UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington - Predictions and Picks

#2 Max Holloway vs. Alexander Volkanovski

Alexander Volkanovski stunned Jose Aldo in his last fight

The second title fight on UFC 245 could easily have headlined any other big pay-per-view, as Max Holloway will be looking to defend his Featherweight title for the fourth time against an undefeated challenger in Australia’s Alexander Volkanovski.

Both men have been on fantastic form; Holloway showed no issues stemming from his defeat at 155lbs to Dustin Poirier when he easily jabbed his way to a clear-cut decision over veteran Frankie Edgar in July, while Volkanovski stunned everyone by heading to Brazil to outpoint former champ Jose Aldo in May.

For me this fight comes down to something pretty simple: can Volkanovski get inside the range of Holloway and punish him with his heavy combinations? It’s a fascinating question, because according to records, despite giving up 5 inches in height, Volkanovski actually has a longer reach than Holloway – 71.5” to the champion’s 69”.

However, it’s not like ‘Blessed’ is simply all about using his reach. Holloway is a master of range in every possible way, as he primarily uses his footwork to open up on his opponents from angles that they may not expect. More worryingly for anyone looking to dethrone him, he’s also blessed – no pun intended – with a preternatural tendency to know exactly when to turn up the heat on his opponent, as we saw when he predicted his fourth round stoppage of Brian Ortega a year ago.

Add in the fact that his chin is insanely tough – he’s more than willing to take a hard shot and has never been stopped by strikes despite facing the likes of Poirier, Aldo and Conor McGregor – and the Hawaiian is an incredibly tricky opponent to beat.

To win this fight I feel like Volkanovski needs to get into Holloway’s face from the off; regardless of his reach advantage he can’t afford to fight from distance against a man with the movement and range work of ‘Blessed’. If the Aussie can get inside and rough Holloway up in the clinch – and look to use his somewhat underrated wrestling game to get the Hawaiian to the ground – then he’s got a shot. However, it’s just hard to see him forcing Holloway onto his back foot for the whole fight, and even if he can get the Hawaiian down, Holloway has a more than capable grappling game too.

Overall I just feel like Volkanovski is too much like Edgar for Holloway to struggle against; Edgar is perhaps a better wrestler while ‘Alexander the Great’ is a more nuanced striker who hits harder, but he’s still a shorter fighter attempting to get into range against a man who is the absolute best at finding angles to unload heavy combinations on his opponents without slowing down at all.

In conclusion, if the same Holloway we saw against Edgar and Ortega shows up – and the cumulative damage hasn’t started to wear on him – then I can’t see Volkanovski winning this fight, and I expect to see him beaten up by combinations until he either wilts, or loses a decision.

The Pick: Holloway via unanimous decision