UFC Fight Night 142: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa - Predictions and Picks

#2 Mark Hunt vs. Justin Willis

Mark Hunt will likely fight in the UFC for the final time against Justin Willis

Like the main event, this fight features a longtime title contender on the downswing of his career against a hot up-and-comer looking for a breakout victory. Recent reports suggest that this fight will mark the end of Hunt’s 8 year career with the UFC, as after this – his 18th Octagon appearance – he’ll be out of contract and doesn’t intend to re-sign with the promotion – hardly a shock given he’s currently embroiled in a lawsuit against them.

Legal matters aside, it’s likely that the end is nigh for Hunt anyway. He still possesses his excellent striking game and unbelievable knockout power, but it’s now well over two years since his last walk-off knockout – a win over Frank Mir – and recently he’s shown signs that his speed and famous durability are finally beginning to fade.

‘The Super Samoan’ hurt Curtis Blaydes early in their February fight but was then taken down easily and took a massive beating on the ground, and in September, he was stunned by punches from Aleksei Oleinik – not a noted striker – and then submitted when the fight hit the ground. At 44 years old, it’s hardly a surprise that the veteran is no longer the fighter he was in his prime.

All of this bodes well for Willis, who could easily be described as being a larger, not quite as skilled version of Daniel Cormier. The two men share a fire hydrant-esque physique, the difference being Willis cuts weight to make the 265lbs Heavyweight limit. And like his AKA teammate, Willis uses a combination of a powerful wrestling game and a surprisingly sharp striking repertoire to win his fights.

Thus far ‘Big Pretty’ is 3-0 in the UFC, but Hunt is a big step up for him given his best opponent thus far has probably been Chase Sherman. We know exactly what Hunt offers at this stage – and what he doesn’t offer, too. So for me this fight comes down to two factors:

Firstly, can Willis absorb a big shot from Hunt, who is still an extremely dangerous striker? It’s notable that he does have two TKO losses on his record – one as an amateur – and hasn’t really been hit heavily by any of his three UFC opponents thus far. If he does take a big shot, he does have his wrestling game to fall back on, but that may well rely on the second factor.

That factor is what kind of shape Willis comes into the fight in. Despite his chubby physique we know that Hunt isn’t likely to gas out – he’s gone 5 rounds twice in the UFC and had enough left to take out Derrick Lewis in the 4th round of their fight. Willis meanwhile looked extremely tired in his 3-rounder with Sherman earlier this year despite largely bossing the fight.

Given Hunt’s waning durability and the general power in all areas of Willis, I’m favouring the American prospect here, but it’s a close one to call and if ‘The Super Samoan’ can land one of his killer blows, he may well end his UFC career on a high. But overall I just can’t trust a man who’s 44 and is clearly coming close to the end.

The Pick: Willis via second round TKO