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The UFC puts on its latest offering this Saturday in the form of UFC Fight Night 140 from Buenos Aires, Argentina. This will be the third South American country the MMA’s biggest promotion has visited, following plenty of trips to Brazil and a lone show in Chile earlier in 2018.
In terms of name value, it’s a pretty low-level card – Dave Meltzer has already suggested that the show might break the UFC’s record for the lowest TV rating – but due to the presence of guaranteed action fighters like Santiago Ponzinibbio, Cynthia Calvillo, Khalil Rountree and Guido Cannetti, it might yet score high in terms of entertainment value.
Here are the predicted outcomes for the UFC’s first visit to Argentina.
#1 Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Neil Magny
It came as no surprise to see Ponzinibbio booked in the main event of this show; not only is he a title contender at 170lbs, but he’s also by far the best MMA fighter ever produced by Argentina, despite him being based in Brazil for long swathes of his career. The crowd will be hugely behind ‘Gente Boa’ on Saturday and that’ll make for a fun atmosphere.
Opponent Magny was initially pegged to face off with Alex Oliveira at September’s Fight Night 137, but was moved to this card to face Ponzinibbio instead, and it’s a move that made sense – both Magny and Ponzinibbio currently sit in the UFC’s top ten at Welterweight; Magny at #8, Ponzinibbio at #10, meaning the winner instantly vaults into the title picture.
This is somewhat of a tough fight to call as there’s an argument to be made for both men winning. Ponzinibbio would appear to have the advantages in speed, athleticism and punching power; he has knockout wins over Gunnar Nelson and Court McGee and easily picked apart a heavy hitter in the form of Mike Perry last year while somehow managing to look comfortable trading in the pocket too.
In the form of Magny though, he’s faced with two issues .Firstly, Magny has a remarkable reach for a 170lber – 80”, which gives him a 7” advantage over the Argentine – and he knows exactly how to use it, as his jab-heavy wins over Gasan Umalatov and Erick Silva showed. He’s also got an excellent gas tank and can push a torrid pace, while we’ve seen Ponzinibbio wilt late on before, particularly in his 2013 fight with Ryan LaFlare.
Both men prefer to strike, but for all his reputation as a wild, exciting brawler, Ponzinibbio is a smarter fighter than he’s often given credit for. He may well have picked up on the fact that Magny’s defensive wrestling has often looked poor and while he’s happy to attack off his back, it’s hard to win rounds that way. To see ‘The Ponz’ shooting for some takedowns wouldn’t be a shocker, then.
Overall I feel like Ponzinibbio has more ways to victory here; if the two trade, the Argentine hits harder and has a better chin, and he’s the more nuanced striker too despite Magny’s reach. You could argue that on the ground, the fight could be a wash, but it’s far more likely that it’ll be Ponzinibbio on top if the fight does go down.
Expect Magny to give Ponzinibbio some issues early on with his reach and striking style, but I see Ponzinibbio making the correct adjustments and sending his fans home happy later down the stretch.
The Pick: Ponzinibbio via third round TKO
#2 Darren Elkins vs. Ricardo Lamas
A pair of perennial contenders at 145lbs – Lamas fought for the title against Jose Aldo in 2014 – both Lamas and Elkins might be on the downswing of their UFC careers now following losses to some younger talent, and that means that both men will have their backs against the wall here as they are both craving a big win to get back on track.
Both men have similar styles – relying on a strong wrestling background and a solid if rudimentary striking game to grind their opponent down. Lamas has more finishes on his record, but overall they’re cut from the same cloth.
The fight will likely come down to two areas; whether Lamas proves to be a stronger grappler than Elkins, and whether Lamas, after his losses to Josh Emmett and Mirsad Bektic, can still absorb the same kind of punishment he was once able to.
Elkins has become renowned for taking insane amounts of punishment – hence his nickname ‘The Damage’ – and it doesn’t appear that his chin is shot just yet as he has only been stopped once in his UFC career, by the hard-hitting Chad Mendes back in 2013. Even if Lamas finds some success early, he may well find it difficult to continue to beat on an opponent who simply won’t go away.
