UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz - Predictions and Picks

#3 Stephen Thompson vs. Vicente Luque

Can Stephen Thompson pick apart Vicente Luque?

Prior to 2019 it was largely rare for the UFC to match a fighter coming off a loss with a fighter coming off a win, particularly if the latter was on a long winning streak. That’s not the case anymore, and this fight is the perfect example of that. Thompson was last seen in a violent KO loss to Anthony Pettis, while Luque is riding a six-fight win streak and is 10-2 in the UFC overall.

That doesn’t really matter, though. Basically, this is the big step up that Luque needs to see if he can really lock horns with the elite at 170lbs. For me, it’s a scarily tricky fight for the Brazilian. The shine that was once on ‘Wonderboy’ is now gone thanks to his losses to Tyron Woodley, Darren Till and Pettis, but he’s still a pinpoint accurate striker who easily picked apart Jorge Masvidal when they fought and has given problems to everyone he’s faced.

I’m giving Luque a chance here though for a number of reasons. Firstly, while Thompson has proven tricky to take down during his UFC career, Woodley showed that if you can get him down, he doesn’t exactly have a lot from his back. Luque obviously isn’t close to being as good a wrestler as Woodley, but he’s certainly excellent from the top, particularly with his chokes.

Secondly, Thompson has plenty of knockouts on his ledger, but they’ve tended to come against plodding strikers like Johny Hendricks and Jake Ellenberger, men who didn’t really understand the threat that ‘Wonderboy’ posed. He’s not necessarily a concussive striker, which means someone with the power of Luque will always be in the fight to an extent.

And not only does Luque have power, he’s also one of the most ruthless finishers in MMA today; of his 10 UFC wins, just one has gone the distance – and that fight with Mike Perry could’ve ended on numerous occasion had Perry been less tough. If he puts Thompson down as Till or Woodley did, then this fight is most likely going to be closed out very quickly.

That’s a big if, though, and personally – unless Thompson has really lost a step following that Pettis KO – I can’t see it. Luque is definitely a great striker but he’s also not the fastest fighter in the 170lbs division and I just don’t think he has the striking nuances to land cleanly on a guy like Thompson. Of the other fighters that did, Woodley is scarily quick, Till was surprisingly adept at a point-fighting style and Pettis is Pettis – one of the most unpredictable and explosive men in the sport.

Luque meanwhile is much closer to someone like Masvidal, Patrick Cote or even Robert Whittaker; much more straightforward in his attacks, even in his takedowns, and I think that plays into Thompson’s hands here. This one may garner boos as Luque’s usual aggressive style is tamed, but at the end of the day I see ‘Wonderboy’ with his hand raised.

The Pick: Thompson via unanimous decision