UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar - Predictions and Picks

#5 Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Krzysztof Jotko

Krzysztof Jotko was once considered a dark horse contender at 185lbs

Like the co-main event, this one feels like a Canadian fighter probably out of his depth against a superior opponent. Barriault made his UFC debut on the last card in Canada in May, and despite some hopes that his brick-fisted ways would lead him to a violent win, he was instead outgrappled to a comfortable decision loss at the hands of Andrew Sanchez.

Sure, Barriault did have some high points in the fight; he was able to stuff Sanchez’s takedown in the second round and unloaded on him with some big strikes, but couldn’t put him away and that was largely that. The issue he’s probably likely to have here? Jotko is a similar fighter to Sanchez, but I’d argue he’s largely better.

Maybe you’d give Sanchez the advantage in terms of sheer wrestling, but I’d say Jotko is a superior grappler and more to the point, he’s not a lay-and-pray artist either. As Alen Amedovski found out in April, Jotko’s top game is absolutely vicious, as he’s happy to hold an opponent down and beat them relentlessly with elbows and punches.

The Pole basically did the same thing to Thales Leites – an excellent grappler in his own right – when they fought, and while he recently went on a 3-fight skid, he was arguably winning two of those fights – against Uriah Hall and Brad Tavares – before going down to strikes late on. Jotko isn’t a bad striker by any means – he’s knocked out opponents in the past himself – but he does leave himself open at times.

That means Barriault should be in with a shout at least here; if he can avoid taking a real beatdown from Jotko on the ground in the early going, then if he can draw the Pole into a shootout standing or manage to unload a flurry on him, then you never know – Jotko may well fold under the pressure. It’s not exactly an easy ask, though; there’s a reason Jotko was once considered a dark horse contender at 185lbs, after all.

Based on the Sanchez fight I’m not sure that Barriault can stop Jotko from closing the distance on him here, and if the Pole can make it to the clinch comfortably then I think he can get takedowns from there based on hurting him from close range, and on the ground this should be a bit of a wash. Barriault surprising everyone with a big knockout isn’t impossible, but I don’t see it myself.

The Pick: Jotko via second-round submission