It is notable however that all of Elkins’ UFC losses have come against fighters who were capable of outgrappling him rather than trying to put him away with strikes – Hacran Dias, Jeremy Stephens and Alexander Volkanovski all had success taking Elkins down – and I believe that Lamas, with his powerful wrestling, could replicate that gameplan.
Elkins can’t be counted out due to his toughness and likely superior cardio but in a match of mirror images, I’m favouring the slightly superior athlete in Lamas to be able to grind Elkins down for a likely close decision.
The Pick: Lamas via split decision
#3 Khalil Rountree vs. Johnny Walker
Once considered one of the best prospects in the world at 205lbs, his brief UFC run has shown that Khalil Rountree has a somewhat low ceiling – he hits incredibly hard and has the kickboxing game to take out anyone, but his ground game is incredibly porous, as his losses to Andrew Sanchez and Tyson Pedro proved.
Thankfully for ‘The War Horse’, he’s faced with an opponent who’s much more likely to stand and trade off with him than he is to shoot an early double leg. Brazilian newcomer Johnny Walker – a winner on the Brazilian version of Dana White’s Contender Series – comes in with a 14-3 record and a highly intimidating look. Of his 14 wins, 11 of them have come by KO or TKO.
On the flip side of this, however, Walker has also been stopped by strikes twice before. His fight on the Contender Series showed why – he’s a man completely unafraid to trade huge strikes, and as his record shows, more often than not he comes out on top.
Quite how a Brazilian fighter ends up with a name like Johnny Walker is a question for another day, but I don’t think his cool name will be enough to save him on Saturday. Rountree looks like the faster, harder-hitting fighter and there’s little doubt that Walker will give him the opportunity to land the kind of shot that he used to KO world-class kickboxer Gokhan Saki in July.
Expect fireworks – this is my pick for Fight of the Night – but I also don’t expect it to go very long and I think Walker leaves the cage unconscious, even if he likely develops into a fan favourite later down the line.
The Pick: Rountree via first round KO
#4 Cezar Ferreira vs. Ian Heinisch
Once considered a classic glass cannon due to his flashy striking game being unable to hide an extremely weak chin, Vitor Belfort protégé Cezar ‘Mutante’ Ferreira has now followed a similar path to Heavyweight contender Alistair Overeem; he’s cut down more of his risky offense to become a more economic, cautious fighter, and it’s worked for him – he hasn’t been finished now since an ill-advised cut to 170lbs in 2015.
Initially pegged to fight British prospect Tom Breese here, he’s instead faced with a late replacement in Ian Heinisch, another veteran of Dana White’s Contender Series. At 11-1, Heinisch brings in a solid record that he’s put together using a solid wrestling game to compliment some heavy striking.
This is the kind of game that’s given ‘Mutante’ some problems in the past, but it’s also a worrying match for Heinisch for a few reasons. Firstly, the best grappler he’s faced thus far – Markus Perez – was able to coax a tapout from him. And secondly, he’s rather small for 185lbs, standing at 5’11”, while Ferreira is an absolute physical freak, huge and ripped at the weight.
Essentially, I have doubts that Heinisch can keep ‘Mutante’ from taking him down, and from the top Ferreira has some excellent jiu-jitsu, as evidenced by his arm triangle wins over Karl Roberson and Jack Hermansson.
Heinisch may be able to catch Ferreira with a big strike and stun him early, but unless it’s a one-hit KO I’m not convinced he can stay off his back, and if ‘Mutante’ takes him down, he’s likely doomed. Throw in a likely questionable gas tank due to the late notice, and this looks like Ferreira’s fight to lose.
The Pick: Ferreira via second round submission
#5 Guido Cannetti vs. Marlon Vera
It’s been four years since the first season of The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America and yet a lot of the cast are still around and kicking on the UFC’s roster despite not breaking into title contention. That’s because all of them to a man fight with reckless abandon – including these two – and so I’m expecting an exciting fight here.
Argentina’s Cannetti went into hostile territory in May to defeat Chilean fighter Diego Rivas in his home country, but now he defends his own patch against Ecuador’s Vera, who has shown himself to be dangerous in all areas if slightly incapable of stepping up to the level of being a genuine contender.
