UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic II - Predictions and Picks

#2 Nate Diaz vs. Anthony Pettis

After 3 years away from the Octagon, Nate Diaz is finally back in action

Well, it’s been a long time coming but UFC 241 should see the return of Nate Diaz from a self-imposed exile of almost three years. Last time we saw him, his stock couldn’t have been much higher, as he choked out Conor McGregor to begin 2016 and while he lost the rematch, the fight was razor-close and was the consensus Fight of the Year.

But of course, the Diaz brothers have always marched to the tune of their own band and for reasons largely known only to Nate himself, he’s chosen to sit out since then, apparently waiting for a “money fight” that’s just never arrived. So why’s he back now? I guess the money he earned from the McGregor fights has dried up. Who knows with Diaz?

At any rate, assuming this fight actually takes place – again, with Diaz the only thing that’s for sure is, in the words of wrestling legend Sting, nothing’s for sure – it should be a lot of fun. It’s actually fascinating because it’s a fight Diaz was demanding back in 2013, when Pettis was the UFC Lightweight champ.

Of course, a lot has changed since then; Anthony Pettis lost his title to Rafael Dos Anjos and went on a massive slide, losing 3 straight before struggling through an ill-advised move to 145lbs. 2018 was better for him – he moved back to 155lbs, beat Michael Chiesa and put on a phenomenal fight in a losing effort to Tony Ferguson – and in 2019 he’s surprisingly moved to 170lbs.

Giving up a lot of size against Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson in March, it was expected that Pettis would struggle. And he did, for a round or two at least, before he uncorked an all-time great knockout, stiffening ‘Wonderboy’ up with a superman punch with just moments remaining in the second round. So how does he match up with Diaz?

For me this comes down to how much Diaz actually wants to fight. If we get the motivated Diaz that fought McGregor in 2016, then I think he’s a really bad match for Pettis and he should win with surprising ease. If we get the sloppy, disinterested Diaz from his 2014 fight with Rafael Dos Anjos, though? I think ‘Showtime’ can definitely pick him apart.

Diaz has basically been the same fighter from the moment he set foot into the Octagon back in 2007. He’s an excellent boxer with great timing and a brilliant knack of knowing exactly when to turn up the heat on his opponents. One moment he’ll be going for low-power, high-volume strikes – the notorious ‘Stockton Slap’ – and then suddenly he’ll really go to town with combinations capable of ending his opponent’s night.

On the ground he’s also a fantastic grappler, a high-level BJJ black belt who can catch nasty submissions – particularly chokes – from all kinds of areas. And his cardio is tremendous too.

But he’s got some major weaknesses. If an opponent refuses to be sucked into his game, he can be picked apart by a better kickboxer, particularly one willing to kick him in the legs and body.

And better wrestlers have always traditionally succeeded against him too. Like his brother, he’s often too willing to give up a takedown and attempt to work off his back – a consistent turn-off for judges.

The issue for Pettis is that he just doesn’t fit the bill as far as the type of fighter who can beat Diaz goes. He’s a great kicker, sure, but leg kicks have never truly been his forte and while he does have incredible body kicks, he’s also going to be at a big disadvantage when it comes to reach in this one. Diaz is a more natural 155lber, but he’s also got the same praying mantis build that gave ‘Showtime’ issues against Thompson.

That means he’s going to have to step inside Diaz’s reach to hurt him, and that puts him right in the firing line. Throw in the fact that he’s not a great offensive wrestler and he’s shown cardio issues for years now, and it feels like a recipe for disaster. It’s very easy to see Diaz abusing a tired Pettis with boxing combinations before wrapping him up in a guillotine, for instance.

But of course, that all depends on how Diaz comes into this fight both mentally and physically – and whether the years on the shelf and the years of taking damage beforehand have affected him. At 34 he’s probably not in his athletic prime anymore and while he was never an explosive fighter, it wouldn’t be a shocker to see that great cardio losing a step or two.

But in the end, we just won’t know what kind of Diaz we’re getting until he steps into the Octagon, and with that in mind I’ve got to pick based on how I think the styles of the two mesh. So I’m going with Stockton’s favourite son to beat Pettis up down the strait before submitting him. Will you really be surprised?

The Pick: Diaz via third-round submission