UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar - Predictions and Picks

#4 Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Arman Tsarukyan

Can Olivier Aubin-Mercier outgrapple Arman Tsarukyan?

It’s very hard to believe, but Aubin-Mercier is 30 years old now and has been in the UFC for five years! At what point do we stop calling ‘The Canadian Gangster’ a prospect? The answer to that question is around now, as I’d probably suggest that the version of Aubin-Mercier we’re getting now is the best one we’ll see.

At his best, he’s a genuinely excellent fighter; a stifling grappler with a tight ground game based around control and submissions – particularly the rear-naked choke – he’s also come on leaps and bounds with his striking over the years too.

We saw him picked apart by Chad Laprise in his UFC debut in 2014, but he’s now a technically sound kickboxer with some power too – as we saw when he TKO’d Evan Dunham last year.

The issues that the Canadian has had, unfortunately, have stemmed when he’s been faced with fighters who are slightly better than him in the grappling department, whether that’s down to skill or superior athleticism.

Gilbert Burns and Diego Ferreira – two high-level BJJ black belts – were always tough matches for him, but Alexander Hernandez essentially beat Aubin-Mercier by better wrestling and more athleticism.

Can Tsarukyan do that this weekend? The Russian-Armenian looks like a good fighter on paper and in highlight reels; he’s 13-2 with finishes in all areas; spinning back kicks and head kicks on the feet and stuff like anaconda chokes on the ground.

He also fought very well in a losing effort against Islam Makhachev in his UFC debut, and although it was a clear loss, he gave the Dagestani problems both on his feet and on the ground.

For me, this fight is all about where the ceiling lies for Tsarukyan. There’s no shame in a loss to Makhachev as I feel that he’ll probably turn out to be a top 10 if not top 5 fighter at 155lbs when all is said and done. If Tsarukyan turns out to be just underneath that level, well, he should be able to do what Hernandez did to Aubin-Mercier and outwork him in all areas for either a decision or a late finish.

If that isn’t the case though, I think this one will likely go the same way as Aubin-Mercier’s fights with Drew Dober and Thibault Gouti went; sure, he might be slightly outgunned standing, but on the ground, he might have the right mix of skill and power to dominate his opponent.

I’m going with Aubin-Mercier here but only because he’s more proven at this level and there are too many questions around Tsarukyan. To see the Russian-Armenian pick up a win wouldn’t shock me at all, though.

The Pick: Aubin-Mercier via unanimous decision