Both men are similar fighters – they’re massively aggressive and will hunt for the finish on the feet and on the ground – but I give the advantage to Vera, primarily due to his superior experience. Cannetti has just 4 UFC fights to his name while Vera has 9, and the Ecuadorian has been in with legitimate talent like John Lineker, Brad Pickett and Douglas Silva de Andrade.
Experience isn’t everything of course, but Cannetti’s wild aggression won’t offer Vera anything he hasn’t seen before, and if anything will likely play into the hands of ‘Chito’. To see Cannetti have some early success with his kickboxing wouldn’t surprise me, but I think he’ll get too aggressive for his own good and leave himself open to a submission.
The Pick: Vera via second round submission
#6 Cynthia Calvillo vs. Poliana Botelho
Compared in some circles to a female version of the Diaz brothers, Calvillo made some waves in the UFC in 2017 by winning three straight fights using her combination-based striking and a nasty ground game. Submissions of Amanda Cooper and Pearl Gonzalez were followed by a tough win over Joanne Calderwood, but a lopsided loss to former champion Carla Esparza was enough to knock her out of title contention for the time being.
A failed test for marijuana has left her on the sidelines since, but she returns here to face Brazilian Botelho, a fellow prospect who looked very impressive in taking out Syuri Kondo with strikes back in May. Botelho is currently 7-1, although she hasn’t fought opposition nearly as tough as the women Calvillo has faced.
Calvillo could well turn out to be more of a female Jason Knight than a female Diaz brother – Knight has shown himself to have distinct problems with defense and he’s too willing to fight from his back – but I don’t think this is the fight to expose that.
More likely, Calvillo will have just enough of an advantage in all areas to be able to wear the Brazilian down. The Team Alpha Male product seems to be a better athlete than her Brazilian counterpart, and I think the pace that she’s been known to push, particularly on the feet, could be the key to opening Botelho up for a takedown and then a submission, or at least grappling dominance.
The Pick: Calvillo via unanimous decision
#7 The Prelims: Fox Sports 1 card
The featured prelim of the night sees a battle of grinders in the form of Brazil’s Michel Prazeres taking on Poland’s Bartosz Fabinski. Both men have become best known for using powerful top games to grind out seemingly tougher opponents, but they’ve also earned the reputation for being dull fighters in the process. Despite Prazeres having the better wins, I’m going with the upset here; Fabinski will be the biggest man Prazeres has faced yet, and the Brazilian has gotten used to bullying far smaller 155lbers around. I feel that Fabinski could use Prazeres’ own style against him and grind out a likely yawn-inducing decision.
In what could be one of the last matches to take place in the Flyweight division, Brazil’s Alexandre Pantoja faces Japanese grappler Ulka Sasaki in a match that’s likely to hit the ground. Despite Sasaki’s huge reach and length for 125lbs, Pantoja should be too powerful for him and I can see him using top control to take a decision.
Austin Arnett will be making a surprising return to the UFC after showing very little in his first two fights, while opponent Humberto Bandenay is looking to rebound from a surprising slam knockout loss to Gabriel Benitez in May. Bandenay might be young but the Peruvian is an explosive athlete with a lot of experience, and I think he can win this one by knockout.
Finally TUF: Latin America veteran Hector Aldana takes on a late replacement in the form of Argentina’s Laureano Staropoli in a likely brawl. Footage on Staropoli is sparse and while Aldana hasn’t shown much in his own UFC career, I can’t pick a largely unknown newcomer in good conscience, so I’ll take the Mexican by KO.
#8 The Prelims: Fight Pass card
The feature bout on Fight Pass sees Devin Powell, a product of Dana White’s Contender Series, taking on newcomer Jesus Pinedo, a Peruvian veteran of the South American regional scene. Powell’s defense is essentially non-existent, but he’s tough and pushes a torrid pace and that could be enough to take him past Pinedo, who’s taking the fight on short notice and may suffer the infamous ‘Octagon Shock’. Powell by decision is the pick.
Finally, Nad Narimani, an English veteran who won his UFC debut in May, takes on a late replacement in the form of Brazil’s Anderson dos Santos. This looks like a bad fight for the Brazilian, particularly as he’s a natural 135lber fighting at 145lbs against a powerful wrestler in Narimani. Dos Santos has a lot of experience and could make a name for himself at 135lbs, but I expect him to lose a decision on Saturday.
