwhile came into the UFC with a ton of fanfare earlier this year after racking up 18 straight wins, first in Bellator and then in ONE FC. A 2008 Olympic freestyle wrestler, the book on Askren was that he was arguably the best grappler in the Welterweight division, but his striking left a lot to be desired. And we saw both on show in his debut against Robbie Lawler.

To be fair, it wasn’t that Askren’s striking looked bad against Lawler, he just never had a chance to show it at all. ‘Funky Ben’ attempted to take Lawler down and almost snaked onto his back, only to find himself brutally slammed by the former champion. Stunned, he was then met with a series of clubbing punches that practically knocked him unconscious.

Somehow though Askren hung in there, and despite being badly hurt, he managed to take Lawler down and eventually locked up a bulldog choke. Referee Herb Dean stopped the fight soon after, feeling Lawler had gone unconscious. Whether that was the case is still up in the air, but regardless, Askren had won his UFC debut.

Essentially then, this fight should come down to whether or not Masvidal can stop Askren’s takedown. If he can, then the former Bellator champion is likely in a lot of trouble as he’s nowhere near the level of striker that ‘Gamebred’ is, and while his chin looked great against Lawler, nobody can survive that amount of punishment for too long.

What worries me for Masvidal, though, is the fact that we’re only two years removed from his fight with Demian Maia. And while Masvidal had his moments in that fight, it was more punctuated by the number of times Maia managed to get him to the ground – at least once per round – and once on the ground the Brazilian largely dominated, coming close to finishing with chokes on numerous occasions.

Sure, Askren isn’t the submission artist that Maia is, but he’s a far superior wrestler who doesn’t tend to run out of steam late into fights in the same way that Maia does. And so if Masvidal couldn’t keep Maia off him for 15 minutes, I’m not sure that he’s got the ability to stop Askren from doing the same. Fighters improve, sure, but not usually to that extent over 2 years when they’re already a decade into their career, and to stop a wrestler like Askren would be unusual anyway.

Masvidal could surprise me here by catching Askren with something clean in an early rush and getting him out of there, but I don’t see it myself; ‘Gamebred’ might survive the full 15 minutes as he’s a better grappler than he’s usually given credit for, but I think he’ll be on the defensive for most of the fight and that’ll give Askren the win.

The Pick: Askren via unanimous decision