UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero - Predictions and Picks

#4 Li Jingliang vs. Neil Magny

Can Li Jingliang continue his winning ways against Neil Magny?

This Welterweight clash is an interesting one as it features a pair of fighters who are somewhat similar in that they have decent skills in all areas and have parlayed those skills into plenty of UFC success, but their lack of real specialist talents in any one area has held them back somewhat, particularly in the case of Magny, whose career has followed a simple pattern for years; if he’s against an all-rounder he’ll probably win, if he’s faced with a specialist he’ll probably lose.

Thankfully for Magny, ‘The Leech’ isn’t necessarily a specialist. In fact, it’s hard at this stage to get a handle on where exactly he thrives best – and that’s a compliment. Initially, he appeared to be a stifling grappler – hence that ‘Leech’ nickname – but over the years the Chinese star has developed his striking hugely, to the point where we’ve seen him win by KO or TKO 5 times since 2016.

He’s not the most technical striker, but Li packs a ton of power is quite willing to exchange from the pocket and has a solid chin too. Where does he struggle? Well, his only recent loss – to Jake Matthews at UFC 221 – came largely from the fact that the Aussie was able to ground him and appeared to be the stronger fighter, something that Li probably wasn’t used to feeling.

So can Magny take advantage of that apparent weakness? I’m not so sure. The TUF veteran does have a lot of wins over fighters that you’d consider stronger, superior athletes – Kelvin Gastelum, Erick Silva, Hector Lombard, and Alex Garcia, for instance – but those fights were all largely comeback wins for Magny, who took somewhat of a beating early on before turning the tables on a tired foe late on.

More worryingly for the TUF veteran, he’s taken a lot of damage over the years and was last seen taking a beating for the ages at the hands of Santiago Ponzinibbio, who mercifully TKO’d him in the 5th round. And we haven’t seen him since – an inactive spell of well over a year, the biggest in his UFC career.

Add in the fact that Li hasn’t shown a tendency to gas out in his recent fights - his last two wins, in fact, saw him TKO his opponent in the third round – and I think Magny’s in trouble here. Could he outwork the Chinese fighter down the stretch? Perhaps, but I’m willing to bet that a violent rush from Li midway through the fight can get him out of there.

The Pick: Li via second-round TKO