UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic II - Predictions and Picks

#3 Yoel Romero vs. Paulo Costa

Paulo Costa is making a huge step up in competition to face Yoel Romero

It feels like the UFC has been trying to match up Middleweight monsters Paulo Costa and Yoel Romero for ages now – to the point where neither man has fought since last summer. Romero apparently had some nagging injuries, Costa reportedly got busted by USADA for using an IV; basically, this fight has suffered a lot of delays.

Thankfully though, the UFC have finally delivered the fight everyone’s been looking forward to. MMA fans are notoriously against pro-wrestling gimmicks, but realistically the main reason that everyone’s been salivating over this one is the insane physiques that these two men possess. Basically, it’s Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem at Middleweight, if you get my gist.

Of the two, Romero is far more proven at the top level. Sure, he came up short in two title fights against Robert Whittaker, but it’s not like he should be ashamed of his performance in either fight. Both were incredible wars that saw both men take ludicrous amounts of damage, and in all honesty, both decisions could’ve been awarded to Romero on another day, particularly the second fight at UFC 225.

The Cuban is simply one of the greatest athletes to ever compete in MMA; an Olympic silver medallist in freestyle wrestling, Romero is naturally one of the best takedown artists in the division, but he’s also become one of the most dangerous strikers too, carrying KO power in everything he throws.

And all that explosive athleticism means he’s able to strike when opponents least expect it too – witness his flying knee KO of Chris Weidman, or the way he suddenly turned the lights out on Luke Rockhold in 2018.

As far as weaknesses go, it’s hard to find them. Perhaps the only one that really stands out is his tendency to strike in bursts; Romero will happily circle and do very little for long swathes of time before suddenly exploding into action, and so if an opponent can capitalise on those slowdowns and avoid taking big damage, I guess he’s beatable.

Costa meanwhile is not an athlete on the level of Romero, but he’s looked no less dangerous. With a huge, muscular frame at 185lbs, he fights like the ‘Ubereem’ version of Alistair Overeem, all power punches, kicks and knees from distance and from close range. He appears to be so confident in his own striking power that he’ll basically walk his opponents down until he gets them cornered, and from there he attacks until they’re done for.

‘The Eraser’ doesn’t have great striking defence – Uriah Hall caught him cleanly a few times before succumbing due to his own lack of durability – but thus far that hasn’t mattered too much.

We also haven’t seen a lot of him on the ground, but long-time viewers will remember his stint on TUF Brazil 3, and back then he was known more as a ground specialist, so he’s clearly got a strong Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game.

A Costa win would be better for the UFC and the division as a whole; he’d be a fresh contender to add to the mix and Sean Shelby could easily put him against the Whittaker/Israel Adesanya winner in a hell of a title fight.

But in all honesty, I find it hard to see him winning this one, assuming Romero – who is inexplicably now 42 years old – hasn’t fallen off a cliff physically.

Romero won’t be easily corralled like Costa’s earlier opponents and more to the point I just can’t see him wilting like the Brazilian’s other victims either; he took insane damage from Whittaker and survived and also came back from the dead to take out Tim Kennedy back in 2014. And if Costa clinches with him, it’s hard to see him having success against an Olympic silver medallist.

Throw in the fact that Costa’s equally likely to run out of gas as the Cuban is, and I can see a situation where Romero simply manages to avoid or absorb everything Costa throws early before suddenly exploding into life and destroying the Brazilian with a rush of insane violence.

Not only does this feel like too big of a step up for ‘The Eraser’, but I also see Romero as perhaps the worst match for him at the top of the division too.

The Pick: Romero via second-round TKO