UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero - Predictions and Picks

#5 Alex Oliveira vs. Max Griffin

Alex Oliveira has become one of the UFC's most reliable action fighters

This fight could well turn out to be a ‘loser leaves town’ match, although due to the exciting nature of both men, I’d hope that the UFC doesn’t think of it that way. Oliveira – the Brazilian ‘Cowboy’ – has been one of the most reliable action fighters on the whole roster since his debut in 2015, and although he’s on a three-fight losing streak, he’s 9-6 in the UFC overall and his last fight was a controversial decision loss to Nicolas Dalby.

Griffin meanwhile rose to prominence with a win over Mike Perry in 2018 but lost a lot of his luster with defeats at the hands of Curtis Millender, Thiago Alves, and Alex Morono, with only a win over Zelim Imadaev keeping him afloat.

Both men will be likely to look to strike in this fight; ‘Max Pain’ is a striker by nature, with seven of his 15 wins coming by knockout, and his best UFC showing – the win over Perry – coming due to his excellent ability to dart in and land strikes before dodging Perry’s wild swings back. Oliveira, on the other hand, is a tremendous grappler, but plenty of times before we’ve seen him drawn into brawls instead.

The issue for Griffin, I feel, is that he’s never really beaten a genuinely technical striker in the UFC; Perry at that point was far cruder than he is now and tended to swing nothing but haymakers, while Imadaev and Erick Montano aren’t kickboxers by trade. And while nobody’s going to mistake Oliveira for Israel Adesanya, he’s definitely a solid technical Muay Thai fighter, able to throw heavy leg kicks and perfectly timed punches with a lot of power.

The main thing that makes me lean towards ‘Cowboy’ here though is the fact that with three losses in a row, he’ll have his back to the wall. That means that he’s more likely to be willing to grapple, and when you’re dealing with a guy who submitted Carlos Condit, Tim Means and KJ Noons you know you’re up against someone legit.

I’d expect these guys to come out and trade-off early on, but if Griffin begins to get the better of things, I’d expect Oliveira to change things up to look for a takedown – and probably work ‘Max Pain’ over on the ground before latching onto a submission.

The Pick: Oliveira via second-round submission